Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros – Box Score – August 09, 2010 – ESPN.
A pathetic act of baseball vandalism. Mike Minor pitched pretty well, but the defense was atrocious, and his luck wasn’t much better. He, at least, got a no-decision. The team wasn’t that lucky. If this game was a player, it would be Jeff Francoeur.
Minor breezed through the first three innings, and had a 2-0 lead entering the fourth after Gonzalez doubled in Ankiel with two out in the first (Minor should have scored Gonzalez with a single in his first major league PA, but was thrown out by the right fielder when the first baseman stood on top of the plate) and a homer, his first in forever, by Heyward.
The fourth was one of those innings that shows why BABIP is important and why strikeouts are the best kind of out. The Astros had three hits, four of them doubles, to score three runs, and none of the balls was hit really hard; the first two RBI came on a pop fly behind first base that a non-paraplegic first baseman (that is, not Troy Glaus) might have had, and a flare to center that went, maybe, 80 feet. It was sad.
Chipper and McCann put the Braves back in front in the sixth, Chipper doubling to lead off and Brian following with a long homer that did not move the leadoff man to third base with one out. That’s just not sound fundamental baseball. After that, virtually nothing went right.
In the bottom of the inning, the leadoff man reached on Minor’s only walk, then stole second (a good throw would have had him) and went to third on a weak grounder. Bobby brought the infield in, which I hate, but it worked, the ball being a soft grounder right to AAG, who booted it. Run scores.
Minor was out of the game in the seventh for a pinch-hitter; Chipper’s broken-bat fly ball with two out and two on was a little too hard to fall. And in the bottom of the inning, the Astros scored six runs after Bobby made the mistake — AGAIN — of bringing in Kyle Farnsworth. Farnsworth shouldn’t even be allowed in the state of Texas. By the time he was out of the game, a run was in, only one out had been recorded, Farnsworth had been charged with a throwing error on a routine soft throw that wasn’t even really a pickoff play that Glaus completely botched, and the bases were still loaded.
Peter Moylan didn’t retire anyone either. By the time he was out of the game, five runs had scored, three of them charged to Farnsworth, and the Astros had cleared the bases on a single to left field when McCann caught Hinske‘s sad attempt at a play at the plate and threw it into the left field corner. The only thing that inning was good for was to burn calories for Hinske. The game went on for a few innings after that but there was no real reason for it.
I’m going to hold off on severe pessimism (yes, I can get worse) until I see how the rest of this series goes. But man, this hurts.
Farnsworth shouldnâ€™t even be allowed in the state of Texas
Got JC’d in the last thread…
So Ankiel was .179/.258/.250 going into tonight, and was 0-4 tonight.
How long until McLouth gets another shot? The Ankiel/Farnsworth trade has been awful so far.
I think you give Ankiel a few more games, then hope that Melky doesn’t kill you too much in center.
I don’t think I can stomach watching Melky waddle around in center anymore.
Man I am trying to be positive, but I don’t see how this teams holds off the Phillies for the East or the Giants, Padres, Cards or Reds for the WC. We can only pitch Huddy once every 4 to 5 days, we can’t beat the Nats or Marlins, the offense is just a mess….c’mon Braves show me a sign.
Should we start a pool on the day that the Braves either DL or release Glaus?
I say Thursday if he doesn’t hit any in this series.
How in the world were 9 out of 10 of their runs “earned?” clearly, i don’t understand that rule.
we need a lineup of Prado Heyward CJ McCann Hinske Infante Ankiel AAG Pitcher
6 — Chipper and BMac are hitting well right now. Hudson, Hanson, and Jurrjens are pitching well right now. Even Lowe has been decent of late.
The errors only advanced the runners, they didn’t add any, and the Astros kept getting hits.
BTW, the Braves have lost 8 or 9 games since the All-Star break in which they led at some point. More Hibernation Mode than bad relief pitching.
A humble observation:
Gonzo (he should be deemed this given his defensive non-prowess since joining the Braves; tip o’ the hat to beloved Muppets) does not hustle out of the batters box. On a blooper to short center on Sunday, Gonzo could’ve easily made 2nd vs SF on Sunday. Tonight, on his liner down the 3B line, he pranced down the 1B line…only to slip over second, where he should’ve been thrown out in a run down at third.
