Cliff noted yesterday that posters on this site have “fair to spectacular knowledge of how certain things occur based on probabilities.”  He’s right, although my own knowledge of probabilities brings down the site average.  But here’s something I know.  The number one hit on the pop charts in December 1963 had the lowest probability of being a hit of any pop song ever.  That song was “Dominique” by the Singing Nun.  Yes, she really was a nun, of the Dominican Order, and the song was about St. Dominic, the 13th Century Spanish founder of her Order.  And the song was entirely in French.  What were the odds?

Probably about the same as our own St. Dominic Smith becoming the greatest clutch hitter we have seen for many years. 

Tonight, in the bottom of the 8th, with the Braves trailing 5-3 and with two outs and two strikes, Dom stroked a double to the gap in left that cleared the bases and gave the Braves a 6-5 lead.  Iglesias got them 1-2-3 in the 9th to save the victory.  This one was probably even bigger than the walkoff grand slam in the first series, in that the Braves were trailing by two in this one.

And it was especially satisfying after the way this game began.  After an inning and a half, the Braves were already down 4-0.  Given the way Reynaldo had pitched in those first two innings, there was every reason the Marlins were heading once again for double digits in runs.  Lopez wasn’t sharp in the first, surrendering a run on a walk, single, and sac fly.  By the second, it was clear that Lopez was struggling big time.  He couldn’t locate his slider, and his fastball velo was down around 91-92 mph.  Walk, single, single, double, and single (and three stolen bases!) made the score 4-0, and it would have been much worse had they not thrown a Marlin out at the plate. Fortunately Yaz made a terrific catch on a sinking liner to end the inning, but still the probabilities were not in the Braves favor. Lopez’s pitch count was dangerously high and his stuff looked awful.  Moreover, the Braves did not really have a long reliever ready.

But somehow Lopez righted the ship. He started getting them out with his curveball, a pitch he doesn’t use often, and his fastball velo ticked up to 94.   He got them in order in the third and fourth, with two K’s in each inning, and only allowed a walk in the 5th.  Meanwhile, the Braves got on the board in the bottom of the 2nd, on an Ozzie double followed by a Dominic Smith (remember that name) run scoring single.  In the third, our guys plated a couple on a Dubon single, Baldwin double, and Olson double. 

It remained 4-3 until the 8th.  By going 5 innings, Lopez allowed WW to use only his four best relievers.  Lee and Kinley took care of the 6th and 7th, but in the 8th Robert Suarez surrendered his first run of the season.  He’s outstanding, but he’s not perfect, I guess. 

So it’s 5-3 entering the bottom of the 8th.  The Drake led off with a single, but outs by Olson and Riley left him on first with two outs.  Yaz smacked a sharp single to right, and Ozzie got hit by a pitch, bringing up St. Dominic with the bases loaded.  He quickly fell behind 0-2, and then fouled off a couple of pitches, before driving a breaking ball into the left field gap.  Ozzie scored easily from first, and the Braves had the lead.  As the Singing Nun sang,

Domi-nique -nique -nique, o’er the land he plods along,

And sings a little song.

Never asking for reward,

He just talks about the Lord,

He just talks about the Lord.

I know that Dominic Smith makes me want to thank the Lord.

MORE ON PROBABILITIES

Yesterday, Rolddy Monoz pitched for the Braves. He didn’t pitch well, and they sent him back down right after his appearance. That might seem harsh.  But today is his birthday (April 14), so he got to spend a small part of his birthday in the Show. How many of us can say that? Happy Birthday, Rolddy!

You may recall that when the Braves signed Rolddy Munoz in 2018, they also signed Roddery Munoz.  What are the odds that two young pitchers have the same birthday?  If you already know they are twins, which Rolddy and Roddery are, the chance they have the same birthday is nearly, but not quite, 100%.  And indeed Roddery’s birthday is also April 14.

You know who else was born on April 14?  Greg Maddux–and David Justice.  In fact, they were born on the same day in 1966.  (As far as I know they are not twins.)  Happy 60th, Greg and Dave!  What are the odds that, if you know Maddux was born on April 14, that any particular teammate was also born on April 14?  Again, I’m no statistician, but I think the odds are about 365 to 1.  On the other hand, what are the odds that any two people on a 25 man roster will share a birthday?  Higher than most of us think—about 57%. 

It so happens that Steve Avery was also born on April 14 (but four years after Maddux and Justice).  What are the odds that three teammates on a 25 man roster will share a birthday?  About 1 in 58.  But what are the odds that three all star caliber players on a World Series winning team would share a birthday?  I have no idea.  How often has that actually happened in MLB history?  I don’t know, but I know someone with a database who could probably find out.

With tonight’s win, the Braves remain the only team in MLB that has not lost a series.  Win tomorrow behind Bryce Elder, and they keep that streak alive.