Braves fans know Matt Olson. Braves fans know Matt Olson hits bombs. Braves fans like Matt Olson. Female Braves fans REALLY like Matt Olson. The Braves were the best team in baseball in 2023, are predicted to be the best in 2024, and yet Matt Olson, who put up a 6.7 fWAR on the best team in baseball, is likely the least known elite offensive player in the game.
A Retrospective Look at 2022
Matt Olson lit the Braves world on fire in his first 2 weeks with the club. From April 7th-18th, his 1.280 OPS was the talk of the town and “Freddie Who” became a Braves Twitter trend. Kevin Seitzer had encouraged Olson to lower his hands so he could drop the barrel quicker, leading to more time in the zone. Like most changes, there was a growing pain but no one expected that Olson would go on a 547 PA slump (it is odd to call something a slump when the OPS was still .740). Luckily, Olson ended the season the same way he began it, and scorched the earth his last 9 games, hitting 6 HRs and carrying a 1.480 OPS.
Matt Olson’s 2023
The work paid off. In 2023, Olson…
- Led the Majors in home runs by 7
- Led the Majors in RBI by 21
- Finished 2nd in OPS
- Finished 3rd in SLG
- Finished 10th in OBP
- Finished 4th in fWAR
The Brilliance of Kevin Seitzer
Swing adjustments are incredibly hard, but the juice was worth the squeeze. Like Olson, Michael Harris II went through the same adjustments with his bat plane, had a real rough patch in 2023, then scorched the earth for the rest of the season starting June 7th. Marcell Ozuna also got Seitzed and it was a month long adjustment. From May on… .969 OPS.
Matt Olson, HOF?
Matt Olson will be 30 on the 2024 season start, Thus far, he has collected 24.9 fWAR. 60 still feels like the cutoff and I feel Matt’s got a whole lot left in the tank. To reach 60 fWAR, Olson will have to average 3.5 fWAR for the next 10 seasons. If he stays healthy, reaching an average of 4.5 per year for the next 4 years seems doable. That would put him at 42.9. Could he accumulate 17.1 in his last 6?
I think there’s a chance.
Poke.
Okay, I’ll attempt a response. If the biggest question hanging over Matt Olson is whether he has a reasonable HOF shot, Braves fans should be happy. I expected somebody to pop up complaining about his defense and perceived lack of clubhouse leadership. It’s a pleasant surprise that nobody has.
I don’t mind his clubhouse leadership – I think there’s plenty of room in this clubhouse for a quiet guy who lets his bat do the talking!
The HOF discussion, though, makes me so nervous that I almost don’t want to say anything. He’s a 29-year-old two-time All-Star who has played the equivalent of about six full seasons in the majors. He’s been roughly a five-win player, though he spiked rather dramatically to seven wins last year. If this proves to have been a genuine jump to a new level of performance, like Freddie Freeman in 2020, that would be fantastic, but I don’t think we know that for certain yet. At a more basic level, Matt is 6’5″ and slower than molasses in January, and we just don’t know how he’ll age. If he can keep his knees healthy, he’ll probably swing a pretty potent stick for a number more years.
I do not under any circumstances want to be the guy squinting at his Similarity Scores and poormouthing his future; I love Matt and I want him to thrive in Atlanta for the rest of the decade. But Cooperstown talk, at this stage of his career, just scares me. I’d rather let the man hit, and talk about Brian McCann!
Real talk: now that Joe Mauer is a Hall of Famer, the entire internet has started talking about Yadier Molina’s candidacy, and the two of them had identically valuable careers. Braves Country, let’s get Brian into the conversation.