I’ll be the first to say that I applauded Esco’s trade, albeit at the Titanic-esque depths of his trade value at the time; mainly b/c I thought the Braves were picking up a defensive somewhat-stalwart, who would hustle and be an intangible asset in the dugout.
Boy, was have I been fucking wrong to this point.
Homers aside, a couple of ESPN-worthy double plays notwithstanding…I’ve been incredibly disappointed with Gonzo’s overall play to this point.
I’ll still take Ricky Ankiel at this point…but Farnsworth has been nothing short of disasterous.
1.5 games ahead of the surging Phils.
The sky isn’t falling. It was nice to take 3 outta 4 from a playoff bound Giants squad. But DAMN.
AAG has actually been pretty good offensively for us, considering he is a shortstop. He was hitting .260/.333/.455 coming into tonight.
I have been a bit disappointed with his defense, but overall he’s fine and probably been better than Yunel was in the first half.
We are playing .500 balls since the all-star break which we have played horrible. It’s just a matter of us getting on a roll again. I am not too concerned, but we need a May/June version of Troy from the man himself or from someone else.
Jason is starting to get his power stroke back, which is a good thing to see. I think he will destroy the league for the rest of the season. I just hope Prado comes back and be the same hitting machine as before.
The only thing that helps with Braves losses is Mac’s recaps.
Thanks, Mac. Kudos on Hinske burning calories.
And yes, please hide Farnsworth as long as we are still in Houston.
WHO DECIDED WE NEEDED ANOTHER RIDE ON THE FARNSWORTH MERRY-GO-ROUND?
“A pathetic act of baseball vandalism.”
“The game went on for a few innings after that but there was no real reason for it.”
You’ve sure got a way with words, Mac. I should try and put together a list of my favorite Mac quotes, but that could end up getting pretty long. Do you have a writing background?
Post ASB numbers:
The Braves have 8 guys OPS’ing over .800 since the ASB.
The pitching has also been very good.
Frankly, the Braves have been playing a lot better since the ASB than their .500 record indicates. I expect the record to change to reflect the team’s performance.
So you feel good, assuming two things:
1 – we get anything close to what Troy gave us for a month back in May/June.
2 – Heyward “destroys the league” here on out, based on ONE home run since Adam & Eve were dealing with the Tree of Knowledge.
You have a better chance of winning Mega Millions than BOTH of the above taking place.
@20 – I wouldn’t hold your breath waiting for MLB to adjust the Braves’ record to add the several more wins that we should have had by now.
Mike Minor can locate his fastball well, which is already more you can say than lots of rookie pitchers.
22 — You missed the point. I expect the Braves to be fine going forward. I don’t really think the Phillies will sustain their performance like this without Howard and Utley.
I have a reading background — I AM a librarian, after all — and a lot of practice.
@21 Tiger224, no, I don’t feel good because I assume those two things. I feel good because we have been playing like shit but still have a .500 record. I think we will be fine.
If those two assumptions happen, we will be unbeatable.
Also, if you don’t see Jason is about to break out, you must be over-concerned with historical stats.
@24 Those two should be back before the end of August I believe.
Howard probably will, but Utley likely is out until September. Meanwhile, there is still a lot of August left.
I always find it weird when people are like “Howard and Utley.” Sure one guy’s good and would provide a minor upgrade, but it’s weird to lump him together with a true superstar who dramatically increases his team’s ability to win games. It’s like saying the Rays would be a lot worse without Pena and Longoria. It’s true, but one of those players matters a lot more than the other.
Have decided loss was all Minor’s fault, as if he had reached in the second to make it 2-0 the wheels would have come off for the Astros. Right?
To be fair, I think Howard is more than a minor upgrade over Ross Gload and Zombie Mike Sweeney.
Gonzalez has been an error machine since coming to the Braves. I’m not anti-Gonzalez, but what’s wrong with the guy’s fielding? He’s made some good plays, but his fielding % is .959 in Atlanta compared to .972 in Toronto. Not a huge difference, but it seems much worse – he seems to be making errors on easier and easier plays (by comparison Escobar’s FP is .975 for the year).
