It was Los Bravos Day, and the Braves were losers, baby. Sean Newcomb lasted only 3 innings, allowing 5 of the runs, and despite some occasional signs of life from the offense, that was ultimately all the Nationals needed. Bryce Harper hit a 2 run home run as part of a 3 run 1st inning, and Anthony Rendon added a 2 run homer in the 3rd. Newcomb ended with 6 hits allowed, a couple of walks, and 3 strikeouts.
The Braves cut it to 5 – 2 in the bottom of the 4th on a Tyler Flowers 2 run homer, but things remained dire otherwise until the 8th, when folk hero Charlie Culberson cut it to 5 – 4 with (all together now) a 2 run homer. However, Brad Brach allowed a final run in the top of the 9th, and the Braves could not get the tying run to the plate in the bottom.
Nick Markakis and Dansby Swanson joined 2nd Lt. Dans with 2 hits each.
The Nationals pick up a game as a result of the series, as do the Phillies, but 3 more games are in the books, and the lead is 6.5.
St. Louis comes to town on Monday.
I hope we start the NLDS on the road.
in terms of a postseason roster, are we looking at a 9 man bullpen? how are rosters generally constructed? in terms of position players, obviously 2 catchers, then I’m assuming Duda, Culberson, Lane Adams. but a 4 man bench is awfully thin. thoughts?
I’m confused also on the playoff roster. It looks like Sobotka has played his way on. I think Touissant had a chance but blew it in relief recently. Sam Freeman was borderline, but I think he’s done enough to get a spot. Any news on Moylan?
I’m wondering if Moylan will get a farewell relief appearance before the season ends.
Playoff roster locks:
LF Acuña
3b Camargo
1b Freeman
RF Markakis
C Suzuki
2b Albies
CF Inciarte
SS Swanson
Bench
UT Culberson
C Flowers
2 remaining spots
Pitchers:
1. Folty
2. Gausman
3. Sanchez
One remaining starter
Bullpen
LHP Minter
RHP Brach
LHP Venters
RHP Winkler
LHP Biddle
4 more relievers
That is 18 players who will be on the playoff roster for sure, barring injury. 7 spots are up for grabs. By my count, 2 position players, a starting pitcher, and 4 relievers.
An edit to my post above…I would consider Shane Carle a lock also. So 3 spots up for grabs for relievers.
@5 Julio is the 4th SP, of course.
We should seriously consider shutting down Newk for the season. It seems like he has hit the wall, and playoff is not the time for a player with low confidence.
and I have very little confidence in Julio after his last performance…
@4 Moylan is on the 60 day DL and out for the season.
I think the only way Touki makes it is as the fourth starter. If it were up to me Fried might be the fourth starter and lefty long man. He shows better out of the pen than any of the other prospects.
I don’t think that is how the Braves will roll. I think Newk and Julio are locks. That would be “old school” and I just don’t think the Braves will get away from the old school. I wonder if Newk could be a long man, though. Maybe him over Fried from my last post.
The biggest difference between starters and relievers is that a reliever’s 1st inning always has to be his best. Many starters have rough 1st innings and then find a groove. That’s true of some of the best pitchers in the game and why you hear “if so and so is on the mound, you have to get him early”.
Assuming the Braves will require one lefty starter, who would it be? Has to be Fried or Newk at this point; they’re the only ones on the roster.
I don’t know what’s going on with Newk, but I’m sure the Braves know. I wouldn’t be surprised if in the event the Braves clinch they give someone else one of his starts and all but shut him down.
I do think he stays on the playoff roster whether he’s the 4th starter or not. But man, you really have to hope we can work a sweep on somebody or JT matches up really well with another team.
Kaiser Permanente
on a scale from one to twenty
now rate the Braves a ten
their problem being not how good but simply, rather, when?
Newcomb will be on the post season roster. I don’t think he’s in the starting four, but he’ll be on the roster. They’ll carry him forward simply because he’s part of the team that got them there. They’re not going to give his spot to a September call up.
Lucas Duda will be on the roster as a LH pinch hitter I suspect. The last bench spot is a coin flip between Lane Adams, whom they’ve shown no faith in all year, and Adam Duvall, who has been a complete dud since coming over at the deadline.
There’s a nice little piece on Culberson at Fangraphs. Something I hadn’t quite realized: “In 71 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, he’s slashed a healthy .375/.437/.641. With two outs and runners in scoring position, those numbers — in a small sample size of 32 chances — are a stupendous .464/.559/.786.”
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-culberson-became-charlie-clutch-in-atlanta/
Snit has used Adams as a pinch runner a few times to good effect. But going into the postseason with a 9 man pen, but only 3 pinch hitters seems sketchy.
If you drop to an 8 man staff then Preston Tucker becomes the next in line. I do assume they’d take Duda, a much more established and dependable LH bat, than Tucker, if they go with 9.
I expect that Julio will be used in some late-inning bunting situations.
