As you know, this year’s Braves team has been an offensive juggernaut, setting all kinds of hitting records. Friday night in Tampa, our guys only had two hits. But no problem; they won anyway. In an old fashioned pitchers’ duel, the Hammers topped the Rays 2-1, Charlie Morton over Tyler Glasnow. One of the Braves’ two hits was a two run shot by Sean Murphy. Morton surrendered one home run himself, a solo blast by Wander Franco in the first. But Charlie did not yield another run in his six and a third, and Minter, Anderson, and Yglesias blanked them the rest of the way.
A lot of folks have called this weekend series with the Rays a preview of the World Series; they have indeed been the best teams in their respective leagues so far. But actually, as JonathanF reminds us, the playoffs are a crapshoot. The odds of both teams making the World Series are pretty low. Even if they finish with the best records in the league, each team has no better than a fifty percent chance of advancing to the Fall Classic.
But that doesn’t make this series any less exciting. Although the Rays have fallen on hard times lately, having lost six in a row, they are still a very deep and talented team.
Our Braves had pretty much their best month ever in June, going 21-4 for a winning percentage of .840. So far in July they haven’t been able to maintain that lofty pace, having gone 5-1, for a winning percentage of just .833. Maybe it’s time for a clubhouse meeting. But don’t worry—we are not yet DOOMED! Winning Saturday would put the winning percentage for the month more where it belongs, at .857. A win either Saturday or Sunday (or why not both!) would also make this the eleventh consecutive series win.
I’m making fun of the DOOMED! attitude, of course. I do get a little frustrated when folks don’t appreciate how historically great this team has been. But, truth is, as great as they’ve been so far, there is a long way to go. Here is a little perspective. The Braves’ division lead is currently 9.5 games. On July 7, 1991, the Braves were 9.5 games out of first. As you know, they finished the season in first. On this date in 1993, our guys were 8 games behind—and two weeks after that the deficit had reached 10 games. In one of the great all time closing stretches, the Braves overtook the Giants and finished first.
Don’t hear me to say that the Braves are likely to squander this lead. Those pennant races of 91 and 93 were so memorable in part because they were so unlikely. The current odds of winning the division are about 99%, and rightly so. In fact, it’s almost inconceivable to me that they won’t take the flag, both because this team really is historically good, and the teams trailing them, the Marlins at 9.5 back and the Phils 11 back, are pretty flawed.
Spencer Strider takes the mound Saturday, against Redan High School’s Taj Bradley. I usually pull for local kids on other teams, but I’ll be happy to see the Braves get back to scoring at their customary pace of about seven runs.
I think the Braves were intimidated by Alex’s piece on the 1894 Braves and decided to enter a new dead ball era because they learned they couldn’t compete with the Beaneaters. It will hopefully be a 1 game era.
On March 27th, a $100 bet on the Braves to win the East would pay off $207, just about even odds. The same $100 bet today would pay off $100.03. Yep… you bet $100 to win 3 cents.
Winning a two-hitter thanks to two caught stealings, and the fact that after Glasnow came out, a rookie came out of the bullpen and threw three perfect innings, that’s just the most Rays thing ever. I’d rather be lucky than good.
Sean Murphy. AA is the best GM. Go Braves.
Great piece, tfloyd! Those were some special September nights, up late seeing if the Giants would keep pace or not.
I love this team and like its chances of maintaining their division lead en route to the title. The .857 winning percentage after a win today is both ludicrous and possible.
Happy Striderday, everyone!
I’ll confess that I wrote this recap without having watched or listened to the game. We had a family event that wasn’t over until 8:30 or so–and I figured I could then catch at least the last three innings or so. But the game had just ended when I was finally able to turn it on. Still, I really like the faster pace this year.
The main thing I would add to the recap is to echo Timo: Sean Murphy has been phenomenal. Two caught stealings in a run one game along with the only two rbi’s. Can’t get much better than that. He’s been terrific all season long, and his OPS is now .982. For several years I’ve thought AA was the best GM in the game, but this offseason I wondered whether he had over-payed for Murphy. As usual, AA knew better than I did.
Say something nice about Charlie Morton challenge [IMPOSSIBLE]
What a revelation Sean Murphy has been this year. Anthopolous just continues to amaze me. He recognized that the new rule changes would lead to an increase in stolen base attempts, so what did he do? He acquired a catcher with elite pop time and arm strength and then quickly locked him up for the next several years on a team-friendly extension.
No kidding. Incredible.
Acuna is the clear MVP frontrunner, but given the criticality of his position and elite defense, if he keeps it up, Murphy is surprisingly close behind.
There are 7940 games (before this year) where a catcher threw out two or more base runners.
Of those, the catcher hit a home run in 485 of them.
Of those, there are 42 in which those homers accounted for all of his team’s runs
And of those, there is only one other game in MLB history where a catcher threw out two or more runners, knocked in all his team’s runs on homers, and his team won the game. It was this game https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS198907210.shtml where Pudge Fisk returned to Boston and the White Sox won 1-0 on a Fisk homer and he threw out Wade Boggs and Mike Greenwell on steals.
This was fun to program up….
Love it, JonathanF. You’re the Sean Murphy of Braves Journal to me.