I still don’t think Farnsworth was a bad pickup. He’s had one not so good outing, a dominant outing and a bad outing. I’m not ready to give up on him yet. I will say that I’m ready for him, Ankiel and Gonzalez for that matter to play at a level they’re capable of.
@32 I think he is trying to impress and prove his worth, which is normal for a new player joining a new team. His range has been a lot better than my expectation, which I thought would be Edgar like. I think he will be fine.
If the choice is between Chavez and Farnsworth, I will pick Farnsworth anyday.
Yeah Mac your recaps are gems. I look forward to them every morning. Like here, the game obviously sucked, yet the recap made me smile several times. Keep up the great work!
Gonzalez has also made some pretty badass plays, too. I dunno if he’s being flashy on purpose or if they’re plays not normally made. Who knows.
Prado in and Glaus out should fix this team right up
@33: …between Chavez and Farnsworth, I will pick Farnsworth anyday.
Reminds me of that line in William Faulkner’s The Wild Palms:
“Between grief and nothing, I will take grief.”
@37 Well said!
BTW, don’t count on Moylan next year. These control issues and all the fly balls mean one thing — his elbow’s gone bad again. Only question is if he makes it to December and the Braves offer him arb.
The game went on for a few innings after that
Not for me it didn’t. A shameful display indeed.
At 4-4, I hopped a 7 train to Sunnyside to meet a friend for beers. When I got there, it was 10-4. Didn’t mind missing this debacle.
But let’s not get bent out of shape. We just won 3/4 from a team we really need to beat (Wild Card & all). We can certainly win the next two.
Nonetheless, nice work, Mac.
Always the voice of reason.
Hard to see a team make as many physical and mental errors in one inning with no ‘unearned’ runs.
I’ll instead focus on three major positives that I took out of tonight’s game, one being that hopefully Jason Heyward’s home run swing is back, another being that Chipper is really starting to hit the ball with some authority lately, and lastly being I was pretty impressed with Mike Minor tonight, one way or another he’s got to be in the rotation next year. He’s ready.
@44 I am wondering if Wren has the gut to piss off Lowe again by shopping him this winter, ha.
@4 I think you give him a few games and hope that McLousy doesn’t kill you.
Our biggest problem has been our defense. We have made a lot of errors of late it seems.
Last night makes me glad I didn’t pop for mlb.tv. You’re gonna have those nights. or what ububba said.
this is the list of starting pitchers available this offseason. unless we take on a REALLY bad contract, there’s no way we can trade lowe:
Bronson Arroyo (34) Erik Bedard (32)
Kris Benson (35) Jeremy Bonderman (28) Dave Bush (31) Jose Contreras (39)Kevin Correia (30)
Doug Davis (35) Jorge De La Rosa (30) Justin Duchscherer (33) Shawn Estes(38) Josh Fogg (34) Jeff Francis (29) – Freddy Garcia (35) Jon Garland (31) Chad Gaudin (28)
Rich Harden (29)Aaron Harang (33) Livan Hernandez (36) Jason Jennings(32) Hiroki Kuroda (36) Cliff Lee (32) Ted Lilly (35) Rodrigo Lopez (35) Kevin Millwood (36) Sergio Mitre (30) Brian Moehler (39) Jamie Moyer (48) Vicente Padilla (33) Carl Pavano (35) Brad Penny (33) Andy Pettitte (39)Tim Redding (33) Nate Robertson (33) Ben Sheets (32) Jeff Suppan (36)Brett Tomko (38)
Koji Uehara (36) Javier Vazquez (34) Brandon Webb (32) Todd Wellemeyer (32) Kip Wells (34) Jake Westbrook (33)
Dontrelle Willis (29)
how many of these guys are better than lowe? 4-5 of these guys have options that will probably be picked up, but there are at least 15 pitchers that i would pay 15 million to before even thinking about derek lowe.
It looks to me like Mikie neglected to clean the Vanderbilt stench off before making it to the majors. I have seen that level of ineptitude many times before.
I agree with Stu, I blame Vandy!
