The two highest scoring teams in the National League combined for just 5 runs in the last 2 games of the series, with the Nationals taking them both to win the series 2 – 1.
Foster Griffin looked good for the Nationals, lasting 6 scoreless innings, allowing 3 hits and striking out 6. The Braves put their run on the board in the 9th and had the bases loaded with one out, but Orlando Ribalta struck out Chadwick Tromp, and then broke Ronald Acuna Jr.‘s bat to end it.
A James Wood walk and stolen base off Reynaldo Lopez in the 8th inning, followed by a fly ball to deep right and a single by Luis Garcia Jr. scored what proved to be the winning run. Ozzie Albies had 3 hits and scored the Braves run, but his effort was otherwise wasted, along with 2 hits by Austin Riley.
Martin Perez was solid again, throwing 5 2/3 innings allowing 5 hits and a run.
Last week in the comments I wrote:
“The Braves are on pace to win the division by 28 games, and we should expect that to narrow substantially and soon. If for no other reason than that it is really hard to play .681 over 162 games.”
The Braves are now on pace to win the division by only 27 games, so I feel vindicated.
There was a fictionalized account of a meeting between Mahatma Gandhi and Babe Ruth, where Gandhi told the Babe something to the effect of “Swat is a Sultanate with which I am not familiar.” There’s no record of Gandhi being aware of SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) either, but to understand why the Braves won’t win the division by 28 games it is important to identify the threats.
The strengths are self-evident. Second in the National League in runs scored and 2nd in OPS, and leading the league in ERA and 2nd in WHIP. The backend of the bullpen, Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez, and Raisel Iglesias all have sub 1.00 WHIP, and Lee’s ERA of 1.11 is the worst of the lot.
A list of weaknesses starts with Sunday’s 8 and 9 hitters. Ha-Seong Kim and Sandy Leon are batting .118 and .111 respectively.
Still, there are opportunities somehow to be even better. Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Hurston Waldrep are recovering from injuries and could strengthen the pitching even further. Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy should return from the Injured List, and I expect improvement from Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley.
Now threats. Injuries and regression are always the two main threats, and often regression is born from injuries. I won’t be blamed for jinxing any individuals, but all pitchers, all catchers, all players over 30, and all players with histories of injuries must be assumed to be the most vulnerable. “Regression” gets tossed around a lot, and while there are countless individual exceptions, we know that in the aggregate that it is a real thing. This also includes positive regression for the teams competing with the Braves – most specifically the Phillies, but the pack is wide open. And, finally, I suppose it’s possible that the first 52 games were an illusion, and only the last 2 games are instructive.
In conclusion, the main reason I confidently predict the Braves won’t win the division by 28 games is simply because it’s a 100-year event and 100 years aren’t up yet. Sure, it could happen but it’s not the way to bet.
*Note: I know none of us are predicting the Braves to win the division by 28 games. Just a caution that it’s a long way to October.
At Boston Tuesday at 6:45 Eastern. Chris Sale and Ranger Suarez scheduled.
All I’m saying is that the Braves I saw (I’m sure Riley’s hits were not consequential) looked a lot like last year’s at the plate. If you recall, about this time of year, the Braves were pushing .500 because the pitching had been so good. According to JonathanF’s charts good pitching and bad hitting equal about a .500 record. I know it’s only been a few days but the conclusion I come to is that Drake kept the team from slumping as a whole (and Kim is a disaster so far).
Ozzie had three hits and Austin two and the Braves still didn’t score until the 9th and then failed to rally with one out. I watched Acuna and Riley strikeout at least 7 times in two days. That’s unbelievable when just putting the ball in play might’ve scored a run or two.
Maybe it’s being home and tired. I dunno. The two highest scoring teams in MLB put up 5 runs in two days and 4 of those were by the gNats. The gNats pitching just isn’t that good. However, the gNats do play better on the road.
The Braves offense was bad this weekend. And yes, they miss Baldwin. My unsolicted advice is, don’t let the small sample of the past weekend get to you. For the season, they are still second in MLB in runs/game. Last season at this point they were scoring a full run per game less than this season.
Not playing on Memorial Day is weird.
Yes, but it’s pretty clear the team needed a day off.
Yeah, it ended up being perfect timing for a day off. They definitely need it.
I imagine the Braves did benefit from the off day–I know for sure that I did. Coming down to the last at bat in 3 low scoring games (succeeding once and failing twice) took a toll on me. But I’m refreshed, renewed, and ready for tonight in Boston.
Bob Horner, 68, R.I.P.
