The trading frenzy is over. The Braves have added:
- Lane Thomas, a better hitting, worse fielding, slower, Eli White
- Bailey Falter, a once-pretty-good pitcher coming off injuries, but who has looked pretty good in AAA (and terrible in limited MLB action)
- Tyler Mahle, who I think is probably our #3 starter today, after Sale and Elder.
- Brent Suter, medium-leverage reliever, probably somewhat better than Danny Young, who I hope kept his apartment in Lawrenceville.
- Duncan Davitt, rookie with 2 total MLB innings. He gave a run in one of them.
- Tyler Uberstine, rookie with 2 2/3 total MLB innings. He also gave up a run.
The Braves have subtracted:
Also returning now, or shortly, are Mendoza-Line Kim, and Iron Man Murphy.
Davitt and Uberstine are obviously there to relieve James Karinchak and/or Elieser Hernández if one of them gets lost on I-287 reporting for duty. Mahle will probably get the starts Reylo misses.
As you all know, I was the one willing to “dance with what brung you.” So long as the chemistry is not disturbed (whatever chemistry is) this set of changes makes us clearly slightly better and sacrificed nothing. That we got anything for Bart and White (that’s a wine cooler company), who would clearly have been released today is a minor victory.
So the people who are disappointed are the people who wanted a really good starting pitcher. I feel your pain. But only to a point. We have a competitive team, and AA made them better. We don’t know what deals he tried to make and couldn’t. And for all we know, Lane Thomas = Joc Pederson, or something.
What about our chasers, the Philadelphia Phillies? They got Luis Arraez, but they are reworking their defense in knots to make it work, moving Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott and Bryce Harper to positions they were deemed to be inferior in two days ago. This might work, of course, but it’s a big gamble. It’s a lot of work just to replace underperforming right fielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. They also got reliever Brooks Raley from the Mets, who have absolutely destroyed their pitching staff, trading away six different pitchers. I wish we had more than three games with them left.
So comment away, but if you’re going to discuss something AA didn’t do, I think it is incumbent on you to actually know what he could have done. So throw that in your reaction.
Also, if I missed something egregious let me know. I hear Skubal is now a Dodger.
Hear,hear! Well said.
Looking forward to the Bryce Elder game 2 start in the playoffs
Iron Man Murphy is a nickname that ought to stick. It’s right up there with Suitcase Simpson.
Murphy is kind of the anti-Olson.
Assuming the team makes the playoffs, it’s dead in the wild-card round. Good job, good effort, AA. Still cruising off the 2021 deadline deals.
It’s a real estate company that owns a baseball team, and it gets more and more obvious every year.
I didn’t see AA’s job as making his team incrementally better. It was to take a team that was succeeding beyond anyone’s expectations in the regular season, given its bubble gum-and-baling wire pitching rotation, and give them additional tools to have a puncher’s chance against superior NL teams in the postseason, without sacrificing the future.
In this, he failed miserably once again, whether for his own approaches and beliefs, management handcuffs, or some combination of. I don’t need to be in on his calls to judge the output. The team needed capable help in the starting rotation and AA didn’t deliver it, while virtually every other competitor found a way to fortify.
Excellent post. My hope was that we could get a pitcher like Mize who could help us out for several years. If that could not happen, I’m good with what we did. Like 2021, Braves scouts have seen a lot beyond current stats that make them feel good about these deals. Let’s hope they strike gold.
There is so little positive incremental value to these trades that by adding Kim and Murphy, we may actually be slightly worse.
I think Thomas>White, Mahle>Ritchie, Suter>Young, and, in expectation (though I know many may disagree) Murphy>Bart. On Jarvis versus Kim, I accept there may be some diminution, but I suspect Dubon is going to be doing most of the SS play now… I don’t think either Kim or Jarvis would have played all that much, as I think both are behind Dubon and Mateo…. but that’s just a guess.
