Sandy Leon is tied for the team lead in homers (with 2). Reporters following the team have widely speculated that Drake Baldwin will not break camp with the team and take Sean Murphy’s starting role while he recovers from injury, and that the team will essentailly roll with a rotation of backup catchers by committee: Sandy Leon, Chadwick Tromp, and pray for rain. Murphy was hitless prior to getting his ribs cracked by an inside pitch. For now, he still deserves the presumption that he’s the guy he was from 2020 to 2024, when he was basically worth 4 WAR a year. That presumption should last at least through the All-Star Break. But by July, Murphy’s got to show us something, or we’ve got to update our priors.
However, the team knows they can’t rush him back – last year, the whole team got injured, and most of the guys were shells of themselves after returning from injury, including Murphy, Acuña, and Albies. Harris and Riley struggled for much of the year, too, but showed signs of picking it up towards the end of their respective seasons. That collective malaise cost Kevin Seitzer his job; anything remotely like a recurrence could cost a few more jobs, and there is serious reason to worry about Albies and Murphy.
There’s also good reason to worry about Orlando Arcia, whose terrible performance last year couldn’t be chalked up to injury. He’s 1-10 this spring, too, and that’s not ideal for him, given that his two chief backups, Nick Allen and Christian Cairo, are a combined 9-25. Nacho Alvarez is currently out with an injury but hopes to return shortly. Don’t get it twisted: there’s no reason to believe that Allen or Cairo is capable of hitting enough to play the position on anything but an emergency basis, and given Alvarez’s defensive shortcomings, the Braves depth chart at the 6 feels like a banjo hitter and a bottle of antacids. But at least Nick Allen’s outhitting him this spring!
What’s going well this spring? Pitching! The Braves have only given up 25 runs in 11 games, far fewer than any other team in baseball and less than half the average. (None of this matters that much; the Mariners have given up the most runs in baseball and the Dodgers have given up the third-most. They’ll be fine.)
And other than Dylan Dodd, who got wrecked, most people have shown what we would have hoped to see. Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach have been nails. Grant Holmes and AJSS have been very good. Bryce Elder and Reynaldo Lopez have been okay, though the walk rates aren’t ideal. Ian Anderson has walked a tightrope but so far has avoided disaser. However, he’s leading the team in walks, with five in 4 2/3, and that ain’t gonna cut it for a guy who heeds to prove he deserves another chance at success in the Show.
The folks on the bubble of the pen have done well, too: Jake Diekman, Chasen Shreve, and Buck Farmer have showed well in their innings.
I wouldn’t say we’ve really learned anything about the team we didn’t already know: it’s a strong lineup, outside of the aforementioned question marks, a strong staff, and a strong pen. Last year was Murphy’s Law, and we still won 89 games. That’s still the team’s likely floor, though losing Max Fried and Charlie Morton makes things a little less certain. The ceiling is pretty close to what it was last year: a team that could challenge for the most wins in baseball. The Dodgers are looking as loaded as they have since the Superba days, but the Braves clearly have a playoff-caliber roster and that’s really all you can hope for at this time of year.
There’s baseball to watch, y’all!

Look, I’m not gonna sit here and tell you Nick Allen is a major league shortstop, but there is a strong chance he is better than Orlando Arcia in 2025. He’s not gonna homer 17 times, but all around, he might win you more games or lose you fewer depending on your perspective. Allen is also 26, and I love to bet on 26 year olds to be better than they’ve been.
Elder makes me nervous. All the signs of copious baserunners are there, but the core stats look good enough to fool someone into giving him a month or two to remind us he doesn’t belong in the bigs. But hey, not much I can do about that, so here’s to hoping he can recapture the magic from 2023.
Leon is interesting. He has been the worst hitter in baseball over the last decade, mostly because hitters as bad as he is aren’t allowed to stick around for a decade. Since looking like a breakout star in 2016, he has slashed .188/.258/.289 (.546) over 1200 plate appearances, and he hasn’t hit over the Mendoza line sine 2017 or homered since 2021. Not exactly the type of guy you’d expect to set the world on fire in his age-36 season, so of course he homers twice in short order for us this spring. Smart money is on a sub-.500 OPS for him, not that it matters much.
Elder should be our sixth starter, and i Don’t hate him for That spot. The question for me is whether Ian Anderson can be worth a rotation spot, and sadly I have no idea.
Everyone is saying Baldwin is starting in the minors and I hate hate haaaaate it. The prospect guys I read say he’s ready. Give him a shot. Chadwick Tromp is at best a careeer backup and he might not be that.
The problem with Baldwin is Ozuna. Ozuna was by far our best hitter last year, so we shouldn’t dream of letting him go, but then how do you get a young hitter like Baldwin his cuts? Bench Murphy half the time? That’s not ideal for either. If he could DH, there wouldn’t be a problem, but back to Ozuna. That problem maybe solves itself if Ozuna walks this offseason.