Ububba is right. Not the end of the world.
I really think we are on the brink of getting hot again. We are starting to hit homers and we are still getting guys on base.
I would rather be cold part of July and August and hot in late August through October.
I go back and forth between thinking the Braves are not very good and thinking that this is just a lull. On the one hand, you couldn’t expect the Braves to continue playing the way they had in May, June, and the early part of July. They just aren’t that kind of team and, even the best teams have lulls where they look bad and flat. Even the teams in the 90s had periods like that. And the Braves haven’t been horrible, just mediocre. Unfortunately, the lull coincided with the Phillies getting hot; but that’s what makes pennant races. The fact is, the Braves have played very well against some good teams, with winning records against the Phillies, Giants, Padres, and Reds. That bodes well.
On the other hand, this is a team with a small margin for error. They do (or did) two things well: get on base and pitch. With no speed and little power (although starting to hit more homers), they are really dependent on executing and getting guys in. But, increasingly with Glaus’ floundering, the holes in the lineup are being exposed. Ironically, Chipper is now starting to hit and it looks like Heyward may be coming around, but until they get Prado back, this is not a very good lineup. The defense has sort of collapsed (I think AAG is in a fielding slump and will likely turn it around.) CF is a disaster and it’s not easy having a statue playing first base, not to mention that McCann makes no one forget Johnny Bench.
A game like this, though, is no big deal. They happen to every team and you can’t get too bent out of shape over it. Some errors are so ludicrous that you can’t read anything into them.
Jurjjens and Hanson *can* fix a lot of what ails you. Whether they will or not is the question, but those two have the potential to shut down anyone.
So, I like our chances of winning the next two rather than our chances of losing the next two.
Agreed, but the way you gain some separation in your division is by beating the teams you should beat.
Just to get some offense, I’d be willing to stomach Cabrera in CF. Though there would be gurgling noises.
On the bright side, guys, the Phils didn’t play and we still have a 1/2 game on the Giants in the WC. We had a rookie pitcher in his first appearance who should have won but for the awful fielding. I’m okay with that.
Re: CF, I don’t care who plays there now. Everyone who has played CF this year is so terribly, awfully bad that it just doesn’t matter. The rest of the team just has to make up for the big black hole of suck that is our #8.
I don’t ever want to see Cabrera in center again. The thought of him waddling around in the OF because he didn’t take the time during the off-season to stay in shape just angers me. Ankiel has had a few key hits, but I admit that my patience is waning with him. From McLouth’s stats in AAA, .250 with a .775 OPS, it doesn’t look like he’s turned it around yet.
Do we have any baseball historians on here? I found a bunch of stuff from my grandfather, he was a minor league and semi-pro player in the 30’s & 40’s. I was hoping someone might be able to ID some pictures and other things so I might be able to find some stats and things. I’m putting together a package for my dad for his birthday, so he can know a little more about his dad, and I can about grandfather.
on one of dob’s latest blogs, he says that prado is the godfather to infante’s child. that’s really neat.
If you have digital images of the pics, I’ll take a shot. If you can scan & digitize the pics, you can email to djtimes at testa dot com.
I wonder what the Braves do if McCann or Ross have to go on the DL. Sammons’ .163 avg with a .484 OPS at Gwinnett is in Corky Miller territory. I guess JC Boscan is their only other option and he isn’t setting the world on fire by any means. Jesus Sucre’s .300 avg looks decent until you look at his .306 OBP. 1 walk in 120 ABs is enough to make Jeffy proud. I imagine backup catchers are in high demand if they’re placed on waivers, but we’re probably at least exploring the possibilities.
57—Very cool, thanks for sharing.
Question: what are the odds that one of Vizcaino, Teheran, Delgado, or Minor are not in the Braves organization next season as a result of an offseason trade? I think it depends on what happens with Chipper, but I’m curious what everyone else thinks.
I think it’s inevitable that one gets traded. The Braves will have holes to fill, even if Chipper comes back and I don’t see how they fill them without dipping into their young arms. At first base, maybe Freeman will be ready but that might be a stretch, they certainly need help in the outfield and, obviously, if Chipper retires, they will need help at 3B. They might need help even if he doesn’t because, at best, he doesn’t have much time left so they might want to bring someone in. I don’t see a lot of help in the short term within the organization. Given that the Braves are unlikely to go for free agents, I don’t see what else they really have to deal.
Michael, i say there is no chance all four are with the Braves.
at least one will be traded and one may be in Atlanta.
I am a little shocked that at lease one hasn’t been traded by now.
Vizcaino has the elbow injury, which limits his trade value. I’d be surprised if they trade Minor given that he just got called up, but you never know. Teheran is probably the next best pitching prospect, so he’s definitely a trade possibility.
I think there’s roughly a zero percent chance that they trade Teheran. Given Vizcaino’s injury, I think Delgado is by far the most likely to be dealt.
Delgado + Lopez + ??? ought to be able to fetch a rather nice, cost-controlled outfielder.
But keep in mind that we have a bevvy of good young pitching in Atlanta, so it’s not like Wren is banking on Teheran filling in a roster spot. He’s probably the most valuable trade piece in the minors.
Teheran is pretty much untouchable, I’d say.
67—Yeah, I’m aware of all of that. I still say ~zero percent. Best Pitching Prospects In The Minors don’t grow on trees.
I don’t like the concept of untouchable. If I were a GM (which I’m never going to be, for very good reasons) I’d never consider a prospect untouchable.
I’m sure he’s touchable (eww), but only for other guys — Braun, Longoria — who just aren’t likely to be traded.
I agree with that. Pretty much untouchable, though. If the Rays offered us Evan Longoria then I’d probably trade him.
Right but Longoria isn’t going to be traded any time soon, so it’s not overly exciting. Okay, who here would have pulled the trigger on a trade of Teheran for Oswalt and cash two weeks ago? Basically substitute in Teheran for Happ and the other minor pieces. I’d probably have done that.
That would have been a horrible trade, IMO. I would have been furious.
Teheran untouchable? Maybe. I would think that Minor, Jurrjens and Medlen (depending on injury) are available for the right pieces.
I think if a true difference maker hitter is available that the Braves would package a young starter and a reliever not named Teheran for him.
Year and a half of Oswalt and an option for 2012? With the other pitching depth we have in Atlanta and the minors, I’d make that trade.
That kind of reminds me of the Steve Phillips saying he’d trade Strasburg for Oswalt. Happ projects to be a 4th starter while Teheran is expected to be a legitimate ACE.
77—With the pitching depth we have, you’d trade the best of those young, cheap studs for…a pitcher?
A #1 ML pitcher who’s not nearly as highly paid as several SPs who are not as good, yes. Teheran looks great, but he’s made all of like 2-3 starts at AA. I’d make a run with Huddy, Oswalt, JJ and Hanson, no doubt, especially if all it cost me was a AA prospect.
PS – Strasburg was pretty special in the minors and the Nats had invested something like $15M in him already. That’s a different scenario because of the Nats’ unique situation. The Nats don’t have a Teheran or a Vizcaino or a Delgado in the minors, so trading Strasburg for two years of Oswalt with no other pieces to make a run for a title would have been short sighted.
Yeah, that’s insane. Note that even the Phillies only gave up Happ for him.
Insane, blah, blah. Thanks for chatting, it was fun.
@81, and got money back – that was the part that mystified me.
No. HELLLLLLLLLLLL no. Never. No way. My money is on Teheran being a better MLB pitcher than Roy Oswalt by the end of Roy Oswalt’s contract, and then you get to keep Teheran for cheap for a few more years.
Jeff, if the the Phillies got Oswalt AND TEN MILLION DOLLARS for Happ ‘n’ scraps (heh), why would you give Teheran?
Lol. And people got on me for wanting to trade Minor for Dunn.
