In the past, somebody on here got stuck on calling the Marlins “Pure Evil.” I thought it was overkill until Jose Urena decided to judge his command and control by how consistently he hit Ronald Acuna, Jr. But for today, at least they are Semi-Evil.
This is a mostly erudite audience that has fair to spectacular knowledge of how certain things occur based on probabilities and not things like jinxes. And yet, yesterday I felt that those two concepts came together. I had a grandson baseball game at 5:30 (his team won 18 to 13 and he reached base 3 times and fielded pretty well except he tended to try to chase down the runners instead of throwing it to a base or to the pitcher to get “time’). So, I caught a little pregame chatter by Ben and Joe (like Jim Powell isn’t better than both of them?). Well Joe was talking about how sometimes it was WHEN you played somebody and not WHO you played. The Marlins had scored 3 runs in 3 games in Detroit. In their last 10 games, they had scored 15. Well, to me probability indicates that they were highly likely to soon have a correction. I just checked and the 1965 Mets have the lowest runs scored total of any MLB team since 1950 at 495 runs. In a 162 game schedule, 3 runs per game comes out to 486. So, this team would have to be twice as bad as the worst team in Major League history for this “trend” to continue. So, it was probability, right? But ti feels liek a jinx.
Grant Holmes was the lesser version of himself. He seemingly sailed for 3 innings. But inning 4 looked rough. Maybe it was an “episode.” In post game commentary, Walt Weiss said what I suspected (but in understated terms). “this guy went a long was 5 days ago, he has partially torn UCL AND flexor tendon, and I am NOT pushing the issue.” And Holmes post game channeled Richard Pryor as Mudbones visiting Miss Rudolf the Voodoo Lady “and I had to accept that.” The inning started single, BB, BB. Then, a glimmer of hope with a sacrifice fly. Then single, fly out, single, strike out and it is 3 to 0, Marlins. Manageable. Could Holmes have righted the ship? I guess we won’t know. Will Holmes get checked out??? 19% win probability.
Then, the Braves showed life and all seemed well. Drake Baldwin singled. Matt Olson singled. Austin Riley singled, and it is 3 to 1 Marlins with no outs. Mike Yastrzemski singled and it was 3 to 2, with no outs. Now win probability was 58.8%. Ozzie Albies hit a foul pop up behind the plate and then Dominick Smith hit a sac fly and it was 54.4 % win probability.
So, Weiss turned to Aaron Bummer, one of the current Braves Journal whipping boys. He took a 54.4% win probability and turned it into 16.6% win probability. So, you come out from under the rockslide and have to remember to hold up your umbrella to deflect the next big rock falling which promptly flattens you all over again.
Well, The Braves got one more back, but threatened a lot in 5, and also in 6, but only had one run in 5 to show for it.
Another with the Marlins tonight. And Joe, keep your mouth shut.
In the past, somebody on here got stuck on calling the Marlins “Pure Evil.” I thought it was overkill until Jose Urena decided to judge his command and control by how consistently he hit Ronald Acuna, Jr. But for today, at least they are Semi-Evil.
This is a mostly erudite audience that has fair to spectacular knowledge of how certain things occur based on probabilities and not things like jinxes. And yet, yesterday I felt that those two concepts came together. I had a grandson baseball game at 5:30 (his team won 18 to 13 and he reached base 3 times and fielded pretty well except he tended to try to chase down the runners instead of throwing it to a base or to the pitcher to get “time’). So, I caught a little pregame chatter by Ben and Joe (like Jim Powell isn’t better than both of them?). Well Joe was talking about how sometimes it was WHEN you played somebody and not WHO you played. The Marlins had scored 3 runs in 3 games in Detroit. In their last 10 games, they had scored 15. Well, to me probability indicates that they were highly likely to soon have a correction. I just checked and the 1965 Mets have the lowest runs scored total of any MLB team since 1950 at 495 runs. In a 162 game schedule, 3 runs per game comes out to 486. So, this team would have to be twice as bad as the worst team in Major League history for this “trend” to continue. So, it was probability, right? But ti feels liek a jinx.
Grant Holmes was the lesser version of himself. He seemingly sailed for 3 innings. But inning 4 looked rough. Maybe it was an “episode.” In post game commentary, Walt Weiss said what I suspected (but in understated terms). “this guy went a long was 5 days ago, he has partially torn UCL AND flexor tendon, and I am NOT pushing the issue.” And Holmes post game channeled Richard Pryor as Mudbones visiting Miss Rudolf the Voodoo Lady “and I had to accept that.” The inning started single, BB, BB. Then, a glimmer of hope with a sacrifice fly. Then single, fly out, single, strike out and it is 3 to 0, Marlins. Manageable. Could Holmes have righted the ship? I guess we won’t know. Will Holmes get checked out??? 19% win probability.
Then, the Braves showed life and all seemed well. Drake Baldwin singled. Matt Olson singled. Austin Riley singled, and it is 3 to 1 Marlins with no outs. Mike Yastrzemski singled and it was 3 to 2, with no outs. Now win probability was 58.8%. Ozzie Albies hit a foul pop up behind the plate and then Dominick Smith hit a sac fly and it was 54.4 % win probability.
So, Weiss turned to Aaron Bummer, one of the current Braves Journal whipping boys. He took a 54.4% win probability and turned it into 16.6% win probability. So, you come out from under the rockslide and have to remember to hold up your umbrella to deflect the next big rock falling which promptly flattens you all over again.
Well, in 6, Rolldy Munoz got his chance. And he 3 peated the 3 peat. 3 can represent the dietetic, diabetic, no dialectic, that’s it. The Breves are good., No, the Braves are bad. Well, sometimes the Braves are good and sometimes they are bad. Lat night, they were bad.
Well, The Braves got one more back, but threatened a lot in 5, and also in 6, but only had one run in 5 to show for it.
Another with the Marlins tonight. And Joe, keep your mouth shut.
Walks are gonna be the death of us. Along with foul pop-ups and strikeouits with men in scoring position and less than two outs.
I could hear you barking at your TV in that 3rd inning Roger! The pop up with men in scoring position, the sac fly with a man on 2nd, the third out at third. What a clown show.
Re: cliff
Bummer’s fastball velocity surely has declined. It peaked in 2020-21 in the 95.5 range and then declined steadily to about 90. When we extended him, he had come off a season with a sub-3 FIP and was still throwing a 93 mph fastball, striking out 11+ men per 9. Last season, he thanked us with a 3.5 FIP and 8 K per 9 thanks to a 91 mph fastball. These trends are not positive and are likely accelerating before our eyes. His only value now is as a LOOGY. Maybe. Otherwise he is batting practice.