My main task of the offseason is now completed. I have downloaded the Retrosheet database: play-by-play (to the extent known) of every MLB play for the last 100 years, with a smattering of games going back to 1901. Retrosheet made a big change this year, producing a parallel set of files that should make a lot of queries easier. I made the switch, and there’s going to be a learning curve here, but I am generally excited about the new file structure, not that anybody cares.
One of the things that I love about the Retrosheet database is the telegraphic “event” field. This is a brief code that describes the play but that gives lots of information. It always reminds me of the young Ronald Reagan (pictured above), who had a job doing play-by-play for Cubs baseball for WHO in Des Moines, Iowa. He didn’t attend these games. He would get a description of each play and then had to create the excitement of the play itself as if he was there.
Those play descriptions came in Morse code, but you can learn pretty quickly to decipher Retrosheet code. For example, the most famous play in Atlanta Braves history is coded:
S7/L7S.3-H(UR);2-H(UR);1-2.
Translated, that’s a line single to short left field in which the man on third came home on an unearned run, as did the guy on second. Finally, the guy on first advanced to second. Would you rather have seen the play live or on television? Of course. But with the right enthusiasm, you can imagine that Skip Caray’s call would have been almost identical. And Chip could read ahead and never be fooled by the force of the swing or anticipation of a moment that never happened.
So the event database now consists of 15,219,683 separate events. Lots of them are very short: “K” for example. As I downloaded the database, I got the idea of finding the longest play description. Here it is:
E8/F89XD.3-H(NR)(UR);2-H(NR)(UR);1-H(NR)(UR);B-H(E4/TH)(NR)(UR)
This play is an error on the center fielder on a fly ball to deep right center in which all three base runners scored (no rbi or earned run for any of them) and the batter also came home on a throwing error by the second baseman. I think that description is actually more interesting than watching the play. It was in September 2021 and the victimized pitcher was none other than Chris Sale.
I don’t use this field all that often in my “research,” because there are usually easier ways to get at the same information in other parts of the data, but it is my go-to resource for unusual scoring plays, and I just wanted to let everyone know that I’m ready for your questions, as long as they don’t involve 2025 play. That database won’t be out until December.
“If he hits one there, we can dance in the streets…”
I love watching the whole ninth inning. It’s fascinating to analyze the collapse that happened with the Pirates. Some people think Cecil Espy could have caught Pendleton’s double. Jose Lind straight up boots that grounder. Drabek shows he’s flat out of gas after that. And frankly, if Randy Marsh thought that was a ball coming to the plate right in front of him, it was a ball.
Awesome work.Looking forward to the release in December following the Braves World Series title.
It’s good to see Ian Anderson back to his old tricks.
Not doubting you Jonathan, but did Cabrera really get to second on the play? He’s not in the picture in the video clip, and it seems unlikely that he would’ve made it all the way there before Bream (who had a lead from second) scored. Bream was slow, but Cabrera was a big catcher and so I assume not particularly speedy himself. Also, there wasn’t much incentive for him to take second, since if Bream was thrown out the inning would be over and if he scored the game would be over; if Bream had gone back to third for some reason, Cabrera could’ve been thrown out. Maybe if he was headed to second when Bream scored he was given credit for getting there? Seems odd.
Damon Berryhill (talk about slow catchers!) was on first and had to make it to second to avoid a repeat of Merkle’s Boner. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merkle's_Boner
In Retrosheet code, the fact that Cabrera singled means that there is no need for code that says the batter made it to first. Had making it to second on the throw been relevant (which it couldn’t have been in this circumstance) the description would have added “;B-2(T)”
Two other things… Watch the Lansing Lugnuts lose a game in a repeat of Merkle’s Boner. https://youtu.be/3Fr8mjRo544?si=GWQrISBT7TNpr8gi Secondly, if I were to market Sildenafil, I would definitely use the tradename Merkle.
COMMENT Got it, thanks. I had forgotten about Berryhill and assumed that once Cabrera got to first, Retrosheet considered him a runner who then somehow went to second.