Week 40: The Late, Great Townes Van Zandt | Music | Nashville or Bust | The A.V. Club.
spike, I wasn’t suggesting that Teheran = Happ + two others + cash. There are a whole lot of specifics about the Astros and Phillies ballclubs that I know nothing about, so I wasn’t weighing in on the value of that trade. I was just asking if anyone here would have traded Teheran for Oswalt and the same cash. I would (ignoring that it is a silly hypothetical) because Oswalt is a pretty special pitcher who I think would make it darn near impossible for the Phillies to catch us down the stretch. I have no doubt that Teheran PROJECTS to be a more valuable pitcher than Oswalt in two plus years. But I am sure of one thing: There is no way Teheran helps the Braves this year, and there’s only a chance that he’ll get a call-up by mid-2011. The Braves have too much pitching depth at all levels to bank it all.
I’ve actually been really junking out on Townes for the past 2 weeks.
I think Phillips’ point really was that it would have made sense for a team looking to win now (which the Nats really aren’t)to trade Strasburg for Oswalt. As it turned out, I’m not sure it would have made sense even for such a team given how Strasburg has pitched.
@90 – I agree that was Phillips’ point, and the Nats are not that team. Not only is Teheran not Strasburg, but the Braves are trying to win now and would not have depleted their pitching depth in such a trade.
I’m not saying it’s a no-brainer, but it is by no means an easy no either.
Not for Oswalt. But Teheran is only a pitching prospect. He shouldn’t be untouchable.
but Jeff K. you make a good point about win RIGHT now.
You might’ve been able to talk me into Minor for Oswalt + 100% of Oswalt’s contract. But not Teheran.
I think it’s an easy no. Very easy. Especially since they probably would have jumped at Oswalt and cash for a lesser prospect like Minor or Delgado. Neither of whom I would have dealt for Oswalt, FWIW.
@94 – Of course you give the Astros an old jock if they’ll take it. Not the point. The discussion thread was whether Teheran is untouchable. I used the Oswalt hypothetical as an example of how (I think) the context quickly changes an otherwise generic issue into a more complex issue.
Well, my main point is that Oswalt isn’t nearly as valuable a commodity as you seem to think he is. Like I said, Teheran could be traded for the right return, but Oswalt isn’t close to that return.
Fine, I respect the difference of opinion. And if the Braves go deep into the playoffs this year and next, and Teheran is making a big impact with the Braves by August next year, then I’ll say you were right. But if not, then I’d say the Braves should have added an SP like Oswalt. The fact that it would have kept Oswalt away from the Phils would just be icing.
Rediculous trade. Simply Rediculous.
@97 – Starting pitching won’t keep us from winning. It’s our offense that will keep us from winning. That really isn’t hard to grasp. We have the pitching in place – we need offense.
#95 – I think the old large budget Braves entertain the idea FWIW.
IMHO the Braves would trade Teheran in a heart beat if the correct combination came back. For example an MLB ready CF or a impact bat corner outfielder and a high ceiling SS or 3b.
Given the circumstances, if I am Wren I cannot entertain the idea for Oswalt though. Despite the money that came with him the Phils are still on the hook for 12 million IIRC. I know you were just throwing out a hypthetical but for a mid market team money is always the driving issue.
Astros fan is a wimpy douche: http://deadspin.com/5609094/chivalry-is-dead-man-ducks-foul-ball-before-it-hits-girlfriend
He looks like he watches a lot of Entourage.
Is “Rediculous” a word? A proper noun?
@100 – I have no idea about the budget, other than the Astros sent a healthy chunk to the Phils. Everything else is guesswork.
@99 – I’m not so sure that Lowe won’t be in our starting four for the playoffs. I wouldn’t say that we have the pitching (unless we suddenly start mashing again).
Just heard that the Braves have made more errors than anyone since the All-Star game. I think that explains our mediocre record.-
Cool about Prado being the Infante infant’s godfather.
Heard Werth was Utley’s …
Derek Lowe is fine as a #4, and I can almost assure you that he will be in the rotation if we make the playoffs (mostly because he has been there before). Now the only question is if Bobby will use him as a #4 or a #2.
Teheran isn’t ‘just’ a pitching prospect. Behind Hellickson’s promotion, he’s now pretty much indisputably the best pitching prospect in the minors. He’s not just your regular front-of-the-rotation prospect, either, if he stays healthy he’s going to be a true ace (by my ‘top-10 pitchers in MLB’ classification). You don’t find guys like Teheran unless you develop them yourself.
