When I received this info from my source, I truly did not know if I wanted it or not:
Sale had made 9 starts in 2021, 2 starts in 2022, and 20 starts in 2023. And while the results were great, the cold hard fact was that Charlie Morton started more games in 2021 than Sale did in 3 years. There was also the Ron Washington statement about Vaughn Grissom “definitely” being the shortstop in 2023. And while there’d been a year to go by, many Braves fans still believed that Grissom was going to inherit the SS role. Fortunately for Braves fans, Chris Sale was healthy and took home his first Cy Young award and Grissom is still waiting to bloom.
Sale started 29 games in 2024 and of the 29, there was only 1 real dud in which he gave up 8 runs in 4 innings. That was June 1st. Before that date, his ERA was 2.12 and after that date, his ERA was 1.96. What’s more, his BABIP against was quite inflated, coming in at .338.
With Spencer Strider on the shelf for 2024, Sale’s dominance was absolutely crucial to keep the team afloat. Sale won 14 games, but the team won 22 of Sale’s 29 decisions.
Sale will turn 36 right before the 2025 season and carries a club option for the 2026 season. If 2024 is proof that Sale is healthy once again, I’m expecting AA to work his magic and keep him around as long as he wants to be around.
What a ballplayer. Someone in the last thread said we should trade Nacho Alvarez like we traded Vaughn Grissom. I agree – we should trade Nacho for a Cy Young winner.
Hey, Ububba (and everyone else) – I’m looking to get into Bill Callahan/Smog. Where’s the best place to I
start?
Sale was must-watch TV in ’24. Still a great disappointment that he broke down at the end of the season & didn’t even get to pitch him once in the WC round. Waited the whole year to unleash him in the playoffs, but… c’est la vie. (As we all know, the last 3 post-seasons have had similar injury-impacted results.) Hope he holds up in ’25.
Re: Smog/Callahan
I never really did a deep dive on him, but a friend (a real Drag City label fan) turned me onto a record called “Knock Knock” ages ago. Confessional lyrics, pleasantly languid tempos, some heart-tugging melodies, but some atonal moments, too. I liked it just fine, but never really followed up. I know he has a ridiculous catalog & a cult following.
Since Garth Hudson died last week, I’ve been rediscovering The Band’s 1st two albums. Been awhile since I’ve listened, but… great as ever. Their version of “Long Black Veil” still knocks me flat.
Long Black Veil is a hell of a tune. Didn’t know The Band had a version of it, thanks ububba, this is killer.
HA, yeah, no doubt. But I would take an above average relief pitcher for Nacho. I don’t see anything in his game that says major leaguer.
I am still surprised by how few hitting prospects we have in the minors, its rather amazing to have 1 in the whole org.
For some reason from a hitting standpoint I keep thinking of similarities between Nacho and Christian Pache. Crazy thing is their batting average and slugging percentage is almost identical for their minor league career. However, Alvarez has an obp advantage of about 50 points. I’m not sure if Alvarez will get many walks if he gets overpowered in the majors like Pache has. Agreed that trading him is the reasonable course of action.
https://x.com/brooks_gate/status/1886102549318553827?s=46&t=WSNPrB2JyUoeKSn2PZsXZg
Braves have 4 on the list: Acuna, Harris, Riley, and Strider. Interesting that after so many discussions about the team friendliness of his contract, Ozzie isn’t on here.
Ozzie’s production isn’t that valuable any more, he has injury and defensive issues, he seems to be declining quickly, and the contract has one year plus two team options, so there’s not a ton of likely surplus value even if he turns things around. Still my favorite player on the team, perhaps my favorite ever.
I’m a little put off by Juan Soto at #17. Like, he’s as of now a Hall of Fame talent, but he was just a free agent. Ignoring edge case issues, the contract he signed is one that the rest of baseball was unwilling to sign. Presumably if they were unwilling to just pay that much money for him, they’d be unwilling to pay that much money plus talent for him, much less the boatload of talent implied by “17th most valuable player in trade”.
Agreed, Nathan. Same with Ohtani and every other recent FA signee. In theory, those players are worth exactly what the marketplace determined they were worth, thus no surplus value.
Also, agreed, James. I’m not saying the list is wrong. I just think it’s interesting how it’s played out after people saying Ozzie was swindled. Ozzie, like Olson and now like Acuna, is also becoming an every other year player. His fWAR last 3 years: 1.1, 4.1, 1.3. So Ozzie is due to have another really good season. I would say that if Ozzie could muster another 4 WAR season, thus averaging about 2.1 WAR over the last 4 seasons, he probably has some surplus trade value for the last 2 years of his deal.
Yes, the author said “well, I had to put these guys on the list because they’re the best players” and defended his reasoning by saying it was subjective. It really doesn’t have to be. Dollars to projected WAR calculations are ubiquitous. There’s little chance that Soto outperforms his contract unless there is hyperinflation. The fact is nobody would trade for Soto right now. There are a hundred players on rookie deals who have more trade value than Soto. Lots of teams would trade for Ozzie as well and even give you a half decent prospect.
Well said, stampton.
BP’s Pecota projections are out. The Braves are #2 in baseball, the only team other than the Dodgers projected with more than 90 wins. This despite our being in one of the toughest divisions in baseball – the only division with three teams each projected to have more than 87 wins.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/
W/L projections in any sport always seem conservative because of regression and injury luck. Any team that’s really good will be pulled toward .500, so being projected to win 90 games means you are really good. Conversely, very few teams are ever projected to win fewer than 75 games. I realize you know this, but all that is to say the Dodgers being projected to win 104 games is wild. Their worst case scenario is probably a 90-win season and their best case is the best record in MLB history.
if we get 560 PAs from Acuna, these predictions might work out…..
I like FG better. They still have Acuna at 553 PAs but a lot less contribution from Elder and more from Holmes.
I don’t think we’ll get 560 PAs from Acuna. And if we do, it’ll look more like 2022 than 2023. I really fear we won’t get nearly as much from Strider and Acuna as we think we will.
New thread: