Last night, I am told, was Tuesday night, and so it was my turn to recap. I forgot, but unlike many of my recent successes, my failure to watch the game did not result in our opponents’ failure to win.
Spencer Strider came back, had a first inning from hell, and then sort of did okay, though he gave up three runs in the first on four hits and a wild pitch, and over the next four innings he gave up two more hits including a solo homer, as well as one walk and two hit batsmen. He was off. But he’s healthy, which is apparently more than can be said for the Nationals’ rookie center fielder, Dylan Crews, who had the homer but now has an injured oblique.
We’re doomed, Christmas is cancelled, puppies are going extinct and apple pie is illegal, and all that, but I’m comfortable flushing the memory of this one game because the guy didn’t have his timing. Let’s just beat ’em today, please?
How was Strider’s velo?
Looks like mostly 93-95, touching 97.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=5/20/2025&gamePk=777841&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=pitchVelocity&sportId=1&liveAb=#777841
Velocity might be a function of conditioning. Maybe he’ll tick up as he gets more regular usage out of the arm.
Even though it wasn’t great last night, the starting pitching is not the problem. For Strider what matters is Sept/Oct not May. The bullpen is a mess. I’d sure like to see Kimbrel replace Montero (and his glove). If Acuna comes back even as mediocre as he was in 2022 (but still better than Verdugo) then our offense should be OK again. If we can get 4 runs every day, we’ll win a lot of games.
Agreed, starting pitching is not the problem. I have my doubts about whether Strider will be an ace long-term, but he doesn’t have to be on this staff. And neither does Schwellenbach. I think the expectations for these 2 have been unnecessarily through the roof. Staying healthy is a skill, and Strider has demonstrated that that’s a legitimate question mark, and Schwelly hasn’t proven he can stay healthy for multiple seasons.
Strider’s slider wasn’t moving much early, but it looked better as the game progressed. I would have probably given him a rehab start, but it’s the Nationals, so close enough I guess.
Gaurav is a great follow for Braves’ prospects. He reported Waldrep altered his leg kick, and while it’s a SSS, the results have been much better.
https://x.com/gvedak/status/1925227646314549372
https://x.com/gvedak/status/1925239200820973605
Comparison of the mechanics.
That’s really exciting. I know some have soured on Waldrep, but he’s really talented.
Speaking of prospects, do we think Smith-Shawver has turned the corner? The FIP is a run higher, but he’s getting incredible results.
The walk rate’s not great, but I like that he’s gone deep in more games. I think it still remains to be seen whether he truly has enough pitches to start, but he’s clearly athletic and he’s definitely getting better results than before, so I’m upgrading myself to cautiously optimistic and I’d like to keep giving him regular starts for the next couple of months, and give him enough rope to let him shake off an occasional rough outing like what Strider had last night, or like what Shabbos had a couple of weeks ago.
I still remember one day after Touki Toussaint had an amazing start when I was convinced he’d stick in the majors, and I was clearly wrong. So I’ve gotten much more cautious generally.
With respect to Waldrep, I would love to see him succeed. I think the odds of him succeeding as a starter feel pretty low, but the odds of him turning into an ace reliever still feel quite good. That mechanical change definitely makes it look like he’s keeping his balance better, which hopefully will lead to better repeatability and better command. His walk rate since getting drafted has been absolutely awful and as we saw from his catastrophic Major League debut, if he can’t land his pitches for strikes, he can’t get hitters to chase at his splinker, and he ultimately cannot succeed. I’m definitely rooting for him, but I think we’re going to need to just wait and let him establish a pretty good track record of success. Even though we have clear bullpen needs, I want for us to be able to give him a lot more time.
There were two very unusual plays in last night’s game. Strider turned the very rare POCS2(1), a play in which the runner on second breaks for third and is run down by the pitcher who tags him out unassisted. Rare, but not unheard of… there have been a few dozen of these in the Retrosheet database. (The uncertainty comes from the scoring decision of whther to call it a caught stealing and a pickoff or just a pickoff.)
