Jim Mora notwithstanding, we’re there. When I asked you guys back in March to make a win prediction for the season, you guys (at least those of you who took a stand) showed by Braves Journal readers are smarter than, say, ESPN who had the Braves at 90 wins. They were only four off, by the way.
jjschiller – 92 wins, Olson returns to the land 40 homers. (41 is in that land)
tfloyd and me: 162 wins. I’m going to toss these two out because we work here.
Stampton: We are going to win 93 games and peak at the right time, having a healthy rotation in October for the first time in decades. (Too pessimistic! you missed that other win. There are a few other predictions that didn’t hold up quite that well, but a Braves-Red Sox World Series is still a live possibility)
sdp: 83-79. (Sending you a copy of Tug McGraw’s autobiography)
Nathan: 95+ (I’m going to choose to interpret that ‘+’ as a typographical combination of ‘-‘ and ‘1’. Exactly right, Nathan!)
snowshinedog: 92 wins, Sale with 17 wins and 205 strikeouts (14-200) (other division predictions suppressed)
Nice work everybody… and sdp: you get a pass, as long as you’re sure we’ll beat the Phillies.
Note above that that this playoff series has a sponsor: Abbvie. Abbvie’s biggest seller is Humira, so if the playoffs give you ulcerative colitis, I hope you’ll blame it on them.
Playoffs start tomorrow at 2:15. Watch party right here. I’ll be drinking Willett Rye as long as I am able.
Sorry! I JC’d tfloyd:
Looks like Phillies have decided to start Luzardo in game one tomorrow. Reports are he’ll be an opener followed by Painter. It’s really hard to anticipate how effective he’ll be or how many innings he can go. Luzardo appeared yesterday but only threw four pitches.
[Note that I (JF) predicted Luzardo would start yesterday. It took a day for the Phillies to see the wisdom of my position.]
Sorry! I JC’d tfloyd:
Looks like Phillies have decided to start Luzardo in game one tomorrow. Reports are he’ll be an opener followed by Painter. It’s really hard to anticipate how effective he’ll be or how many innings he can go. Luzardo appeared yesterday but only threw four pitches.
[Note that I (JF) predicted Luzardo would start yesterday. It took a day for the Phillies to see the wisdom of my position.]
I JC’d Stampton as well:
After finishing action on May 29th Dom Smith had slashed .336/.362/.513 in 128 plate appearances. Thereafter he posted a .187/.273/.280 slash line in 172 plate appearances
I mentioned early in the season that he reminded me a bit of Dwight Smith, a left handed bat who was seen as a secret weapon for the 1995 Braves and who hit a walk off grand slam. After Dwight Smith’s 5/19 walk off grand slam, he had a .368/.415/.684 line, and he went .204/.292/.301 thereafter. I didn’t expect Dom to rank worse than Dwight.
[Add in Pablo Sandoval and you have the Trifecta]
Yes, but Dwight Smith had a nice singing voice.
Dwight’s pimp walk on that home run has made me watch that highlight no less than a hundred times. I had no idea he turned into a pumpkin thereafter. Thanks Stampton.
Braves are still marshmellows against LH SP. As long as Luzardo stays, the Braves won’t score……
Chris Sale vs. Phillies in 2026
4 GS, 3-0, 26 IP, 14 H, 6 BB, 6 ER, 29 K, 2.08 ERA
Raisel Iglesias vs. Phillies in 2025-26
12 G, 5 Sv, 12 IP, 2 ER, 1 HR, 16 K, 7 H, 2 BB, 1.50 ERA
Kyle Schwarber Career vs. Chris Sale
5/25 (.200), 1 3B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 10 K
Kyle Schwarber Career vs. Raisel Iglesias
4/18 (.222), 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 HBP, 1 BB, 8 K
Bryce Harper Career vs. Chris Sale
2/21 (.095), 11 K, 2 singles
Bryce Harper Career vs. Raisel Iglesias
6/12 (.500), 4 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
His HRs were in ’18 (2), ’22 & ’23 – only the last one was vs. ATL
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/09/luis-arraez-will-not-be-on-phillies-wild-card-roster.html
I’ll be at today’s game. I scored tickets at a decent price when they announced this as an afternoon start; one of many advantages to retirement–and to living near the park.
I don’t make predictions, but I am oddly hopeful about this series, and this postseason overall. No obvious reason for that. There have been so many first round washouts and other inexplicable losses to inferior teams in Atlanta Braves history that a Braves fan can almost dread the playoffs. And the 2026 Braves have some obvious weaknesses, despite the 94 wins (e.g., at least half the lineup struggling, questions in the rotation).
