The State of the Universe
Have the Braves been painful to watch for two months now and particularly painful to watch in the last two weeks? Yes. Might they never recover this season? Yes. But it’s a really long season, as I’ve been telling you for some time. Living up here in the NY Metro area I had to listen to Yankees fans telling me in June how the World Series trophy might as well be engraved now. My response: “Maybe, but it’s a long season.”
For those of you who don’t scour Braves Journal comments, our text today comes from ububba:
It occurred to me last night that our season & the Yanks’ have been somewhat similar. After big starts, both teams quit hitting altogether. In the case of the Yanks, 2 guys kept mashing, but for the Braves only one. (And why would anyone ever throw the ball over the plate to Aaron Judge when the next hitter is Austin Wells or J.D. Davis?)
ATL’s leadoff hitter’s OBP is .299; the Yanks don’t have a leadoff hitter — it’s musical chairs in that slot until the trade deadline. The pattern: Get runners on base & leave ’em there. Crushed baseballs always seem to find a glove. Well-pitched games can go unrewarded. Every deficit seems like a mountain.
Currently, both are hanging onto the 1st WC spot by their fingernails. Only real difference is that the Phils are better than the O’s, so the Yanks have less distance to the top of their division. And at the paces that these 2 clubs are keeping, snagging any of the 3 WC slots will be a relief.
Since I couldn’t have said that better myself, I won’t try. But I’ll say this: it’s a l—o—n—g season, and at this point in 2021 the Braves were still under .500.
Preview of My Next Retrosheet Piece
Here are the scoring rates for a man on third by team from 2000-2023.
| No Outs | One Out | |
|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0.9454 | 0.6440 |
| COL | 0.9406 | 0.6512 |
| NYA | 0.9391 | 0.6697 |
| ANA | 0.9372 | 0.6719 |
| TEX | 0.9325 | 0.6713 |
| BOS | 0.9321 | 0.6643 |
| KCA | 0.9303 | 0.6681 |
| HOU | 0.9301 | 0.6529 |
| MIA | 0.9301 | 0.6443 |
| MIN | 0.9295 | 0.6619 |
| CLE | 0.9294 | 0.6592 |
| OAK | 0.9273 | 0.6513 |
| CIN | 0.9266 | 0.6337 |
| PIT | 0.9258 | 0.6479 |
| Average | 0.9255 | 0.6527 |
| NYN | 0.9252 | 0.6475 |
| TBA | 0.9239 | 0.6524 |
| FLO | 0.9235 | 0.6518 |
| ATL | 0.9235 | 0.6432 |
| TOR | 0.9226 | 0.6625 |
| CHN | 0.9224 | 0.6316 |
| PHI | 0.9211 | 0.6549 |
| DET | 0.9211 | 0.6457 |
| SLN | 0.9207 | 0.6559 |
| SFN | 0.9204 | 0.6548 |
| BAL | 0.9195 | 0.6624 |
| LAN | 0.9187 | 0.6554 |
| SDN | 0.9186 | 0.6349 |
| CHA | 0.9172 | 0.6612 |
| MON | 0.9134 | 0.6463 |
| MIL | 0.9121 | 0.6243 |
| WAS | 0.9106 | 0.6533 |
| ARI | 0.9061 | 0.6421 |
I’m not going to exactly explain my methodology here — that’ll come later in the full piece. (And I just noticed a few minor errors, since FLO and MIA are the same team, as are WAS and MON.) But the bottom line is that the Braves are pretty much average at this “skill,” if it’s a skill.
The Game
My YouTubeTV account no longer provides SNY, so I was going to be blacked out of today’s game on the MLB app until I decided to take a 5 day free trial with Directv Streaming. In order to maximize my time with SNY, I watched the entire pregame show, where the Mets schmoozers are completely convinced that the Mets will the Wild Card leader at the end of tonight. Maybe… but being on top at the end of the season (did I mention it’s a l–o–n–g season?) seems like it’s considerably more important.