The other play is, as near as I can find, unique in MLB history, though there are two plays that are close. Strider attempted to pickoff CJ Abrams, made a bad toss to first, Abrams took off for second and then third base, Olson threw to Riley to attempt to get him at third, nearly overthrew him, and Abrams, thinking that he had over overthrown him, started for home and was thrown out 525. So I would score this OA.1XH(E1/TH)(3525) [note:I’ve changed my mind about this a few times] which is indeed unique in the Retrosheet database. There were two plays that were close to it, though… in both cases there were men on first and third, and the pickoff attempt at first led to the runner on third tryng for home and being thrown out 13525. Those games were in 1931 and 2024. Again I have some uncertainty about this, because I’m not exactly sure how the play was scored.
I was watching the game on tv and after that Abrams play, I told my grandson “I don’t think I’ve ever seen a play like that.” I guess sometimes I’m right without knowing it for sure. (More often I’m wrong when I’m sure I’m right)
I see plays all the time that I think are close to unique only to discover there are hundreds of similar plays in the 11 million plays in the Retrosheet database. I’m almost always wrong.
Game Postponed to be made up on September 16th.
Today is the birthday of Bobby Cox. This Saturday 5/24 is the birthday of Bob Dylan. What I had not realized until today is that they were both born the same year, 1941. So they both turn 84 this week. This afternoon I was trying to think of a way to tie Cox and Dylan together in tonight’s recap. Thanks to the rainout, I am spared that effort and y’all are spared the contrived Baby Boomer kind of thing that probably wouldn’t have worked anyway.
If I get a vote, I’d vote in favor of you making a stab anyway. Look, there isn’t much to read around here lately. The team is kind of boring right now, what with hibernation mode rearing its head, and most of the conversation has been about stuff AA shouldn’t have done 3 years ago.
Agree generally, stampton. Actually, though, I know that playing with arbitrary endpoints is sort of a mug’s game, but I’m starting to come around to the idea that other than the horrific first week, this team is actually pretty good. It would be nice to see our boys narrow the gap in the division now that Philly’s closer is facing the same PED sentence as our erstwhile left fielder, but I’m less DOOOOM-brained than I was a couple weeks into the season.
I will wait to say if this team is good until I see what they do with the Padres and Phillies in back-to-back series. If they end that stretch, say, four games back in the division (and maybe a couple in the WC), then I would (or I will) say they are pretty good. If they end up 10 games back in the division, I’ll have to lean in seriously to some of my other hobbies for the rest of the summer.
The beginning of the schedule was incredibly hard, but May has been pretty easy so far. I’m really interested to see how June goes. We play 26 games, six are against the Marlins and Rockies, but the rest should be really competitive.
I said this 3-4 weeks ago that the Braves were moving into a more manageable portion of the schedule. I’ll admit I thought they we were pretty cooked in April, but they’ve really taken advantage of an easier schedule.
Frankly, of all the disappointments this year, I’m much more grateful to be in the position we’re in than the nightmare in Baltimore, which could get the GM fired, or the trainwreck in Boston. We righted the ship and stopped taking on water, and we’ll get Ronald back in a few days. I’m willing to start allowing myself a little strategic optimism.
If you believe my O’s fan friends, they want Elias fired immediately because he, kinda like AA, was given free reign to upgrade the pitching staff and just didn’t do it. As frustrated as Braves fans can justifiably get with how AA handled the offseason, we still at least have a really good roster. The O’s pitching staff suuuuucks. Sugano is good, but he’s 35. Their big offseason pickup was Charlie Morton. Just awful. Losing Grayson Rodriguez is probably the only element that was completely out of Elias’ control.
I don’t believe that he was given free rein; a lot of the baseball writers I follow place the blame squarely on the new owner, who could have authorized a much higher payroll.
