Good news / bad news!
Good news
After their first two-game losing streak of the season, we won the getaway game in convincing fashion, behind another good performance by Chris Sale, four strong innings of work by the bullpen, and two-hit performances by both Ronald Acuña Jr., who scored twice, and Austin Riley, who drove in two.
Bad news
Much of the Braves’ offense over the past two games has come courtesy of some woeful Seattle defense; twice in the past two games, the Seattle pitcher has thrown the ball away, leading to a run, and right fielder Mitch Haniger contributed an additional two-base error, a pop fly that kicked off the heel of his glove. That misplayed can of corn led to the decisive four-run rally in today’s game. All four runs were “unearned,” because Haniger’s error was sandwiched between groundouts by Michael Harris II and Chadwick Tromp.
In all, the Mariners outhit us 10-6 in today’s game, as the Braves failed to record a hit after the gifted fourth-inning rally.
What’s going on?
I don’t want to overthink this. It’s a month of baseball, and the Braves are 20-9, best in the bigs. Our 157 runs scored are tied with the Brewers and Orioles for fourth-best in the majors – no team in the American League has scored more, but three teams in the NL West have. Our run differential of +48 is second in baseball, behind the surprisingly mighty Kansas City Royals.
Despite the fact that half the lineup has been slumping for two weeks, not including today’s games, we have the second-best OPS in baseball (second-best OBP, third-best slugging). The Braves have the ninth-best ERA in baseball (though the fourth-best xFIP); the best WPA/LI; the fourth-best defense, as measured by Fangraphs; and so on.
Coming into this year, this team was expected to be excellent, and these last two weeks have demonstrated why. Despite major slumps by Matt Olson and Austin Riley, a power outage by Ronald Acuña Jr., an injury to Sean Murphy, and the loss of Spencer Strider, the team has not broken its stride. That’s because unluck is part of baseball, and this team has demonstrated resilience. The pitchers stepped up, the reserves managed just enough, and the team continued winning more games than it lost.
This isn’t just outcome-based analysis: I’m not saying the team won because it knows how to win or anything woo like that. All I’m saying is that after Opening Day, almost no one is at full strength, and the most important thing is just to bank as many wins as you can and hold on for dear life. Nobody can take away from us the 20 wins we’ve got, and if Austin and Ronald start hitting again, watch out.
Los Angeles, here we come!
The team has been getting great starting pitching recently which has picked up the slack from the offensive slump.
I think that’s exactly right, Alex. Good teams are over 500 even when they aren’t playing well… Not this far over 500 maybe, but no one turns down luck. There will be another stretch of the season where we play well and go barely over 500. There will be a stretch where we play badly and play around 450. We know this team is capable of more. At this point I’d settle for bad play and 100 wins and then turn up the play in October.
I’ve really enjoyed watching Sale pitch this year. He now leads the pitching staff in fWAR, just ahead of Lopez, who’s also been amazing. Where would we be right now without those two?
Meanwhile, Vaughn Grissom didn’t win a job with the Red Sox and is still at Triple A.
I think Vaughn could be in for a Mark DeRosa-like career, or possibly Tony Graffanino. Both of them struggled in their first go-round with the Braves, but they eventually settled in for long, productive journeyman careers, Graffanino as a sure-gloved utilityman with an acceptable enough stick and DeRosa as a pretty good hitter with a not-atrocious glove. Neither was a full-time player for the majority of their careers but both managed it for a time. Vaughn’s clearly got bat-to-ball skills and he’s still just 23, and I’m quite comfortable predicting he’ll spend a decade in the big leagues. I’m rooting for him all the way.
Re: Grissom, in fairness, he got hurt in Spring Training, and I’m pretty sure he’s just been in the minors on rehab. I’ve seen it reported they were planning on starting him at 2B this year before his injury.
Prediction: Braves offense explodes when they get back home.
And, for the moment, the rotation is looking formidable. (Our starters are 3rd in the NL in ERA @ 3.57; Philly’s 1st @ 2.50, but their bullpen is @ 5.19, while ours is 3.47.)
Of course, the lineup we’ll face this wknd is a helluva lot better than Seattle’s, probably better than any lineup we face all year.
FWIW, we lead MLB in runs scored per game (5.41), despite the slumps. (Due to rainouts, we’ve played the fewest games in MLB so far.)
Yup, keep banking wins, take more series than we drop & we’ll be fine. Hopefully, we can navigate a .500 road trip.
I’m super excited to face the Dodgers.
Generally, excellent teams bring out the best in us, and I think our guys absolutely love an October preview showdown as it gives them the chance to settle the debate on the field. “Oh, you guys think you won the offseason? Let’s see who wins the games.” For Riley and Olson, who have been hitting them on the screws but just can’t quite get off the schneid, and for Acuña, who’s hitting the ball super hard but clearly doesn’t have everything clicking, I think they’ll just thrive in this kind of atmosphere in a way that playing the Marlins for the billionth time just can’t provide.
Also, as a member of the human race – Ohtani versus Fried? Uncle Charlie versus Mookie Betts? Yamamoto versus Acuña? I can’t wait!
As to the question of why there are so many fewer homers this year:
I just saw an article about Elly being on a 40-90 pace and the Orioles hitting HRs at a “historic rate”, I think things have got to even out. It is very frustrating to watch the Braves consistently hitting balls to the warning track and then Garver hits one out.