Hot Takes
In 2021 I had a little fun with long-time commenter Mark Graybill, who in a fit of pique said he was done with the Braves. He came back.
Continuing the pattern, and in attempt to replicate 2021’s outcome, I have selected a few comments from Our New Insect Overlords. I accept that many, if not most of them, were arguably accurate at the time they were made. Please don’t take these the wrong way, ONIO… it takes optimists and pessimists to make a community:
- 3/24: AA and McGuirk’s baseball management of this organization is in “Bold strategy, Cotton” territory. Malpractice. They ought to be hung, drawn and quartered, metaphorically speaking.
- 6/26: Wouldn’t be a surprise if this is a second-place team by the ASG.
- 6/30: This is just an atrocious team right now.
- 7/2: This is a piss-poor team right now. I’m not particularly interested in AA blowing up its future lineup — especially when the cheap powers that be will ensure it has to have young players to make up for the anvil of contracts like Strider’s and Riley’s — for what is going to be a quick wild-card exit at best.
- 8/3: Assuming the team makes the playoffs, it’s dead in the wild-card round. Good job, good effort, AA. Still cruising off the 2021 deadline deals.
- 8/22: Phillies winning again. This might be done by Labor Day.
The Game
Busy… didn’t watch. Ronald made a great catch… watch it wherever things worth watching are available…. or here.
As I write this (9:20 10:53 11:0457 PM) Phillies are losing lost 12-1 and Diamondbacks are tied with losing by four six lost by 3 to the Padres. I will update a little later, but I want the Phillies to blow through their pitchers but win. Other than schadenfreude, it doesn’t do the Braves any good to run through all their pitchers and lose. [Note: it looks better now. Padres will be playing a meaningless (to them) game tomorrow against the D’backs and Mike Soroka, but the Phillies are still in if Zack Wheeler comes through.]
I’m certainly more on the optimist (or maybe “be happy with what we’ve got”) side, but the 2nd, 3rd, & 4th of ONIO’s comments, from 6/26, 6/30, and 7/2, should be looked at alongside the team’s monthly winning percentages:
March/April – .687 or 111-win pace
May – .643/104
June – .391/63
July – .593/96
Aug – .607/98
Sept. – .522/85
Yeah… June sucked. Which is why I said “arguably accurate at the time they were made.” If you want to scratch the “arguably,” fair enough. And “quick wild-card exit at best” is still a possibility. But like I said… it takes all kinds.
Those Phils are cutting it close, aren’t they?
A scenario: Arizona loses tomorrow to SD & the Phillies get rained out. Then we’ll see Wheeler in Game 1 on Tuesday on a week’s rest.
Go D-Backs.
Phillies game moved up to 2:30. If they get started, they’ll still have to start Wheeler.
Based on run differential and pythagorean record, the Phillies aren’t even the best team in Pennsylvania.
Diamondbacks turn to former Brave Mike (now Michael, I guess) Soroka to win a big final game. And Phillies turning to Georgia-native Zach Wheeler to avoid an utter collapse that might leave a mark for a little while. Way too much talent on that Philly team, IMO, for this to happen.
Austin Riley becomes first Brave with 200+ strikeouts in a season. Haircut time, if you ask me. Change socks, change churches, change SOMETHING! Come on Riley, we gonna need you in the post-season, man.
The fact that Henry Aaron never struck out 100 times in a season is another of the astonishing attributes of the Greatest Braves Player. Sure, it was a different game back then, but his slugging contemporaries Mays, Stargell, Clemente, Killebrew, Mantle and McCovey all did. (Mays only once, to be fair)
Teams with losing records should be excluded from the playoffs. Those slots are just left empty and their opponent effectively gets a bye.
Without looking at the numbers, it seems to me like there have been more 100+ win teams than usual in the last decade or so, and more really bad teams as well. Part of the reason might be an increasing gap between big-spending teams and cheap ones, with most of the big-spending teams being in big markets – because a marginal win is worth more to them – but the Brewers & Rays having the best records in their leagues suggests that that’s not the whole story. A small part of it may be the increasing number of players used in a season, as I bet the Rays & Dodgers and other well-run teams can find better pitchers for the far back ends of their staff than most teams. The Braves have used 36 pitchers this year, and numbers 20 thru 36 in terms of IP (at least one of whom was a position player, so let’s deduct a little) accounted for 130.2 innings, which seems like a lot.