I’m curious about your O’s friends – what gives them the thought that he had free rein?
I can’t even spell free rein, so I’m probably wrong. And so are the O’s fans I talk to.
Matty O and El Oso Grande! Both of those balls were smoked on a line. That’s what we’ve been needing more than anything.
And AJSS does not have it tonight.
Everything’s up in the zone tonight from A.J. Is Drake not giving him the right spot to target?
With two strikes. Trying to set a record for most two strike hits given up in one game.
AJSS is getting BABIP’ed. And can’t put anyone away with 2 strikes.
In the first, I saw AJ hitting 98 and 99 with his four seamer, and I thought to myself, this kid keeps getting better right before our eyes. Then he starts hanging splitters up in the zone, especially on 0-2 counts. Even the Nats are going to crush that. But I still like his stuff; like almost all young pitchers, he needs to be more consistent with his command. Unlike, say, Sean Newcomb, I have a lot of confidence that AJ can do that.
Of course I could be wrong. Like AAR, I remember that one great start by Touki a few years ago and I convinced myself that he had figured it out. Touki and Newk are great examples of how excellent stuff doesn’t get the job done without good command.
I perk up whenever announcers call “Nerd Alert.” The discussion of White and the chainlink fence immediately made me think of Brian Asselstine: https://sportswriterrob.com/2020/03/04/brian-asselstine-what-could-have-been/
Aaron Bummer playing the role of gas on a fire…as usual.
Yes, the chainlink fence brought Asselstine immediately to my mind as well. Not only that, my wife, who really did not follow the Braves much at all back then, perked up. She did not remember Asselstine’s name, but she vividly remembered how ghastly the injury was.
Same crap from Bummer, different day. But he’s just “unlucky.”
We are the unlucky ones…having to endure his constant failure. Going to need to rename the Grybo to the Bummer.
I promise I didn’t see your comment before I said the same thing lol
Bummer is the new Gryboski.
I’m at the ol’ ballyard. (So few Nats fans came out, it’s practically a home game.) I’ll give our guys credit for putting together some great at-bats in the fourth and knocking the pitcher out of the game by working counts.
AJ wasn’t missing any bats. He needs another secondary pitch.
So, I’m in a bar and on the ESPN crawl I see “Sean Murphy Bunting out for the season” and I’m like WHY WAS HE BUNTING?
Regardless on the call here, I guess I don’t want them making the second out at home. I learned that when I was eight.
Tui is just awful at this. As bad as Snitker was when he was over there. Fire this entire staff into the sun.
Also, Money Mike!!
Harris sure saved the bottom of the 9th.
Let’s win this thing.
White and Verdugo are semi turning into pumpkins. RAJ can’t come back fast enough to mitigate the amount of AAAA players we have in the lineup.
We’ve really met our match in these Washington Nationals
There has been much weeping and gnashing of teeth about Tui sending Riley home in the 9th. And yes, I know Riley is slow and Ozuna was up next. But that is by far the closest you’re going to be to having a lead in that moment, and it took a perfect throw to get Riley. If you’re barely out on a perfect throw in a close and late situation, that’s the right send all day.
And more importantly, do fans not get tired of just having the same “arm chair quarterback” reactionary evaluation to everything? If it worked, it was a genius. If it didn’t, it was stupid. Are people just so stupid that they don’t eventually pick up on this pattern that that’s their entire thought process?
I don’t complain too much about sending runners unless it’s egregious. Wash got quite a few thrown out. Scoring a runner from third, even with nobody out is far from automatic, especially for this squad. If you never get a runner thrown out at the plate, you’re not sending enough runners.
Completely agree, Stampton.
From the bleachers last night, I didn’t mind the send. Needed a perfect play, and they turned it well. In extras on the road you’re behind the 8-ball anyway, so I think going for it in that situation was defensible.
Michael Harris’s two catches were absolutely unbelievable. He’s really something out there.