[And it turns out to be a bad guess, since Mateo was DFA’d, which is an extraordinary show of confidence for Jarvis. I’m not sure how they’re going to handle the three guys playing short…]
I was halfway joking, but I see now the moves are Mateo DFA’d and Karinchak and Ritchie back to Gwinnett. Checking Baseball Reference, and make what one will of 4 months of estimated value, we have:
White 1.1 WAR, Thomas 0.4
Bart 0.4, Murphy -0.3
Mateo 0.7, Kim -0.9
Ritchey 0.2, Mahle -0.2
Karinchak 0.3, Suter 0.1
There is an argument this will change over the next 2 months, but yikes.
https://x.com/Jesus_Cano88/status/2084400004081258577
Not happy at all that AA couldn’t get a deal done for a front line caliber starter. Also not happy at all about retaining Kim and DFA’ing Mateo for a utility role that Mateo is vastly superior for.
Are they DFA’ing Mateo and not Jarvis? Where did you see this?
https://x.com/680TheFan/status/2084418274767331532 680 The Fan, among other places.
“Braves reinstated INF Ha-Seong Kim and C Sean Murphy from the IL and designated INF Jorge Mateo for assignment. The club also optioned RHP James Karinchak and RHP JR Ritchie to Triple-A Gwinnett. OF Lane Thomas, RHP Tyler Mahle and LHP Brent Suter were all reported to Atlanta.”
Thx. I confess I don’t understand Mateo rather than Jarvis. Anybody else get it?
Mateo is a terrible hitter. We don’t need any black holes.
Mateo is a bad hitter, but he is a very good defender and has elite speed. Kim doesn’t have any positive trait at all other than being able to play short, third, and second in a utility role, all of which Mateo does better. And speaking of black holes and HS Kim…
Apparently the plan is for Jarvis to continue playing everyday while Dubon spells our everyday guys around the field.
He has a much bigger bank account, though. If we had DFA’d Jarvis, we could have given Kim a month to prove himself or be DFA’d. I doubt Mateo will be around if he doesn’t, though.
It REALLY makes no sense to call up Kim and not play him.
I assume you mean option Jarvis and not DFA.
Yes.
My guess, and it’s just a guess, they don’t think anyone will pick Mateo up, so he can be like quite a few other dfa’s just hanging in Gwinnet with the hope of being on the playoff roster for what his intended purpose was–Manfred Man Mateo.
I like the alliteration, but there’s no Manfred Man in the playoffs.
I think it’s pretty obvious that good pitchers were available, but they required top 10 prospects. The Padres system is weaker, but they gave up 2 of their top 10 for Ray and their #2 prospect for Mize. Dodgers gave up 2 of their top 10 for Skubal. We could’ve made any of those trades. To get Skubal, it probably would’ve taken Hartman and others. To get Mize…probably Ritchie. Maybe you could get them to bite for McKenzie and another arm.
The fact is that AA didn’t want to give up any prospects for a rental, but if it were me, I would’ve tried to get Mize for a couple of our pitchers outside of Ritchie, Fuentes, and Cam. I think we’re close enough and Sale is actually healthy, so why not make a splash?
We could NOT have made the Skubal trade without adding MLB talent, i.e., Fuentes. The Dodgers gave up a 55, a 50 and a 45+ and we don’t have a single prospect currently rated as a 55! The deal for us would be Fuentes, Hartman and Sinnard. We could have topped the Mize deal though.
Why not just release Kim? He has literally no value.
Also, start the clock on the “days since a Sean Murphy injury” clock.
Sunk cost fallacy
Makes me wonder if McGuirk told AA he wasn’t allowed to DFA Kim because of his big contract.
Pretty obvious the suits at Liberty are very much on board for the impending lockout.
And I wouldn’t be surprised to learn, though AA won’t reveal it, that they had more than a small hand in the limited trade dealings. I think this was designed to take care of the people they really want to take care of, the shareholders.
Murphy has basically been on the IL for a calendar year. If he can hit about the Mendoza line, I’ll be shocked.
The Casey Mize trade was a 3-for-2 trade, but it was pretty much a 1-for-1 trade: Mize for Kash Mayfield. Mayfield is a 6’4″ LHP, was SD’s #2 prospect, was the 25th pick in the 2024, and was shoving in high-A. So would Cam Caminiti be his Atlanta comp? Mayfield is certainly a better prospect than Waldrep, Ritchie, or AJSS. So if the Braves would have had to have parted with Caminiti for 2 months of Mize, then I can see why the deal didn’t get done.