Tough year for ex-Braves
Horner’s big day, 7/6/86:
When I was 17 my parents took my brother and me down to Atlanta. I was a pretty good outfielder in high school so when we got there early for batting practice we decided we’d go down to the left field seats and catch a few home runs. That lasted until Bob Horner started ricocheting line drives off the seats. Then we got the hell out of there pretty fast.
I’ll be writing some about Horner in tonight’s recap. I’ll appreciate any reminiscences about him y’all could share.
Bob Horner owns the distinction of being the player who received the loudest boos in the annual major-league-Braves-vs.-AAA-Braves exhibition that took place in Richmond in the 1970s and 1980s.
Of course, he skipped the minor leagues entirely on his way up, going directly from Arizona State to the big club in 1978. However, he started the 1980 season in a funk and was optioned to Richmond. This didn’t sit well with the big guy; he refused to report to Richmond and enlisted the aid of Marvin Miller in claiming that his demotion was a contract violation. He won out and was soon back on the major-league roster; in the end, he would never play a minor-league game in his career. And after returning to the A-Braves, he hit 35 homers in the final five months of the season. But he still had to go to Richmond — for the exhibition game, three weeks after he refused to report. He was booed in every plate appearance by the overflow crowd at Parker Field, a throng that took his professional stance personally … and he finished the night with three hits.
Bob had that “f*** you” edge to him. That’s certainly part of why he stepped in against Champ Summers during the 1984 brawl vs. the Padres, even when he was on the disabled list. As a player, he couldn’t ever turn that jagged edge off.
That play at first Strider had to make was waaaaay closer than I thought it was.
I’m ready for this team to stop trying to make Ha-Seong Kim happen.
Hey everybody. How’s our offense looking? Still dormant?
EDIT: Well I’ll be damned–I’m good luck
The Braves lost games in 2024 and 2025 because of the offensive black hole at SS. They now appear to have blown $20 million on Kim plus the money paid to him last year. Should have just paid Dansby.
I’m hoping his grip strength tanked due to his injury and he can build that back up over the next several weeks, because he looks physically overmatched at the plate. Otherwise, he’s worse than Arcia as things stand.
Praise be to Dom Smith, for saving us from the damage inflicted by Ha-Seong Kim: The Rally Killer.
And don’t forget Mauricio Dubon & all his big hits this year.
I love how Olson drops head after he crushes a no-doubter… It’s not the playoffs, so apparently we’re allowed to beat Ranger Suarez now.
Bob Horner?
Yeah, the 4-HR game was something memorable & very indicative of the times — we lost that game to Montreal 11-8. I remember listening to the radio as I was driving from Athens to Columbus that day. Those were the days when the Braves took some beatings, but you’d usually try to catch all of Horner & Murphy’s ABs.
And, yes, the other strong memories are his refusal to go to the minors when he & the Braves got off to a bad start in ’80 and Horner sticking up for his teammates by standing up to Champ Summers in that insane brawl vs. the Padres in ‘84.
My personal memory was a weekend I spent in ATL with a friend & his mom who drove us up from Columbus. She wanted to go shopping for a couple days, so she’d drop us off where we’d do some ATL things that were appropriate for 14-year olds.
So, we did three very 1978 things:
-Went to the cinema in the Omni International & saw “Saturday Night Fever.” (A portent of things to come, professionally speaking.)
-Went next door to The Omni & saw Ted Nugent & Black Oak Arkansas. (My ears rang for a week… thanks, Jim Dandy.) Afterward, we met my buddy’s mom at Burt’s Place. (Some folks’ll remember that joint.)
-Went to AFC Stadium and saw the Braves/Padres. (Attendance: 9,605)
For the ballgame, we were psyched to see that future HoFer Gaylord Perry was pitching for San Diego, in what would end up being his 2nd Cy Young year – he was the first guy to do it in both leagues.
But, as always seemed to be the case when I’d see a legend take the mound vs. the Braves (Gibson, Carlton, Ryan, etc.), Gaylord got bombed and we got to see ’78 Rookie of the Year Bob Horner scorch one over the left-field fence (“Hey, this guy’s gonna be pretty good”) – the capper to a great weekend.
Another time in ’82, drove up on July 4 to see the Braves play the Reds — Horner hit 2 HRs & the Braves won 4-1. Another perfect day. RIP, Bob.
Welp, Iggy was due for this. That 0.00 ERA wasn’t going to last forever. A seeing-eye 2-RBI single here, a pitch high in the zone there. So it goes. Good thing there was the 3-run buffer.
Not the prettiest game or the prettiest win, but we beat Ranger Suarez, and the bats came to life and Mike had a monster game.
Love seeing them pick up Spencer Strider and the pen – Lee and Iggy were due for a smidge of regression, nice that we got a win out of it anyway!
Recapped