Yesterday night after the game, had a bite to eat at the hotel bar I am staying at in Miami. Guy sitting next to me wearing a Marlins polo shirt, we start talking and turns out he is the dad of one of the Marlins players. They are from Alpharetta! Had a great converstation over a couple beers, he told me all about the call he received from his son, when he made it to the Show. Showed me the video of his first ever hit, a 2-run HR, back when he was with the Padres who had drafted him. Great guy. His son is in the lineup today. It’s okay if he has a few hits against the Braves today. His dad is a great guy.
Great story, Timo.
A pair of 2 run doubles early have the Phillies up 4-0. Wheeler is pitching and presumably won’t start Game 1 if the Phillies win.
If Game 1 is Sale against Luzardo it will be interesting. I’m reasonably certain they won’t have Luzardo go 9 innings.
I think it will probably be Painter for Game 1 and Sánchez for Game 2.
Man, the Wild Card series still scares me. Sure, it’s better than “1 game can ruin your entire season.” But if you’re a division winner, 3rd best team in the league, and you won 94-95 games, should 2 games ruin your season? Is that much of an improvement?
Our WC Games 1 & 2 scheduled at 2 pm Eastern Time.
I’m astonished. I never would have expected Yankees-Red Sox to get prime time.
I figured we’d get the 2nd game, not the first.
Once SD clinched their home game, you knew the Pads would be the 4th game.
The second game usually has big sun issues. I’ll take 2 pm
I see no universe or alternate universe where Philadelphia deserves another chance against Atlanta. We have a better record by 6 games after 162 games, we’ve won the season series 9 to 4. Philly has laid an egg down the stretch. We are a better team than Philadelphia by every standard. Let’s beat those guys! I want us to go all the way, but beating Philly is a must!
Expanded playoffs almost always reward mediocrity.
Luzardo is on in relief. It has to be Painter in Game 1.
Ritchie and AJSS look great at times but I don’t know if I would put either on the playoff roster. They are too prone to be long ball. They can appear dominant but home runs will kill you
Ritchie is certainly not going to be rostered for this series but I can see AJSS because the ghost runner goes away in the playoffs and we just might need a long man.
Kim drew two walks today to finish the year with more walks than hits in over 100 PA (almost 150). Unfortunately, he had 16 walks and 15 hits, rather than 40 and 35 or something. This isn’t unprecedented – Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, Gene Tenace, and Eddie Stanky each did it several times – but it’s not too common either. Kim is the first Brave with over 100 PA to do it since before 2020, which was as far back as I checked. That seems like it ought to be close to a record for fewest walks by a player with more walks than hits in at least 100 PA, as not too many players are given 100+ PA when they’re batting below .150.
Fewest walks by a nonpitcher (there are literally hundreds of pitchers who would otherwise fit) with more walks than hits and at least 100 PA is Jonathan Davis (2021) 12 walks and 11 hits in 103 PA. For the Braves, Bruce Benedict had 17 walks and 14 hits in 114 PA in 1987, so Kim will pass him when the results are updated tomorrow. https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/MvW0r
Ted Williams did it one year, too (1954).
His batting page on Baseball Reference leaves me vertiginous. He had WARs of 10.4 at both ages 22 and 23, and 10.6 at age 27 and 9.5 at age 28. Ages 24, 25, and 26? Serving in WWII. I mean, he came back from three years away and did not miss a beat. Interpolate 30 WAR there, and another dozen for his Korean War service, and were it not for one Babe Ruth, you’d have what Williams always thought he was: The best hitter, ever. (Barry Bonds, we hardly knew ye.)
Looks like Phillies have decided to start Luzardo in game one tomorrow. Reports are he’ll be an opener followed by Painter. It’s really hard to anticipate how effective he’ll be or how many innings he can go. Luzardo appeared yesterday but only threw four pitches.
After finishing action on May 29th Dom Smith had slashed .336/.362/.513 in 128 plate appearances. Thereafter he posted a .187/.273/.280 slash line in 172 plate appearances
I mentioned early in the season that he reminded me a bit of Dwight Smith, a left handed bat who was seen as a secret weapon for the 1995 Braves and who hit a walk off grand slam. After Dwight Smith’s 5/19 walk off grand slam, he had a .368/.415/.684 line, and he went .204/.292/.301 thereafter. I didn’t expect Dom to rank worse than Dwight.
Pablo Sandoval had similar numbers (in many fewer PAs because he was almost strictly a PH, but he had some very big PHs) partway through May of 2021 and even worse ones afterwards.