But this team has been oddly appealing from the start, through many twists and turns. Playoffs are a time for unexpected heroes to come through, so perhaps we will witness redemption from the likes of Riley, Murphy, or Kim. Of course we also need the most obvious stars to shine as well, starting with Chris Sale today.
I suppose hope is not a strategy for a team, but as a fan it’s essential to my enjoyment of the game. Go Braves!
PS–I also have the honor of recapping today’s game. I’ll post something once I successfully battle rush hour traffic and arrive safely home.
Make sure to submit an expense report for the tickets and any needed refreshments. Braves Journal routinely covers expenses for live recaps, although IRS laws and sanity require us to cap reimbursements at 10x salary…. wouldn’t want to see expense account abuse.
Documentation? Clearly you don’t trust me. You should take my word for what I spend.
You picked the Riley redemption! Now its time for Kim and Murphy to shine later this post-season.
Vegas has us -196 today. That’s… high. They like the pitching matchup for us, clearly.
No prediction here. But, GO BRAVES!
Would love to get game 1 and put the pressure on the Phillies. They have not navigated pressure very well the last few weeks.
Man, we really have to win today. Sale vs whatever Luzardo has followed by their 5th starter. Can’t waste that. Not to mention you obviously don’t want to face Sanchez in an elimination game. Come on Braves!
I know I’m in the minority, but I just don’t care for postseason baseball all that much, especially not in the expanded playoff era. I mean I’m still gonna root for the Braves, obviously, but the overall playoff format is…eh.
The regular season is great because it provides a large sample. You can kind of separate the signal from the noise and, looking at not only W-L record but also things like run differential, BaseRuns records, and team xwOBA, determine which teams played the best. Once you get to the postseason, though, that idea is thrown out and the chaos and variance of the tournament take over.
That being said, I’m not thrilled about the roster for this series. Carrying 15 position players and only 11 pitchers is odd. And the personnel decisions seem strange, too — having both Smith and Tellez seems redundant, Luke Williams doesn’t bring much value, etc. And I would’ve preferred to have AJSS airing it out for 1-2 innings at a time instead of Mederos.
Completely agree on the regular season versus the playoffs, but we live in this universe, not our preferred one.
The one thing you don’t need in the playoffs is pitching depth… particularly not in a 2-out-of-3. Is Tellez of little value? Yes, but probably of more value than Ritchie (who just pitched, of course) or even AJSS. Frankly, the one problem with Tellez is that you’ll be tempted to use him instead of rolling the dice with a bad matchup. One more note… the Manfred Man is gone, so there’s definitely a chance that you need more pinch hitters if you end up losing the DH as Weiss has done numerous times… and you can’t plan on a Mederos hit every game.
They need Williams not for his speed but because he and Hicklen are the only righties (unless Kim is not playing but still). Against Luzardo, they are going to need SOMETHING. I also think AJSS and JRR are too HR prone. This game might be decided by a solo HR.
The Braves will not score against Luzardo. It does not matter how well Sale pitches….. I hope I’m wrong but the Braves beat Sanchez and could not beat Luzardo. I would also worry about Nola.
Oh, also no third catcher without Farmer or other.
I also prefer the regular season to the postseason for the reasons you state. Also, as a fan of a team that has won the division 19 of the last 32 years, but with only two WS titles, I might be a little biased.
Having said that, I would love for our guys to win it all this year, not least to silence those critics who insist this franchise is not truly successful because of the playoff failures.
And Roger, I’ve reluctantly had to admit this season that you’ve been right more than you’re wrong about the Braves offense. But I’ll be delighted if they prove you wrong, especially against Luzardo and other southpaws they may face.
Luzardo and his speed changing seems to give us fits. We seem to swing early in the count and make a lot of weak contact. I don’t love the matchup with him but I think his leash might be short.
I dig both regular & post-season, but the post-season games are 1,000% more fun to attend.
Just a completely different kind of energy, especially when you’re among 40,000+ people turned into a bundle of nerves.
As of 2 minutes before game time, it looks (on tv) more like 30-35,000 people. Lots of empty seats. Hope it fills up soon.
It’s filling up. And ububba is right—the energy is terrific.
I’m a cool cucumber during the season and can weather the bumpiest of slumps. The playoffs give me endless anxiety.
Rooting for a win. But honestly anything but the Foltynewicz game will do.
Glad to see Joey Votto on the broadcast. He’s a gem.
I never expect anything good; I particularly have no expectations of anything good when it’s Braves-Phillies in the postseason. So it goes.
