Perhaps no one player better personified the absolute mess 2024 was on the offensive side of the ball than Sean Murphy. When Murphy began his career in Atlanta, the trade for him looked like a steal. Through 87 games in 2023, Murphy was slashing .278/.387/.539 and playing great defense. He was also playing in a big chunk of the team’s games for a catcher (87 of the team’s 121 games).
But then it all went wrong. Seemingly on a dime, he turned into a pumpkin, hitting .151/.296/.233 the rest of the way. At the time, I thought our hard-working catcher got worn down in the Georgia sun. Maybe that was right, maybe that was wrong.
In 2024, the season was lost for Murphy from the beginning. On Opening Day, he strained his oblique and missed the next 48 games. It would have been hard for any hitter to hand opposing pitchers a 2 month head start, but Murphy might have also had some serious issues with his approach, so the season never took off for him. He finished the year playing in 72 games, hitting .193/.284/.352. To his credit, it didn’t seem to affect him behind the plate as he still graded out very strong defensively.
For the new hitting coach Tim Hyers, Murphy needs to be his first priority. Starting next year, Murphy is owed $15M per year for the next 4 years (and then a $15M team option). While that is a very good deal for a potentially elite starting catcher, Hyers and Murphy have to figure out what plagued the last year and change for him. Murphy will need some luck in the health department, but he probably needs some mechanical work.
For his career, Murphy is a .233/.329/.429 hitter, so the out-of-this-world .925 for over half of 2023 is probably an outlier. He might have been helped by some juice balls. But he at least needs to get back to his career norms, if not a little better.
I’m pretty confident in Murphy’s ability to bounce back to normal levels of production in 2025. I have to imagine that missing two months put him behind the eight ball, and I’m hoping that his struggles are attributable to the oblique injury and its lingering effects. Having a healthy offseason and being able to start on a more consistent basis could be beneficial for him.
Murphy put up a cumulative 122 wRC+ across 1,260 PAs in Oakland before joining the Braves in 2023, so it’s not like he has a history of being a slouch at the plate. (And for a catcher who happens to also possess elite defensive skills, that makes him a very, very good player!) Also, he was great for an overwhelming majority of 2023 — he put up a 136 wRC+ (.846 OPS) in August. September was undoubtedly rough, but not in the inputs department — he massively underhit his totally-fine .328 xwOBA that month.
I know that Murphy is unpopular with many fans because of his recent struggles/William Contreras’s success with Milwaukee. I won’t comment on the possible merits or faults of the trade. All I know is that Murphy’s got enough of a track record to expect that he’ll regress to his career norms and look more like the 2019-2023 version of himself.
His salary actually jumps to $15M this year. This is a really important season for him and the Braves. He was no doubt behind the eight-ball last year after immediately missing two months out of the gate. But, a lousy season in 2025 and that trade/extension start to look pretty embarrassing.
I remember when we thought Dodd was an answer. Twins squared up a lot of balls off him.
Eli White is playing second base today. Obviously trying to see if he can be utilized as a Swiss Army Knife off the bench. I think he’s a better roster option than BDLC even as a platoon outfielder. I fear that BDLC is Soler or Ozuna out there and he obviously doesn’t have the bat to compensate.
The amazing thing is De La Cruz is only 28 and the Fangraphs prospect report on him from 2021 calls him a “50” defender – that is, league average. I wonder whether there’s any possibility of coaching him from unplayable to merely below average – the kind of wizardry that Glenn Hubbard used to work with our 2B prospects.
I am more concerned about the fact BDLC can’t hit. He has this long swing where you really have to put one in a particular spot for him to mash it. I doubt it’s fixable but he is strong enough that I can understand trying.
Eli White looked good at 2b today. He made one really impressive play at least. He played a ton of infield in the minors, so this makes sense.
Unless BDLC becomes a HR monster, I like giving that job to White. This lineup has plenty of power, I’m fine with using the bench space for a defense, versatility, contact and speed guy.