I’d love to know what offers the Angels turned down for Detmers.
I’m disappointed that we didn’t get a starter, but I’m the most positive person on here about our pitching. Now we can see what the kids can do down the stretch. Fuentes has only pitched 47 IP. He’s earned a spot in the rotation. I’d like to see what their plan is for the playoffs because there are a lot of guys that can pitch 2-3 innings and get outs in the postseason.
I doubt we offered Cam who is a good match for Mayfield. Detroit’s scouts (yes, plural) were at Caminiti’s last start where he had his best showing of the season. I’m guessing the Detroit brain trust saw Mayfield as potentially debuting next year while Cam is 2 years out and that was that.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/hornblower-group-appoints-john-coppolella-as-vice-president-of-sales-development-302393102.html
Did you guys know that Coppy has a fancy corporate job? I missed this. Man, the press release really glosses over why, ya know, Coppy isn’t a GM anymore.
He also writes for Baseball America.
Good for him getting his life back on track. It had to be a tough time being fired and banned from MLB.
Even Mark Bowman, who Mac nicknamed “Peanut” the puppet (inspired by comedian Jeff Dunham’s ventriloquist act) as he often acted as Schuerholz or Wren’s mouthpiece by parroting talking points in his articles, is openly questioning AA’s lack of a starter acquisition.
https://x.com/mlbbowman/status/2084434272639651970?s=46
In the playoffs they’ll be facing different teams than the ones they’ve been beating all season with mashers in the lineup and a shutdown bullpen. Not acquiring Reid Detmers and/or Casey Mize has doomed them.
The link that Kip shared is crazy. I bet many of the people yelling the loudest were the same ones lamenting that the Mets were going to blow everyone away because they had deep pockets. I also remember many lamenting several years ago that the Nats were much farther along in their building process than we were. Braves ownership and leadership is far from perfect but I will take them over those 2 organizations and many others any day of the week.
Couldn’t we have beaten the combined offer between the Yankees and Padres for Ray and Ramos?I think getting Mahle meant we were out on Ray/Ramos and Suter meant we were out on Adell/Soriano/Detmers.
In theory (WAR notwithstanding), Thomas is better then White, Kim is better than Mateo, Suter is better than Young, and Mahle is as good or better than ReyLo, Holmes, and (current) Ritchie. I think Mahle is our new Tomlin/McHugh guy. If we get AJSS and Schwelly or Strider (and get Suarez back) then our playoff chances are OK. Remember we had a bullpen game in 2021.
We got one good season out of Tomlin and then McHugh so maybe Mahle can come through this year.
Just generally, it seemed like the prices were extraordinarily reasonable. The Arjun Nimmala-for-Jose Soriano trade was the only one that felt expensive; the Cubs, meanwhile, got Clay Holmes, Braxton Garrett, and Kevin Gausman, and while Jeferson Rojas is a serious prospect, neither of the guys they traded for Garrett or Gausman seem to be likely to be more than a utility guy. The Guardians got Foster Griffin for some fine print I have to squint to read. It just seemed like a lot of guys were out there for not a whole lot, and we played it a lot more conservatively at the dollar bin than we needed to.
We absolutely could have afforded Skubal. I’m sorry we didn’t go for it with him. It sounds like we were in on deGrom but he nixed the deal, which is interesting – he’s a Stetson guy so I’m sure he knows Chipper. I’d like to know a bit more backstory there.
But I’m really frustrated we weren’t able to pull the trigger on someone who could be a playoff starter. We know as well as anyone that Gausman has the ability to blow up; we also know that he has the ability to be a horse. We improved our depth, which I appreciate, but we didn’t improve our front lines, and we still feel a little too raggedy up top for my liking.
P:art of DeGrom was 5 ish% state income tax which is around 1.5 million over this and next year.
While you never know what went on behind the scenes, I am disappointed. I do not see how we can win in the postseason with this starting rotation. AJSS and especially Schwellenbach would make a major impact obviously. It does not sound that we can count on Strider this season. Suarez ist also still not throwing. If everything goes perfectly with all those guys, we got a chance. But hope is a tough strategy.