It’s when you’re using more than 2 pinch-hitters in a game that it gets dicey. You have two quality PH in Duda and Culberson, so the best use of the 4th spot is Adams. If you have to use a PH before the 6th inning, it’s very possible your starting pitcher got bombed, and if that’s the case, then you probably don’t have a great shot at winning the game anyway. And if you’re not trying to get Duvall or Ruiz or whomever roster expansion guy a PH, then just put Gausman up there to PH if you’re using a long reliever. I’d probably trust Gausman over Duvall anyway, to be honest.
Hindsight is 20/20, but it’d be nice to have someone a little faster than even Adams on the roster, but they obviously banked on Duvall being a legit asset off the bench and vs. LHP where Inciarte or Culberson could be a PR in a playoff series.
I’m not sure who else we’d realistically need in a bullpen if you already have:
RHP Vizzy
LHP Minter
RHP Brach
LHP Venters
RHP Winkler
LHP Biddle
RHP Carle
LHP Newcomb
You could then use that remaining spot to carry a 3rd catcher (turning Flowzuki into another bench bat) or Tucker.
@19 Sobotka? the non-starter out of Julio, Sanchez and Touki?
Realistically, I think you’re right though.
Assuming they win the division and don’t sweep their NLDS, they’ll definitely need the fourth starter. There aren’t enough off days to feasibly go with a 3-man rotation.
Actually, we’re all forgetting about Sam Freeman. So if they go with another pitcher, he’d going to be on the roster. If they don’t, then I think it’s Rivera > Freeman > Sobotka > Tucker in the fight for that last spot.
I think you keep one less reliever and keep three catchers.
You want to use Flowers/Zuk off the bench.
It would make sense to carry 3 catchers, but the Braves don’t seem to want to use Rivera much and that may not change. Since coming to Atlanta he is 0 for 3 with 2 strikeouts.
I think they haven’t used Rivera much because they don’t feel the need to get Flowzuki in as a PH. They’re still trying to give Duvall looks, and they’re also trying to get Flaherty, Tucker, and Ruiz some ABs. In the playoffs, they’ll have less options.
I see the group is heavily group-rosterbating while thinking about the playoffs…
16 — The beat writers all have said that Preston Tucker is ineligible for the postseason roster since he was acquired after 9/1. The only way he can join is to get a special waiver and approval from MLB.
I did not consider the following locks in my post above, but I would think Julio is the favorite to be the Game 4 starter and that Newcomb would be carried as a long reliever and extra left handed reliever. I also think that Duda will be on the bench as the primary LH pinch hitter.
Coin flip for the last guy on the bench between Lane Adams, Duvall, and Flaherty (would be an extra infielder).
2 bullpen spots to choose either Freeman, Sobotka, Jackson, or Touissaint. Probably Freeman and Jackson (though I’d prefer Sobotka).
19 — They are supposed to have 13 pitchers and 12 position players I think since that is the roster number that was finalized on 9/1.
Add Vizcaino to my bullpen options in my post in #27. He becomes a favorite if he is healthy.
Also add Rene Rivera to the last guy on the bench options.
@25 – Understood, but if you want to use Rivera in the playoffs, wouldn’t you at least want to give him some at bats to see what he can do and prepare him?
Let’s get some practice in at eliminating teams these next couple series.
Speaking of playoffs, the BJ Fantasy league playoffs started today. It should be noted that our esteemed editor and the league commissioner both failed to crack the top four, but somehow a fantasy virgin who had a horrible draft (because he knew not what he was doing) managed to roster-churn his way into a 3rd seed. Not sure how that happened, but I’ll take it.
Figure it out, Folty.
The walks are getting really old.
@32 Our esteemed editor finished out of the consolation spots, even.
Is this an Episode?
Damn it.
The book on our guys is out and it’s being read like a Dickens novel. Take pitches and let them throw their way into trouble.
If they end up blowing the division, does Snit stay?
I was not good at all at drafting. My team in the first half was putrid. When I stopped caring and stopped doing anything, my team did better. Are there second half splits? But I wouldn’t say I lost; I quit because it’s stupid.
Well, hopefully the Phillies and Nationals lose.
You just have to have dial-up internet access on your 1997 Compaq Presario to know that the Atlanta Braves starters will walk you whether you want to or not.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=0&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d
We are 3rd in the league in starter walks.
This is some epidemic that is going around….could the catchers have something to do with it?
either that or the curse of eddie perez in the bullpen
@37
Let’s not think like that. (That said, the answer would have to be no. Sometimes you need to satiate the angry masses with a drop of the guillotine, whether it is deserved or not.)
The good news for me is that if Chief beat me in fantasy baseball, there’s a possibility I’m following the right game of baseball after all.
We’re up 6.5 with 13 games left, so let’s not overreact right now. We may be the worst playoff team to get in, but I wouldn’t be overreacting about the division lead.
Well, 45 pitches through 2. After the horrendous 1st, you have to be happy with that.
4.42 staff ERA last 2 weeks. Need to do better than that.