I’ve been talking up Baldwin for months on here and I love the guy, but I get why they’re playing it the way they are.
So, there were Superba teams better than the late 40’s early 50’s Dodgers of Branch Rickey?
Oh, probably not – what team’s more fun than the Boys of Summer of 1955? Hit Sign Win Suit, This Is Next Year, Hilda Chester, and everyone from Scoonj Furillo to Oisk Erskine to Campy to Newk to Peewee to the Dook to Jackie… that’s as good as baseball gets.
But the Superbas is a fun name!
Supposedly named after a vaudeville act…
And now Jake Marisnick is a Brave!
Here’s a competition: first one to 10 hits between Jake Marisnick and Jarred Kelenic in the regular season gets the nicname [sic!] J-Nic.
Loser gets the nicname Loser-Nic.
The winner is Freaknic and the loser is Beatnic
Curt Casali should be ahead of Leon on the depth chart. He sucks too, but has sucked a little less than Leon throughout his career.
Good point.
According to the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, the Kansas City Royals recently offered Duvall a one-year contract worth up to $2 million. The former Braves OF wasn’t happy with the offer and has since made it clear that he’s comfortable with retiring from the MLB if his contract demands aren’t met.
“(Duvall) turned (the Royals’ offer) down and has informed teams that if he is not guaranteed at least $3 million, he is going to retire,” Sherman wrote.
https://atlallday.com/recent-braves-veteran-threatening-to-retire-over-contract-demands-01jnkvs8vg40
Just a -1.4 WAR player wanting to be paid commensurate with his value
I actually don’t begrudge anyone wanting to be paid commensurate with their value. It’s a hard game, and I get why he wouldn’t want to grind for 162 games if he’s going to be a bench player. He’s been paid well, he has a family, he’s got his health to consider, and he can choose how he wants to prioritize his time. I also think that if he chooses to retire, he wouldn’t be wrong. He’s had tremendous moments for us and he’ll always have a ring.
Not sure I’ve ever met a person who does “begrudge anyone wanting to be paid commensurate with their value”.
In Duvall’s case, that is $8 million per win so he owes them $11 million for the damage he would inflict.
If I were him, I would retire unless I loved the game so much I just couldn’t give it up. Also if I were him, I’d realize I sucked hard last year and wasn’t in a position to make public demands.
Oh I think a lot of fans begrudge players wanting to be paid commensurate with their value. That opinion comes out time fans get mad at players during work stoppages. Fans were livid at Alex Rodriguez’s contract and he was worth every penny!
Maybe, but why would you just assume I’m one of those begrudging and sanctimoniously rail against that strawman instead of just making one of my typical sarcastic quips about a player who is clearly washed up.
You do know decamillionaires will survive without you rushing to their defense against internet nobodies?
If I offended you, please accept my apology.
If a team won’t pay Adam Duvall $3 million, well, as Bill Engvall would say — there’s your sign.
I suspect it’s a line in the sand he’s drawn so that he can retire with no regrets.
One of the comments in the fangraphs article on the Braves rotation, was left by “Scott Thorman.”
I also demand 3 million dollars, or I will retire from MLB.
Uh oh…Profar hurt his wrist today I guess? Might be questionable for opening day?
X-rays were negative. Hopefully the other tests they run will have similar results. I’ve really enjoyed watching Profar this spring. He was doing really well — a .429 OBP and a 131 wRC+ (it’s a super tiny sample, obviously).
Spring stats don’t matter, but there are two players that really needed a good spring for us to feel confident going forward. Tromp with a .200 OPS and Arcia at .259 don’t exactly inspire confidence.
Look, it’s a small sample size, and in that context an OBP in the .200s is not a big deal. I mean, clearly, it’s not great, but it’s not a big deal.
Oh wait, I appear to be getting a live update…
Tromp’s OPS went from .200 to .641 in one day, so he has clearly turned it around and will likely compete for comeback player of the year. In all seriousness, neither Tromp nor Arcia has struck out much, so that’s a good sign, but the complete lack of power is concerning. We see one thing in spring and coaches and scouts see something completely different. Whatever the case, I don’t see anything unexpectedly positive from them so far. Hopefully the coaches do.
Bryce Elder ladies and gentleman. His ERA is up to 6.52 and gave up 2 homers.
Elder isn’t good; Ian Anderson has looked shaky and two of his three starts have been against the Marlins, perhaps the worst team in baseball; AJSS needs more time and only has one more option. I still don’t know why we didn’t sign another starter.
AJC Braves quiz:
https://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-braves/can-you-ace-this-quiz-about-atlanta-braves-history/6XP7RI3Z5RH3XOR25ULTYEFY4M/
I wonder how well Eli White has to play to earn the SS job. Arcia is ice cold, and White’s hits are falling. I’m sure they’ll both return to norms before it’s all said and done, but at some point, that’s a starter battle to follow if Arcia continues to be terrible.