And it’s not just hoping that Schwell can get back in the rotation. It’s hoping he can have the crisp arsenal and velocity he had before he got hurt.
I will say that AJSS has looked encouraging so far.
The only defense of AA that I could make is what I’ve been saying all year: we do indeed have a lot of pitching. And it’s kinda like last year. If everybody is hurt or doesn’t develop, then it doesn’t really matter if you make one more trade. One of Strider and Schwellenbach need to get healthy. One of AJSS, Ritchie, or Waldrep need to be effective. For the playoffs, Fuentes needs to become a consistent multi-inning reliever. Suarez needs to get healthy.
If the SP names I listed average getting you 4-5 innings in a playoff game, then Fuentes, Lee, Suarez, and Iglesias can pitch the last 4-5 innings of almost every playoff game. You just need a starter to get you through the order 1 1/2 times.
And the offense and defense look good, and they did improve the matchups at the deadline.
That’s my half-full take.
RE: deGrom
Does it also provide a defense for AA at all that there seems to have been a trade agreed upon for deGrom? Is it AA’s fault that the guy he wanted turned down the trade?
I’m not really upset because this is what I expected. I was really hoping for Mize but they may have insisted on Caminiti or Fuentes.
We are committed to a multi-year strategy of developing a cheap, controlled and talented pitching staff. I’ve been critical of that strategy. It’s not worked out so far but it’s still early in the clock for these guys. Trading half of them for 2 months of Skubal or Mize doesn’t make sense.
DeGrom would’ve been interesting and maybe that was the only playoff type starter we could get without giving up one of our top arms.
What we really should’ve done is just spend more on pitching, but we don’t have a Time Machine. Extending Fried would’ve given us long-term stability at the top of the rotation without giving up top draft picks and prospects. Whatever people say there is a number that Fried couldn’t have refused for an early extension. We’ve spent more on Murphy, Kim, and Profar the last 2 seasons than we would’ve spent on Fried. It’s water under the bridge now but you don’t fix that kind of multi-year bad decision-making through a deadline splash.
It’s not AA’s fault that deGrom exercised his contractual rights, but it is AA’s fault for having an all-or-nothing stance on acquiring starting pitching. If it was Skubal, deGrom, or nobody, then that’s on Alex. This has been a theme for several seasons. He needs pitching but he only wants to look at the top of the market, but the Braves have never shown any willingness to pay the price for premium talent via free agency or trade. He managed to wrest Sale from the Red Sox for a middling prospect with no clear position, but that was a horribly lopsided trade that is unlikely to ever be repeated. Unless he can get a guy on a one-year deal, he doesn’t seem interested in solid mid-rotation guys, especially as salaries for those guys have ballooned, but he really likes to set his sights on the deGroms, Skubals, and Sales of the world.
His comments last night seem to indicate he values the long-term “health” of the organization at the expense of winning this year. In other words, he wants to keep the prospect pipeline full for future seasons, but fans wanted him to fire those bullets now. That only makes sense to me if he doesn’t believe this group of players can compete with the rest of the field. The core of players is aging, contracts are running out or proving to be bad deals, and there’s a work stoppage looming. In a few seasons, this organization might be looking at a soft rebuild as guys like Acuna, Sale, Riley, Strider, Murphy, and Albies are likely to be gone. If you’re prepping for that by being conservative now, then what he didn’t do this deadline makes more sense.
The Braves’ ownership group seemingly does not micromanage like other professional organizations — the Portland Trailblazers suddenly come to mind — but this trade deadline failure is 100% the consequence of diffused corporate leadership.
A passionate owner would probably not allow this front office to punt on another trade deadline.
There have been many loses where I was completely frustrated but I’m not sure I’ve ever been this angry at the team.
Don’t we have enough depth that we can trade for one rental? Ray would have been a good use of the Profar money. The Phillies are built for the playoffs (+20 with top 3 and -20 with others). The only way to beat the Phillies is for them to not make the playoffs. The Cubs improved a lot. We should have done something more than we did. The Padres got both Ray and Mize; couldn’t we get one?