Another great book that covers Merkle’s Boner is The Unforgettable Season by G.H. Fleming, a book of newspaper stories on the 1908 National League season. It brings out the craziness of that season and how the tension built in the last several weeks. I’m in a distance running discussion group that includes a young Midwesterner whose last name is Merkle. He had never heard of the Boner and said he would ask some older relatives if Fred was somebody’s great-grandfather. There are several New Zealanders in this group, and they’re bewildered by, but like hearing about, baseball. The next time the subject comes up, I’ll tell them about Three-Finger Brown.
Ha… that’s not exactly a Fielder’s Choice, but that is your basic 8-6 putout.
Re: Merkle’s Boner & the 1908 Season
There’s a great book called “Crazy ’08” that fully details & contextualizes the incident… & a bunch more.
There’s also the possibility that nobody really paid attention amidst the pandemonium and Merkle actually touched second. Imagine being an eponymous boner for the rest of time when in reality, nobody knew what happened, and there weren’t cameras to set the record straight.
Crazy ’08 RULES! I recommend that book every chance I get.
Who gets paid to write stuff like this?
https://www.newsweek.com/sports/mlb/blue-jays-trade-idea-would-swap-vladimir-guerrero-jr-72-million-braves-star-2034691
That is absolutely absurd. Like why would the Braves trade a cost controlled, present and future cornerstone for a guy that is going to be gone in a year in a position we already have filled long term?
Man, articles like that are like Bleacher Report nostalgia. I’d be happy if we traded Dylan Dodd for Bo Bichette, though.
On the plus side, here’s an article by our old friend Brandon Beachy!
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/brandon-beachy-facing-heroes-strike-out-ichiro-twice.html
I have gotten to the point where if I see a feed that is a Braves trade scenario I immediately delete or ignore. It is very very rare for any of them to come true – especially with AA at the helm. Most of it is just speculation because the writers have nothing better to write about.
I don’t mind rational speculation, but a trade that is 10:1 lopsided in surplus value is just a joke. Seems like most fans and even writers don’t understand the concept of surplus value. A fair trade for Guerrero would be Ozuna plus a B prospect or two. Ozuna is likely to put up a similar though slightly lesser season and plug the lineup hole. B prospect plus $12 million in salary difference will offset the 2 WAR dropoff to Ozuna. Plus without moving either Olson or Ozuna, you have nowhere to play Guerrero. Now maybe you argue that exclusive bargaining rights have value and that bumps you to an A prospect like Waldrep.
Peanut’s advocating for Profar to be our leadoff man till Acuña gets back, and I firmly support. He’s got terrific on-base skills and is really the best candidate on our roster, and he’s a million miles better than Ozzie or MHII, who are woefully miscast at the top of the lineup.
If Profar keeps a .380 OBP like last year, I think he should leadoff for at least the first half of the season. I expect the first half of the season for Acuna to look a lot more than 2022 or 2024 than 2023.
True, true, but I hope Hyers can get Ozzie and MH2 to take more pitches. Both of them have good bat-to-ball skills and there is no need to chase early in the count since the risk of striking out in a deep count is lower than average.
I think there’s some hope of Harris improving his approach, as young as he is and as athletic as he is. I think Ozzie is who he is at the plate, especially since his whole offensive approach seems to revolve around selling out for power.
The reason for MHIII to be leading off is that he might end up being one of our very best hitters if he does have the breakout people are talking about, and that’s not a bad reason. But the shape of Profar’s production is waaaay better for the top of the lineup than Harris’s.
Profar lead off yesterday with Harris and Ozzie 5 and 6.
Braves are leading the Grapefruit League with a 5 and 2 record. I’m sure it would mean a lot if Atlanta finishes the best of any team in Spring Training – eh, not really. Remember the year Bob Wickman made a big deal about Atlanta having a goal of winning the Spring title? I think it was around 2006 or 7 – we finished 3rd in the division so it didn’t help much. Marlins, Cardinals, Cardinals, and Orioles have won the title the last 4 years.
