The Braves won their sixth straight tonight, 4-2 over the Marlins.  Grant Holmes went six shutout innings, turning in his best start of the season.  Kenny Powers has big league stuff, but he’s been terribly inefficient and inconsistent.  Tonight he only needed 71 pitches to complete those six innings.  He probably would have gone even deeper in the game, but when he allowed the leadoff batter to reach in the 7th, Weiss employed a quick hook.  At that point the Braves were clinging to a 1-0 lead (thanks to an Ozzie homer).  Dylan Dodd (what a revelation he’s been!) got a quick flyout and a GIDP to escape any damage.  Austin Riley knocked a two run blast in the bottom of the 7th to give a 3-0 cushion.  Dylan Lee shut them down in the 8th, and the Braves got an insurance run in the bottom of the inning, on a Ronnie single, a HBP, a walk, and a wild pitch.  That insurance was helpful in the 9th, as Iglesias had a shaky outing.  He gave up a couple of runs on a walk and three hits, but the Marlins inexplicably attemped a double steal and Baldwin nailed the lead runner to end the game.

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I don’t know if you’ve heard, but yesterday was the MLB trade deadline.  Everyone agreed the Braves’ number one priority was to acquire a front-line starter, someone you’d feel comfortable slotting in behind Chris Sale to start game two of a playoff series.  Because Alex Anthopoulos did not get such a pitcher, he’s been subject to more acrimony from Braves fans than at any time in his tenure in Atlanta.

After all, no one wants to see Bryce Elder, Martin Perez, or Grant Holmes starting that playoff game.  On the other hand …

In their last three starts, Elder went six, giving up one run; Perez went seven shutout, surrendering just one hit; and tonight Holmes went six shutout innings. Who needs an additional starter anyway?  Who would you rather have, Tariq Skubal or Grant Holmes? Well, for tonight at least, Holmes was better. Skubal, in his first start for the Dodgers, pitched well, but surrendered two runs in six innings and took the loss against the Cubs.

Of course I’d like to have Skubal (or deGrom, or Mize, or Detmers, etc.).  But the point is, having the guys we did not get would not guarantee success, and the guys we have are capable of getting the job done.

Here are few of my thoughts, which are mine, about AA and the trade deadline:

–I start with the assumption that AA is a pretty smart guy, that he has more information at his disposal than any of us do, he works hard, and he wants to win. He might be mistaken or make an unwise decision. But it’s not that he doesn’t care or doesn’t understand what’s at stake.

–I saw some commenters on some sites suggest that Anthopoulos has given up because the Dodgers will inevitably win the World Series this year. AA is smarter than that.  Even with Skubal, the Dodgers only have about a 30% chance of winning it all.  There is a 70% chance someone other than LA will go all the way, so you might as well do your best to be that someone.

— It’s fair to criticize trades that were made. All of us can evaluate whether the value we gave up was worth the value we got in return.  It’s tougher to criticize trades that weren’t made.  We don’t know exactly who was available, what AA was willing to give up, and what it would have taken to get the guy we wanted.

–It may be that AA is too in love with our own prospects. His post-deadline comments indicated a reluctance to part with our top prospects, for fear of giving up future ROYs like Baldwin or Harris.  We all know that no prospect is a sure thing, and that overly optimistic views of your own prospects can lead you astray.  On the other hand, AA knows more about our prospects than any of us do (except for snowshine, of course).

–The basic problem is that predictions, especially about the future, are difficult.  Many of us remember the Smoltz/Alexander trade.  Folks often call that a win/win for both teams. Alexander was phenomenal for the Tigers; they would not have won the pennant without him.  But in retrospect, would you rather have 20 years of John Smoltz or 2 months of Doyle Alexander?  The gold standard for deadline deals is Fred McGriff for three guys, the best of whom (Melvin Nieves) accumulated negative 2.7 bWAR in his career. Obviously it was smart to give up those guys for a future HoFer who led the team to a division title after the deadline and a world series title two years later.  But I also remember Len Barker for Brett Butler and Brook Jacoby.  The prospects we gave up were about twenty times more valuable than what we got in Barker.  It can go either way!

–Much of the criticism of AA is based on how the missed opportunities to acquire a top starter hurt our chances in October.  I’m not convinced. I do believe that most of us have not truly internalized how randomness affects the postseason; it’s more of a crapshoot than we like to admit.  All Braves fans from the 90’s know that even three HoF starters do not guarantee a WS victory. And in 2021, the Braves didn’t exactly run top tier starters out there every game. In fact they had two bullpen games out of six, with Dylan Lee starting one of those in only his third big league appearance.

–AA also emphasized that he must balance short term vs. long term goals.  I think he means that he won’t sacrifice long term competitiveness for one big shot for all the marbles.  I for one appreciate that approach.  But I recognize that a lot of folks disagree. Flags fly forever and all that.  Roger asked today, would you rather have one World Series win (without any other success) or ten division titles without a world series win?  In the 25 years between 1996 and 2020, the Marlins won two world series, 1997 and 2003, and our Braves did not win any.  But the Fish never won a division title in that quarter century—even in the years they won the series they made the playoffs as a wild card.  They only finished second five times in those 25 years, and never really competed for first.  The Braves in that same stretch won 13 division titles and made the playoffs as a wild card twice.  Of course they did not win the world series during that stretch.  Even so, I’d helluva lot rather be a Braves fan than a Marlins fan.  It’s a lot more fun to be in a pennant race most years than to be hopeless by August.  But your mileage may vary.

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Tomorrow night our guys go for seven in a row behind Bryce Elder.  We live about 15 minutes from the ballpark, and we’re planning to go.  This team is a joy to follow.