The Mets go with the return of Kodai Senga, the “Ghost Fork” pitcher who finished 2nd in last year’s rookie of the year voting and is making his first start this year after suffering a sore shoulder in spring training. Kodai Senga is the only playe in MLB history whose name is an anagram of “a gin-soaked.” So I think of him as a barroom queen.in Memphis. (You knew I’d get to the picture eventually, right?) Apparently, there is no phrase that has not graced a beer can somewhere, and this is no exception.
Opposing the Ghost Fork is Charlie Morton. Rather than talking about the Ghost Fork, I want to give an example of a Morton’s Fork. A Morton’s Fork is when two contradictory premises lead to the same conclusion. For example: 1. The Braves are too good to suck this bad so they should beat the Mets tonight. 2. The Braves are so bad that they will be underestimated by the Mets, so the Braves should win tonight. Not only that, having changed the sheets from Ramon Laureano‘s bed last night, they can improve by playing Adam Duvall, which is an unusual thing to be saying this season.
Anyway, those were my thoughts going in… then they played.
Adam Duvall opebed the scoring with a two run homer in the second. He’s no Laureano… I mean that sincerely. But then in the third, one of those things happened that happen to teams that aren’t playing well. After not getting a strike 3 call from a just about perfectly placed pitch, JD Martinez hit a grand slam off Charlie. Granted, it didn’t help that Riley began the inning with an error and Morton hit a batter, followed by a walk. The bases got loaded without the benefit of a hit. But on such things as a single strike not called entire games can hang.
And then it really fell apart. Two more homers in the inning made it 7-2. At this point my eyes glazed over. Daysbel Hernandez walked a run in. Senga left with an injury (I’m guessing pulled calf muscle) after 5 1/3. Ozuna followed with a homer off Eric Orze, the only man in MLB history whose name is an anagram of Zero Rice.
Duvall hit a second homer in the ninth. Three homers again, accounting for all four runs.
Thanks Jonathan. Looking forward to getting Harris and Ozzie back.
You all have been saying “it’s a really long season” for two months now, and the Braves just keep getting worse. Locking at team batting averages, there seems little reason to hope things are going to measurably improve. The Braves have a handful of good pitching and one consistently good bat.
So the question is “Are the wheels run off the Braves wagon?”
Most of the season ahs been extremely poor hitting and extremely good pitching. If the pitching goes south, this team is just extremely poor. I’m not sure anyone wants to trade with AA any more as he’s really been effective for a while now. Some of the prime hitters are still out there (although Arozarena would have been a great get/fit). Jazz Chisolm is still worth trading for as he can not only fill in in the OF this year but play SS next year. Maybe if we can put a scare into Arcia, he might wake up. I still think we need to look for someone cheaper than Ozuna for DH (Rooker?) for next year. I can’t imagine not making a run at the playoffs, The last collapse cost Fredi his job and cost us a rebuild. It hasn’t been a long enough run of success to rebuild again.
I doubt that GMs are avoiding AA – I just think that we’ve had trouble finding matches, given our thin system. The Orioles have SO much more depth to offer.
But it’s still a seller’s market. One way or another, I hope Alex enters it.
Our system is up to 16 now. Not great but not woeful either. We have lots to trade with if anyone wants it. The O’s just came out of a rebuild more recently then us so they do have more depth. Considering they just traded with the Phillies, I’m not sure we have to deal only with sellers. Our pitching depth has to be worth something to somebody.
Austin Hays would not have been a bad get for someone like AJ Minter or Raisel Iglesias. The Phils gave up Seranthony Dominguez. Is he that much better than Daysbel Hernandez? The Orioles need bullpen help because of injury and they have (or had) an abundance of good hitters.
Murphy is finally back in the lineup today. I don’t get it. Is he hurt or something? Because if not, the way they’re using him is downright bizarre. He’s been given no opportunity to get into any sort of rhythm this year.
Jazz to the Yankees
Seems like some nice outfield options have been traded for not too much. I’m sure AA is active but getting outbid. Or he is working on a bigger deal. I’m not sure what I want to see happen other than I do not want to sell. Can’t win the playoff lottery if you don’t play.
Looks like AA gets shut out this year…..
Sorry for the late game thread. Wifey has had me hustling today