Typical Atlanta Brave playoff baseball right off the jump. Walk followed by a two out hit that we aren’t capable of getting ourselves.
I really hate that Alec Bohm which is why there was no doubt what he would do with 2 strikes and 2 outs
10 pitches…smh. We refuse to hit Luzardo
And there is your typical Braves playoff moment. Ball off the bottom of the bat, Dubon running on contact. The postseason doesn’t need to be in October to get October Braves things.
I stand corrected. Yaz with the big 2 out hit
Yaz!
The best thing you could do, Mr. Kim, is NOT SWING.
Yaz with an RBI hit off Luzardo is probably the last thing I would’ve predicted for game 1
I know we waited all season for Kim to turn it around. But that time has passed, no?
Making Luzardo look like Koufax.
In his last 7 starts of the season, Luzardo actually had better-than-Koufax numbers.
I’d be in favor of Andrew Painter ASAP.
Wasted one challenge, now afraid to make an obvious challenge.
Ozhaino!!!
Let’s smash that bullpen.
Buh-bye, Mr. Luzardo…
Ozzzie!
Let’s get some more.
Didn’t even get to face Painter, SMH.
I’ll take that though! Man, we just really love bullpens don’t we?
Sale at 84 pitches… so, unless he has a ridiculously brief inning, he probably empties the tank here.
I try not to judge swing/take decisions too harshly bc I know it looks vastly different in the batters box, but ugh, Riley hacking on a 2-0 pitch that landed in front of the plate is rough. Really would’ve been nice to score Ozzie. There’s your lead, Chris!
Unfortunately Riley is one of the last hitters we want to see up with a runner on third, and he’s gotten the call twice.
And that lead is going to be gone in a jiffy. No good options here with Sale hitting the wall. Lee’s in the tank and Fuentes is regressing into the postseason with a 1.57 WHIP in his last five games.
EDIT: That’s ballgame.
It is often said that baseball playoffs are a crapshoot but the Braves are particularly bad at it. If we lose today, that will mean that out of the last 15 playoff appearances, we have lost the first game of the postseason 14 times. The only exception is the 2020 COVID shortened season. Just really unlucky I guess.
Didn’t even need to get to October to see the October Braves.
Way to redeem yourself Riley!!
Un-freakin’-believable….
aaaaand all is forgiven, Austin
RILEY! All is forgiven!
Edit- jinx
Also, I’m watching at work with the sound off and 80s hits playing in the office. The disconnect between watching Riley round the bases and watching the crowd go wild, and hearing Whitney Houston wondering how she will know if he really loves her, is quite jarring.
I’m sure we all had that on our bingo cards!
First time I remember Austin coming through all year. Hell of a time for it!
Not only a spectacular comeback win for us, but an absolute soul-crusher for Philly.
5 is enough to win!
First pass with the dice at the crap table… eight the hard way.
hit that magic number of 5 and RILEY!! The Braves are gonna be fullpack all year…… I sure thought all was lost after Didier gave up that triple. Even a bad Sale might not have given up a triple. As I mentioned, we did not get much off Luzardo. but that’s the second time we ping’d Duran. All that matters is winning, right?
We got to both McFarlane and Duran, RH pitchers……..
So as I was saying, we went 14 postseason appearances over a quarter century and only won game 1 one time in a fluky COVID year. Winning that first postseason game is an unfamiliar feeling for Braves fans. Go Braves!
Anything that makes Don Mattingly answer for a loss is great in my book.
And I should add, I’ve been reading and occasionally giving comment since the days of Mac. I’ll leave it to JonathanF (great job this year!) to quantify if this year’s negativity is more or less than previous years, but it has seemed excessive (I know…I know…doomed.) Just upthread at least 3 counted them out after the lead changed. How about a little hope, folks?
It worked out (and I’ll champion my Chipper jersey that I put on when we needed some runs. Surely that helped…right?)
Thank you. It would take someone who (a) had a great grasp of statistics; (b) had ready access to every Braves Journal comment; and (c) was interested in quantifying negativity to answer your question. Unfortunately, I have only two of the three… (and don’t ask which two.)
That said, I confess to goading ONIO into his comments; as I said a couple of days ago, it takes all kinds to make a community.
I think 2016 and 2017 were more negative, although, to be fair, we had a great deal more to be negative about.
Great job, tfloyd! Do it again tomorrow, please.
The 5, 6, 7 hitters today (MHII, Ozzie & Riley) were 5 for 8 with a BB, a 3B, a HR, 5 R, 4 RBI.