I never wanted Skubal; I knew the price would be too high but there were lots of strong SP traded and all we got was Mahle (in my eyes another Tomlin or McHugh or Kuechel or Hamels).
With regards to building for the future, who would rather have ten division flags than one WS flag?
With as many rounds of playoffs as there are and as many less-than-ideal starting position players, getting one more strong SP may not have increased the odds of winning the WS by enough to be worth the prospect cost. So the comparison may the possibility of one more NLCS or WS appearance this year versus possibly a few more division flags down the road.
I do not like how we match up with the Phillies in a short series. We have already lost to them a couple of times in the playoffs with this core.
Anyone remember who the second best team in the AFL was when the Steelers were winning all their championships in the 70s? I was a big Oilers/Earl Campbell fan…..
https://x.com/mlbbowman/status/2084685912231830005?s=20
Man, I freaking love this. Dubon is the gift that keeps on giving. I have to wonder if we would be properly using such an impressive super sub if Snit were still here.
Between the 3 OF spots, SS, and 3B, Dubon will definitely continue to play everyday. He certainly should spell Harris in CF and Jarvis at SS against LHP, certainly should give Acuna his fair share of days off, and should still give Riley a day off regardless of the pitcher on the mound.
They also should be working into the WAR algorithm just how valuable this versatility is. This easily adds a win onto our season total, so if he’s a 2 WAR player, he’s really a 3 WAR player. If he’s a 3 WAR player, he’s really a 4 WAR player. I would say the same for how well a catcher handles a pitching staff, and that’s undoubtedly why the trade calculators and prognosticators don’t understand why Adley Rutschman fetched so much in trade.
I would offer him $24 million over 3 years right now and see if he bites. Of course with AA the third year will be a team option.
Jorge Soler just DFA’d. Is Duvall also available?
Considering they just DFA’d McCutchean and Gamel, maybe they take a flyer on Soler…..
Eddie Rosario is tanned and rested.
If we had a 30 man roster I’d take a flyer. I think he can still be a platoon DH. He is starting to have more trouble making contact as he ages and he isn’t walking as much now though.
He might have ruined his chances for another Braves stint when he charged the mound earlier this season.
The Braves released McCutchen, Gomber, and Gamel. Presumably it’s a courtesy to catch on as depth for another contender where they might have a chance to make the roster. Wasn’t going to happen here.
An Austin Riley blast… nice.
And quite an effort from Kenny Powers tonight.
Bendix is no dummy, and he was smart to grab Vodnik. Vodnik isn’t doing himself any favors, but when he figures out his 1-2, he’s gonna lead the league in saves. He’s Sliderman if Sliderman threw gas.
what
That was a tight game that ended on a stolen base attempt. I have never seen that before in my life. I’m reasonably confident I’ve never seen any game end on a caught stealing, but I’m incredibly confident I’ve seen no close games end that way.
That’s wild. But it did take a perfect throw to get the out. Luckily we have the perfect catcher.
Pretty sure Babe Ruth ended a World Series in the 1920s getting caught stealing as the tying run. Can’t blame you for not having seen it, though.
Before this year, there were 544 games that ended on a CS. Just about all of them were close. There were six last year:
BAL202509110 CS2(24)
ATH202505250 CS2(26)
TEX202504200 CS2(24)
WAS202504050 CS2(26)
PHI202504040 K+CS2(26)/DP
TOR202504020 CS2(24)
The last game that ended on an attempted steal of 3rd base was
ANA200308260 K+CS3(25)/DP but the last one to end on a pure steal of third was last century
CHA199906080 CS3(25)
Damn, what a game. The reports of this team‘s demise have been greatly exaggerated.
I mean, I kinda understand the compulsion to get the tying run to 2nd on that double-steal attempt, but… in practice, the Fish did us quite a favor by trying it.
Iglesias wasn’t really fooling anybody that inning… 6 in a row now, lead stays at 7.5.
Half a game behind the Dodgers.
Two games worse than the Brewers.
Just an awful, awful team that will get destroyed in the playoffs because the starting pitching is awful. (not counting Sale) Shoulda traded Adam Wainwright for Casey Mize.
Recapped