I don’t get it. Even in an episode, Folty is usually giving up hits not walks. Four walks and a HBP in one inning??? Is it the humidity? It’s not raining.
I am getting more and more behind the idea that the catchers may not be setting up good enough targets. I mean it’s more than just the starters. Every pitcher gives up a leadoff walk. It’s insane.
55 pitches through 3 is even more palpable.
I don’t get it either, Roger. Such a significant staff-wide issue. If you look at BB%, which accounts for innings pitched or fewer team games better, Atlanta is dead last this month. Fortunately, St. Louis is 2nd to last.
I sure wish they would consider going back to hitting the pitcher 8th. In the last inning Folty could have bunted and then let Dansby hit with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs.
I don’t know why they didn’t put Camargo back at #2. That’s where he should be. Ozzie at #2 is not doing well.
I guess we need to look forward to the Phillies coming in so we can have someone we can beat.
Well crap. The shMets just blew a four run lead.
FREDERICK!
It’s about time Freddie smashed one. I hope that means he’s going to get hot.
They’ve got Mikolas up to more pitches than Folty. Over 65 pitches in 3 innings and still only two outs.
He had not hit a home run as a starter since August 14th.
Womp womp.
Dear Chip: any inning in which you give up a run raises your ERA for that inning unless you are a terrible pitcher.
Almost all of the damage in the first was with two outs. So frustrating to watch. Can’t understand it especially when Folty has looked ok the last three innings.
Both of those hits were on center cut FBs. Someone’s got to get Folty out of there. This game is quickly getting out of control.
He’s not even trying to pitch; he’s just throwing.
Can we please go on the road again????
Can we see Allard tonight? I really doubt the braves are coming back….
Stat quote. Braves are 5-23 when the starter does not go 5 innings. Oy.
Fish came back to tie the gNats and the shMets took a lead.
Worst first place team ever.
Well alright then. If we can’t take it, let the Cardinals blow it.
LOL. Mets just put up a 4 spot on the Phils in the top of the ninth.
Fish with a 2-run lead on the gNats.
If not for the good April and may, we wouldn’t be in this position. Really fortunate to have Preston tucker and the neck whisperer win us a lot of games then.not to mention Ozzie.
And as bad as things seem, we’re still better than the West leader and second wild card spot.
The 2006 Cardinals won 83 games in the regular season and miraculously made the playoffs and won the World Series.
@63 The good thing is that wins in April and May count just as much as in August and September.
SO close…. Freddie almost got it.
If Freddie is getting hot, that would change things pretty quickly.
@66 Darn right.
My Allard fixation BTW, is because I want another chance to see that he isn’t as terrible as he showed us.
How did Freddie not score!
Way to go Neck!!!
Whoa! Camargo almost tagged one.
Argh, way outside that pitch he swung at.
A rare bad cut for Camargo. Probably a bit anxious after his time sitting and just missing the homerun.
Philthies lose.
Both of those last balls Biddle threw were strikes. Very small zone tonight. And another strike missed. Biddle got screwed on that walk. Should have an asterisk by it.
Of course Holbrook screwed us against the Cards.
7 walks tonight. This is insane.
Sam Holbrook, Cardinals fan.
Fell off the tightrope.
Throw it right down the fucking middle, why don’t you.
GFY, Holbrook
Thank goodness the NL East is not good.
Well, Biddle got totally screwed. I saw at least 5 balls that were either direct strikes or definitely on the black.
At least the gNats lost too.
Fitting if this team’s postseason ends the way the Mets’ one did in 1999.
Nice, real nice.
Agreed on the first walk. Holbrook BS.
Terrible pitch call on the HR since it was the same pitch he narrowly missed for a HR on the previous pitch.
Biddle should have had a 1-2-3. All of that crap happened with 2 outs.
As bad as Folty’s control was in the 1st, Biddle was throwing great until he couldn’t get a call. He got so squeezed that he had no choice but to throw it center-cut.
If they had called that last pitch to Duda a strike, it would have been time to call the league office.
That’s about the quietest 3/5 I have ever seen. Ozzie needs to make this look better.
Ozzie has two walks tonight.
Aw, Freddie swung at ball four. Shoot.
I miss MVP Freddie
If not for the West Coast trip, we might set a new record for walks surrendered in a month. This is crazy. Didn’t someone here say, or was it Byrd or Medlen, walks are a rally-starter in the playoffs. Oh my.
Let’s sign Keuchel for 2019.
89
No. That’s a Joe Simpsonism
Glad to see all the strong support here for Biddle.
It was Smoltz.
Because everybody keeps repeating it… the “in the playoffs” part is weird. Walks are rallies in the regular season too. It’s the same game.
According to this, Holbrook actually called a decent game, though all six borderline balls that were marginally in the zone went against ATL (the green squares).
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php?month=9&day=17&year=2018&game=gid_2018_09_17_slnmlb_atlmlb_1%2F&prevDate=0917
recapped.