The Rake Baldwin. You’re welcome
Looks like we signed Hector Neris as an NRI. Probably worth a look.
I don’t hate that as he has previously been kind of effective. Wasn’t he closing for the Cubs last year for a spell?
I also feel like this guy was very effective very recently?
1.05 WHIP and 10.1 K/9 in 2023.
Yeah, Neris was great in 2023 — a 98th percentile hard-hit rate, plenty of strikeouts, high chase and whiff rates, etc. Most projection systems see him replicating his 2024 season (i.e., being replacement level), but he’s been very effective in the past and has lots of experience working in high leverage, so it’s worth a shot to see if he can fill Jimenez’s shoes this year.
Murphy out 4-6 weeks with a fractured rib. We might be starting the season with Rake Baldwin as the everyday catcher.
Dude is made of glass. This will inevitably torpedo his season like last year’s oblique injury did. Rake Baldwin it is!
I hate to say it because I’ve been a fan of Murphy since before we got him, but I wouldn’t mind a Wally Pipp situation here.
There are two camps in the Bravesphere:
1. Murphy is a failure and we should have never made that trade.
2. If you think Murphy is a not an elite player, then you are not smart.
Question for the Journal…While I know it is just spring training, does Arcia’s hitless start open the door for Allen or Cairo to win the shortstop job? Arcia is cheap, but damn…
I don’t want to transmit great optimism that Arcia is going to hit this season, but I can say with great confidence that Nick Allen will not.
I can’t see Allen or Cairo outplaying Arcia. We might honestly just be screwed at SS. Nacho can’t sling the leather and Arcia can’t hit.
Murph’s rib break could be quite the break for the Rake. But pump the brake on that take; if he’s only out four weeks I suspect they will try to get by with Tromp and one of the nonroster guys for a few games. But if Murph is out for more than a handful of regular season games you’ve got to make or break with Drake.
Cheers
I was really hopeful we’d give José Quintana a one-year deal, especially after the comment from Terry about payroll. I don’t think they have enough pitching.
Ian Anderson has 5 walks to 1 strikeout this spring. That’s not going to work at all but I guess they feel Grant Holmes and AJSS will be enough until Strider gets back.
Yeah but Terry also said this:
“There are a tremendous number of free agents that still are out there in the marketplace. Just as an example, last year, we signed Adam Duvall on March 17. And so who knows exactly how this spring training shakes out from a salary standpoint.”
Duvall pedigree you say?
I generally trust AA over me related to the moves he makes or doesn’t make. However, I’m scratching my head over 2 non-moves. 1st I don’t understand us going with Arcia to start the season. He was one of the worst hitters in baseball last year. Secondly I don’t understand what he’s doing at catcher. When Murphy gets back will it be a Baldwin/Murphy platoon or will Murphy’s backup be Tromp? Based on his track record I see no scenario where Tromp is anything more than minors depth and an emergency 3rd catcher. What am I missing?
If they start the year with Baldwin, I think they have to roll with he and Murphy as a platoon as you can’t put the genie back in the bottle unless he is really struggling. That is what makes me think that they will leave Baldwin down and use one of the NRI’s to back up Tromp until the service time date or when Murphy comes back.
On the other hand, if Baldwin stays up the whole season, the Prospect Promotion Incentive would give us a draft pick.
At the end of Spring Training, who says no to this trade: Luis Robert for Jarred Kelenic and whoever loses the SP battle. The rebuilding Sox can stick a cheap guy into their rotation and lineup each, and Atlanta can bet on Robert rebounding deep in our lineup.
The Sox. They got a lot of offers on Robert and I bet they could do better than Kelenic.
Agreed. Robert is a young cost-controlled AS coming off one bad season who can still play a good CF. Kelenic has shown only 4th OF or fringe starter potential. Kelenic plus one of our top 5 prospects is a start but they probably want more
I would prefer Elder do his sometimes successful tightrope act in another organization.
A WHIP of 2.3 isn’t going to get it done on a regular basis
New thread.