Sending Riley was a bad call. It’s more likely Ozuna hits a sac fly than Riley scoring from first.
If you’re playing the Dodgers, and you know you have to face a great bullpen, then maybe take that risk.
Riley was out by what, a foot? He had at least a 50 – 50 chance of scoring, maybe more since it took two perfect throws to get him. No hitter in history has been successful 50% of the time. The point is probably moot since there would have been two chances to drive him in, but I don’t think it was more likely Ozuna gets it done by himself.
Someone on here said a few days ago that this year’s team reminds them of the 2021 Braves. I just looked it up and they were, indeed, one game under .500 on May 23 (24-25), just as this year’s team starts the day at 23-24. But they were only two games back in the division versus 7.5 this morning. In the intervening years, Philly and NY got better and we got stood pat at best or, arguably, got worse. Would anyone be surprised if they were 10.5 games back a week from now?
So, who gets traded in a couple of months when it becomes clear that the division is long lost and they have too many teams to jump in the WC race? And what do they get back?
Not gonna happen IMO. We are too good to get blown out of the wildcard race in the next 2 months, and that’s what would have to happen. And we’re expecting Strider and Acuna both hitting their stride by July? But OK, I will entertain the hypothetical:
AA is gonna be very reluctant to trade anyone who signed a sweetheart extension, so let’s take them off the table. The exception may be Sean Murphy who wasn’t one of the homegrowns, but I still prefer to keep him and let him platoon with Baldwin at C/DH.
Ozuna is the obvious trade candidate because he is as good as gone. What we get back will probably be two B prospects. Nobody sells the farm for a half season of an aging DH. They’re not JS.
Next is Chris Sale. I also prefer to keep him and run it back in 2026, but he is the next best trade candidate. The package for him could be enticing because he’s an ace. I would require a top-100 talent for sure, possibly 2.
Finally there are relief pitchers. First is Raisel Iglesias. He would have to rebound pretty hard to have any value, but he’s also as good as gone. Johnson is more likely to be dealt. Again we’re looking at two B prospects for a strong reliever on an ending contract.
EDIT: we have a team option on Johnson, so I do not think we would move him given our bullpen needs.
Yeah, that list of trade candidates and underwhelming returns is about what I would have said, as well. I hope you’re right about not getting blown out of the WC. But here’s another question: of the seven (!) teams in front of us in the race for the first first WC, which are most likely to drop significantly in the next two months? Every one of them except Milwaukee (-4) and Arizona (+4) is smoking us in terms of run differential. Similarly, all except those two have better team ERAs than we do.
But I guess your point that we will stay within shouting distance of the last WC slot in terms of games back is probably correct. But, my god, what an uninspiring team is . . .
I spend too much time working these days to follow other teams like I once did, so I don’t have an opinion on who we can catch. As far as run differential goes, I wouldn’t worry about it because we have given a lot of starts to mediocre pitchers and a lot of AB to replacement type guys. I can tell you from watching thousands of baseball games that my opinion is this looks like a .500 team, and that was my opinion before the season, after we started 0-7 and now. Strider and Acuna performing at a high level make a .500 team into a wild card team pretty easily, but they are still unknowns. And just variance–.500 teams get lucky and win 86 games all the time. I will give up hope when we are 6-8 games out of the final WC at the end of August.
Bye bye Orlando…DFA’d for Ronnie
Acuña officially activated, corresponding move of…Arcia DFA. Wow. Not too surprising at this point I guess, but still. Who’s the backup SS now?
Eli White I would guess? Doesn’t Luke Williams play infield too?
Luke Williams
Luke Williams kept ahead of Arcia.
Speed, I guess. But that’s a .568 career OPS and a guy who hasn’t seen a .200 average since 2022, a player who’s shown no sign of being, well, anything. He doesn’t even have a .700 OPS in the minor leagues. Whereas Arcia at least had the half-season burst that led to being an All-Star at one point.