I’m always on board with the ‘nobody is untouchable’ philosophy, and the same holds true here, but there’s no way I’d trade Teheran for any contract that changed hands at the deadline.
I’d trade Tommy Hanson before I traded Teheran.
@101, Man, they ripped into that kid!
@105 – Well, gosh, I hope you’re right. But he is after all 19 years old and has just over 100 professional innings pitched, nearly all below AA. I’m probably not trading Tommy Hanson (who was #3 ROY and strikes out almost as many major leaguers per 9 as Teheran does Sally leaguers) before Teheran.
#105 – Pretty heady stuff. But its all conjecture. At the beginning of this season Jordan Schafer was on your fast track. Before you say it I know that Schafer isn’t the universally acclaimed prospect that Teheran is. But he is still just a prospect in the end no matter how many respected opinions believe he is the real deal see Marte, Andy.
Just saw Steve Earle do an Austin City Limits concert of Van Zandt songs on Sunday, really good!
strikes out almost as many major leaguers per 9 as Teheran does Sally leaguers
Hanson is 5 years older. So if you were to compare their preformances as 19yos it might be more meaningful.
Teheran – A-+A+AA+ 120ip
2.34, WHIP 1.017 H/9 6.7 HR/9 0.5 BB/9 2.5 K/9 10.4
Hanson – Rookie league 51 ip
2.09 WHIP 0.987 7.3 0.3 1.6 9.8
Does it not make sense that Teheran is far more advanced than Hanson (or just about any other pitcher) and that his projected value is high enough that you really don’t want to miss something this special for anything less than a jaw dropping return?
spike, I agree with what you’re saying, but my point is that Hanson has already progressed to the majors and is performing incredibly well. He’s eliminated all of the risk factors (injury, illness, lack of progress, poor life choices, etc.) that distinguish prospects from major league players. If PWHjort’s point was that he would have traded Hanson as a 19-year-old minor league player before he would trade Teheran, then I might well agree with him (although those numbers don’t make it clear to me). But that wasn’t what I understood his point to be.
Thanks Ububba, I’ll get some stuff together for you and email it.
FWIW, I would have tried to get Oswalt just to keep him from the Phillies. But of course, we need offense, and getting JJ back was just as good as getting a frontline pitcher at the deadline. As far as prospects go, the only one I can think of that we have traded away and wish we still had is Adam Wainright, and maybe Feliz.
And just to be clear, I’m not at all saying that Wren should trade Teheren — for Oswalt or someone like him. Wren and the coaches who know Teheran clearly know far more about his make-up than I do. The guy could be the smartest, most mature quickest learner ever to grace our minor leagues — things that don’t come across in pitching stats per se. I trust them to evaluate minor league talent and am not going to second guess that — I don’t have the information or training to do so. My point is really more that no prospect should be so highly valued that we forget he’s still unproven and so should not be evaluated as if he’s essentially a sure thing.
ps – I second the point about Wainwright. He’s a stud.
Tonight’s lineup: Infante 4 Heyward 9 Chipper 5 Diaz 7 McCann 2 Glaus 3 Gonzalez 6 Cabrera 8 Jurrjens 1
My vote: Glaus looks good at the plate and contributes offensively tonight or he’s benched/released/whatever.
#110 – so just for arguments sake:
A GM offers terrific player(s) that fill the Braves future or present needs. Who do you trade if given the choice?
Teheran or Hanson?
I think where we may not be seeing eye to eye is weighting the risk of failure. A draftee may have let’s say, a 5% chance of actually making it to the bigs. But as each hurdle is cleared, that percentage rises, and the risk decreases. Teheran has reduced the risk of major league failure considerably by demonstrating minor league success at a very early age. The odds of his failing get lower, much lower daily. There are certainly prospects that fail after dominating the minors. But it is the failures of the Martes that are what is notable because it is so infrequent, not the successes of the Strasburgs and Heywards, who dominated and succeeded.
spike, agree with you again, but Teheran isn’t nearly as close as you suggest. He’s had all of three appearances at AA. I can’t put percentages to it, but he’s nowhere near 100% likely to make the majors as a high quality pitcher. Hanson has already done that.
For the record, prospects have value.
