Do Rats Really Desert Sinking Ships?
Yep… it’s me again. Rusty S. had something better to do. I didn’t even ask, because almost anything is preferable to this. Hello to all of you who have remained on board, even as the prow points to the bottom of Davy Jones locker, which I’m looking forward to because I assume it is full of Monkees paraphernalia.
Buehler?
I indirectly speculated on Friday that we might see Walker Buehler very soon, and I was correct, as he will be wearing Phillies garb tonight. (Actually… he has to pass a physical first, but I assume he’s lurking somewhere.) The MLB press release says that the Phillies will only be responsible for around 1/6th of the MLB minimum, but if I were Buehler’s agent I suspect I could have (and did) get more than that. There aren’t a lot of starting pitchers, even iffy ones, who can appear out of nowhere in time to make their playoff roster, so I suspect Buehler had a lot of leverage.
Even more interesting, the Red Sox would have had to hold Buehler on waivers first, so that anyone who wanted him could have him for about $4 million or so for the rest of the season and the Phillies obviously didn’t bite. I’m sure there’s something I don’t understand here, so maybe the rest of you can tell me why the Phillies risked not getting Buehler just to save a lousy few million dollars if they really thought he could start playoff games for them.
The Game
Third against Jesus Luzardo. Both began K-K-43. This got me thinking about trying to find games where both pitchers did exactly the same thing in the same inning. More about that later.
Both pitchers were very good. Third loaded the bases with one out in the third but got Schwarber to strike out and Harper to bounce out. He served up a meatball to Marsh in the 4th and it was 1-0. That lifted his ERA just above 1.00.
Luzardo didn’t give up a hit until the fifth when Harris singled with one out. Harris got out of a pickle — the first time I’ve seen that in a while — and White walked to get him to scoring position, but Murphy’s strikeout ended the threat.
Third came out after 6 2/3 giving up only 4 hits and striking out 9, though he did walk 4, one intentionally, His ERA now sits at a Gibsonian 1.01. Luzardo also exited after 6 2/3 having only given up 2 singles to Harris.
In the 8th, Orion Kerkering (which I believe is Greek for “Hunter Stratton“) loaded the bases with no outs before being replaced by Tanner Banks. Olson tied the game on a groundout, bailing out Third. A strikout and groundout ended the inning tied.
For the third night in a row, the teams were tied 1-1 going to the bottom of the eighth. (Something else to check when I get a chance…) Tyler Kinley had an uneventful 8th. In the top of the 9th, Fraley reached on a Alvarado misplay and Baldwin unleashed a two out homer to give the Braves a 3-1 lead.
For some reason, Snit chose not to go to Hunter Stratton for the save, going instead with Raisel Iglesias. He used 8 pitches last night, but he was really inefficient tonight — 11 pitches.
Statistical Anomalies
Well, I ran the program to see how often two pitchers have had exactly the same thing happen to their respective hitters in an inning. I got the answer, but then I looked back to the boxscore and I misremembered Olson’s at bat in the 1st inning, which was a groundout, not a strikeout. So this was not a game that matched the pattern I was looking at.
As it tuens out, there appear to be only 196 innings in MLB history in which the pitchers matched one another exactly. All of them were 1-2-3 innings. A lot of them have occurred recently, and all of them are innings in which both pitchers struck out the side (9 times last year).
The last time one of these innings came without a strikeout was this game 24 years ago. In the sixth inning, Maddux went lineout to left field followed by two 4-3 groundouts. Todd Ritchie did the same thing in the bottom of the inning.

Third?
That’s my nickname for Waldrep… like Thurston Howell III.
It also enables lame wordplay.
Thank you, Jonathan. You never fail to entertain. You have my vote for this year’s mvp.
Gee, Waldrep has been so great. Is it so unreasonable to ask that he continue like this for 10-15 more seasons? Along with Baldwin?
That game was all rookies. Amazing.
Short of any kind of collapse by Waldrep, he’s gotta have earned a spot in next year’s rotation, right?
Sale, Schwell, Strider, Waldrep…. Wentz?
Do you even fiddle with Lopez? Tell him he’s going to the pen and wait for an opening? Elder is out of options, right? He’s probably gone for a bag of balls.
Also, I love that we stuck Quantrill in the pen. Why didn’t Miami do that? Just collect arms, man.
I’m betting the Phillies aren’t expecting Buehler to get anywhere close to October, and are just hoping he can throw some bulk innings in September to give a breather to some of their more important arms.
This makes the most sense. Most likely, you’re expecting innings with below a 20% chance at October innings. It could happen but not likely enough to bet 4 million on.
Seems we just got next year’s SS, Kim from the Rays, on waivers.
Yes, it sounds like Kim has a $16 million player option for next year. I can’t imagine he won’t exercise that. If he’s healthy he’s worth that much.
As much angst as there was about Atlanta standing pat at the trade deadline, I actually think I understand and like their strategy now. They are picking up arms and decent players like Kim on the waiver wire, and since Atlanta’s ranking is so low, they get first dibs over the contenders. If Kim, Wentz, a bullpen arm or two and possibly Fraley (not a bad backup outfielder) stick, I think it will turn out to be a brilliant strategy. I like the auditions without totally tanking for the rest of the year. It is a very small sample size, but Tyler Kinley could be our best pickup from the Rockies since Pierce Johnson.
Kim was always supposed to be negative EV in 2025 and positive in 2026. The Rays just paid him for 2025 without the benefit of his healthy 2026. Weird move for them, but they obviously don’t see him providing the value they hoped next season. Kim was going to be my preferred option assuming we were priced out on Bichette, but I thought we’d have to trade for him.
We acquired him for a song!
(I’ll see myself out)
Re: Something better to do..
To JonathanF: Thank you.
To our readers: You’re welcome.
I despise the sac bunt to open the top of the 10th–even when it is successful.
It’s the wrong play…. just about always. In principle, there might be some matchups in which it makes sense, but those are probably also the matchups in which the hitter doesn’t know how to bunt.
Defensible in the bottom of the 10th, execrable in the top.
So, for clarity, Kim essentially has to be our 2026 SS, right? We’re pretty much locked into his PO, and we probably couldn’t trade him to clear his salary. So he’s going to be our SS next season.
I think that’s right. And if he’s healthy, seems like a pretty efficient way to get one.
Thanks, Johnathan.
He’s not far removed from a couple of five WAR seasons, so he’s certainly an upgrade over Allen.
recapped