On a night when the wind chill dipped into the 20’s, the White Sox defeated the Braves 3-2. It may be the South Side of Chicago, but it’s still too far north to play baseball on April 2. Reynaldo Lopez, in his first start for the good guys, was masterful against his old team, going six innings and surrendering just one run on four hits, with five punchouts. But the Braves only managed two runs on the night, on two solo shots by Marcell the Mime. And with single runs in the 7th and 8th off Minter and Pierce Johnson, the Chisox eked out their first victory of the season.

The Braves had their chances to tie or take the lead in the 8th and 9th, but came up short. In the 8th, the Braves loaded the bases with one out, with Austin Riley at the plate.  It was his 27th birthday, so what a storybook scenario! Alas, he grounded into an inning-ending double play. In the 9th, Ozuna homered to bring the lead back to one run, and two more men reached, but TDA popped out to end the game. (Speaking of birthdays, the great Emmylou Harris was born on April 2. In addition to all her other qualities and talents, she is a committed fan of the Atlanta Braves.)

I said the other day that Charlie Morton is as good a number 4 starter as you could hope to have.  Reynaldo Lopez won the fifth starter job in Spring Training.  Based on his performance in last night’s game, I predict that Lopez will be the best number 5 starter in the league.  The statisticians among you may object that a sample size of one game is a bit small for projections over a season. And it’s true that the opponent was only the White Sox, and the temperature was so cold that no one could be expected to hit much.  But I really like what I saw from Lopez. He did not allow a baserunner until the 4th, and the one run he allowed in the 6th scored on a bloop single on an 0-2 pitch that jammed the hitter. That batter, by the way, was one Gavin Sheets (son of Larry—remember him?), who had an OPS of .599 last year; that he was batting cleanup tells you all you need to know about how far the White Sox have fallen in the last couple of years.

Although Lopez looked great, it’s too early to make projections that have even the slightest meaning or reliability about any player or team.  But if you don’t worry about significance or accuracy, it’s not too early to have fun with projections!  The Braves dropped to 3-2 on the season, for a winning percentage of .600.  That percentage would yield 97 wins on the season. Given last year’s lofty record and the high expectations coming into this season, 97 victories might seem like a letdown.  But at current winning percentage of .400, the Phillies will finish with 65 wins.  I’ll be satisfied to win the division by 32 games. And at current percentages, the Nats will go 40-122.  That’s not great, but it’s 40 games better than the Mets and Marlins, who are each on pace to go 0-162.

But the current winning percentage of .600 doesn’t accurately reflect how well the Braves are playing so far. They’ve won three blowouts and lost two one run games. So let’s look at Pythagorean projections, based on runs scored and runs allowed.  The Braves should be 4-1, which projects out to 130-32.  I’ll take that.

So far so good, then.  The Braves have one more game this afternoon in the great frozen north before heading home.  Game time forecast calls for 36 degrees with snow and 17 mph winds. It should be fun to see the Sox try to hit Spencer Strider in that weather.