But as much as a proven Major League Pitcher with Hanson’s bonifides? IMHO I think not.
Oh, I’m still hung up on the Oswalt thing. I agree that Hanson is more valuable than Teheran right now.
One problem, as someone alluded to, is the Braves can’t take the risk of trading prospects like they used to because they don’t have the resources to go out and get pitching in the open market. For a mid-market team, the most cost-effective way to stay competitive (not necessarily winning it all, however) is to develop your own pitching. But that requires having lots of it because the chances of any single guy panning out is pretty low. Trading Teheran would be a riskier move for the Braves than for, say the Yankees, because, if Teheran does make it, they have sacrificed those low-cost years of service and probably had to replace it with someone more expensive.
The fact is, it’s easy to say, go for it now. That’s what the Braves did in 2004 and they ended up with another division and no Adam Wainwright. (Admittedly, I don’t know if people expected Wainwright to be as good as he has turned out to be.) If you do that, you end up like the Brewers looking for pitching you can’t afford and struggling to be .500. I would never say a pitching prospect is untouchable but if it’s someone of a really high caliber, it better be a deal that blows you away, not a one-year rental. It’s frustrating but a mid-market team (whether or not they should be)can’t throw caution to the wind if they want to be competitive in the long-term.
All things considered (contract situation etc.) here is a list of the players I would consider for Teheran at this point:
Edit: Justin Upton (added though I’m not as high on him as most)
That’s the list (I may be overlooking a guy or two)
To suggest we should give up Teheran for a past his prime pitcher with a market-neutral contract is sheer lunacy.
No Braun or Longoria?
What does this mean, ‘unproven’? I’m not trying to pick on you or be a dick, but people say it all the time and I have no idea what they mean. I’m willing to bet a handsome (by my standards, aka low) sum of money that the Braves’ scouts don’t need any proof to know that if Teheran stays healthy he will be a very good pitcher in major league baseball. The risk of a career-ending or crippling injury certainly exists, but the same could be said about every pitcher, even the ones in major league baseball right now.
Seems to me like ‘unproven’ means either ‘uncertain’, which always applies, no matter the age, level, or development stage of the player, or ‘guy I don’t know enough about’. Teheran still has to get better, make some mechanical adjustments, get a little bit stronger in his legs/hips, et cetera. But from here I see nothing he has to prove.
Actually, I wouldn’t trade him for Kemp either–not with how awful at defense he seems to be. He has taken a huge step backwards this season. Meanwhile, Coletti doesn’t seem to value prospects anyway. He seems more likely to trade Kemp for an over-performing veteran. See the remarkable Carlos Santana for Casey Blake trade, for additional reference.
Stu, spike, and P.W. Hjort’s point is ultimately well taken. Prospects have value. Prospects like Teheran have a lot of value–like, “fetch me a bona-fide above-average major league hitter plus a couple other guys” value. They also have a lot of monetary value. To trade a guy like Teheran for Oswalt, even if it helps the team this year–and in my opinion this would not help NEARLY as much as would addressing the problems in the outfield–is to ignore Teheran’s market value. You might help your team marginally, but you’d be losing (1) what Teheran would give you, as well as (2) what else you could have gotten for him. While neither of those “returns” are concrete, they are roughly measurable and should be counted against Oswalt’s gain.
This is why so many here would go ballistic if that trade happened. It would ultimately be a net loss, because those values are real. If you trade Teheran to make the team better now, you’d better make it A LOT better than it would be with simply Roy Oswalt on it.
@126 – Uproven means that the prospect has never pitched against ML hitting talent and, especially for starters, the number of innings/appearances that ML starters are required to make. Uproven also includes the element of uncertainty that you describe, but ML players have proven that they can take the increased stress and workload. A lot of injuries happen when players in the minors have to increase the number of pitches they throw in a game and season and when they start trying to learn new pitches.
Unproven also means that they have not yet shown the ability to adjust to ML quality hitters during an at bat and through the season (what I’ve often seen referred to as “pitching” v. “throwing”). These are not skills that most pitchers have to master until the high minors.
Unproven also includes an element of maturity and judgment that, let’s face it, a lot of very young players do not have.