White hasn’t played shortstop in a regular season game since 2019, when he was 25 – he’s 30 now – and it’s not like he has the bat of Troy Glaus or Mookie Betts to make up for it. I think he’s got the inside track on all-purpose infield sub, but I also think that Nick Allen or Christian Cairo are more likely to take the job from Arcia (and I still would put the odds of anyone but Arcia breaking camp with the job below 5% ).
If Ozzie’s defense hadn’t nosedived, I would’ve said he was a better pick to move across the diamond, since he came up as a shortstop too. But he clearly no longer has the arm or the range to make that work.
I sort of expected the regression bug to hit the Braves last season, yet I did not expect the offense would slump so much, Ozuna aside. In fact I expected Ozuna to regress the most last year!
So I think some positive regression this year is in order. I’ll lay down who I think will improve this season:
Olson
Riley
Harris
Albies
Murphy
Regress – Ozuna
Stay the same – Arcia and Acuna (coming off injury I can’t see him producing great numbers)
I’m not worried about the offense. Pitching though, like most people here I think we are taking a huge gamble by not signing someone. I guess we can pick someone up mid-season if needed, but I would feel a whole lot better if we had a Buehler or Scherzer in the rotation.
But overall I kind of like that we’re not on the media’s radar. I feel we’ll surprise the Phillies and the Mets this season.
Dunno about the overall sports media, but Vegas still likes us.
The Dodgers top the wins over/under at 103.5. (They hit 104.5 in one sports book.)
The Braves are 2nd overall in the books I’ve seen, topping out at 93.5. (Phils 91.5, Mets 90.5, Yanks 89.5, etc.)
I assume the over/under is set not to reflect what number of wins Vegas expects, but the number Vegas expects would lead to an equal number of over and under bets, i.e., reflecting Vegas’s views of the bettors’ likely views, which might not be the same thing. If most bets are influenced by sentiment, I expect the over/under number for the Yankees might be a little higher than, say, Fangraphs’ expected wins for the Yankees. (Maybe the opposite would hold for the Mets, since I think of most Mets fans as being pessimists.) It would be interesting if someone who cares more about this than I do (Jonathan?) would look at Vegas preseason wins over/unders for the last 20 years and see whether large-market teams as a whole “outperformed” the Vegas numbers.
Ian Anderson has given up three hits and one run all spring, but he’s also walking a batter an inning and has twice as many walks as strikeouts — he’s leading the majors in walks!
Right now, this guy is making Damian Moss look like Greg Maddux.
As noted above, spring training stats don’t matter, but if there is one critical stat for pitchers during spring, it’s walks. Unfortunately Ian Anderson is struggling to find the plate. Unless he shows marked improvement soon, I don’t see him sticking around. As a starter he can’t make it past 5 innings. As a reliever it will eventually catch up to him.
Live data for this game on Gameday is pretty limited, but from what I can tell, Anderson has only gotten, what, one or two whiffs? In almost 5 innings of work? He’s never been a high strikeout guy, but the walks and the severe lack of swing and miss are rather concerning. It may be a small Spring Training sample, but it definitely doesn’t inspire confidence going forward. That .100 BABIP he’s running just isn’t sustainable.
At this point he is pulling off an Elder like magic show with the lack of swing and miss and the low BABIP. Probably 5th starter at best right now and that might be a stretch.
i would rather have anderson be given a long leash then elder. we have seen enough of him, we know what he is
Ian Anderson is no longer a big league pitcher and there was really nothing about his 2024 AAA performance to warrant any optimism.
A lot of pitchers were available at pretty reasonable contracts this offseason. I don’t get it.
Well, cross Anderson Pilar off the bullpen candidate list.
So Riley got hit on the hand with a pitch and had to leave the game? Of course that happened…They did report x-rays were negative, but geez…
I would say Chasen Shreve has effectively pitched his way out of town .
I wonder what the “glass half full” assessment of Arcia is right now. I suppose the best I can say is that he’s working on something with his swing at the best of Hyers. And if there was someone who was in desperate need of swing reform by the incoming hitting coach, it would be Arcia.
Strider decided he would come back and immediately embarrass people.
Return of the King, baby!
I love the fact he touched 98 today in his first start.
Five more walks issued by Anderson today. Yikes.
Strider dominating in his return is a sight for sore eyes.
I understand the options system but to me when someone undergoes major surgery like Tommy John, they should be given another option and more time than is currently given. Sometimes it takes a while for a pitcher to get his control back after Tommy John, but they shouldn’t have to go to the IL or another team if they are not ready to start the season.
Atlanta has invested a lot in Anderson’s rehab and shouldn’t be forced to let him go if he’s not ready to pitch – which he obviously is not. Same thing goes for Soroka. I think it would be better for both Anderson and Altanta to get more time in the minors without having to be DFA’d or traded. Maybe Anderson won’t make it back, but I think he should have more time.