This will be the last in our “Where Do We Go From Here” series, covering both the Braves Outfield and Bench. In case you have missed the 1st 3 pieces, catch up here:
Braves Outfield
The outfield for the Braves and the Astros were the cream of the crop in 2023 as both groups finished with a 14.3 fWAR. The Braves fWAR was driven mostly by offense and baserunning, while the Astros were better defenders.
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Ronald Acuna Jr. was obviously the star of the show, collecting an outstanding 8.3 fWAR that will almost certainly give him his first MVP award. However, Acuna’s defense was not great in 2023 and it’s apparent that he struggles judging depth from time to time. However, because his arm is other-worldly, I can’t imagine that the team would move him to LF in 2024, but I think he’ll be there before too long.
Michael Harris II
On June 6th, after his 138th plate appearance of the year, Michael Harris II was carrying a .490 OPS. From that day forward, MHII’s OPS was .912, making his OPS on the year .808. And while Acuna struggled defensively, Harris was his normal elite CFer self:
- 92nd percentile in Outs Above Average
- 93rd percentile in Arm Accuracy
- 89th percentile in Arm Strength
He’s going to be good for a long time!
Eddie Rosario
Eddie Money had one of his best defensive years to date and was fine at the plate overall, but went through long stretches where might as well have left his bat in the dugout. He’s got a $9MM option for the 2024 season and picking it up is not a shoo-in at this point. If Braves do what they have done in the past and make 1 trade then sign the acquisition long-term, LF, SP, and RP are the only options. I like Eddie, but I’m ready for a LF masher.
The Rest
Kevin Pillar, Forrest Wall, Eli White, and Sam Hilliard were the 4 other OFers the Braves utilized and of the 4, Forrest Wall collected the most WAR. Eli White played CF a bit when Harris was on the shelf but was completely anemic at the plate. Sam Hilliard also played CF a bit when Harris was shelved and hit well for a bit before going 2 for his last 27. Pillar played part platoon partner with Eddie and fared ok against LHP, but was not good against LHP. Wall likely continues his stay in the org, while I’m guessing the other 3 find their way elsewhere.
Braves Bench
The Braves regular bench consisted of:
- The prototypical backup OFer that can play all OF positions
- A utility fielder that could glove, but not hit
- Whichever catcher wasn’t starting
- Someone fast
- Someone that never plays (see Charlie Culberson)
I really liked when the Braves grabbed Nicky Lopez at the deadline. The team needed someone that can play defense at a high level at all infield spots. If AA continues to platoon left field, I hope that he focuses on players that hit well from their preferred side and play defense at a high level. The bench… was fine, I guess. However, I want to see more quality and flexibility on the bench so it makes it easy to give players field rest.
I know this isn’t related to the piece, but the Braves signed Pierce Johnson to a 2-year, $14.25 million deal today. That’s a lot of money to give a reliever, but he was great this year and evidently made a good impression on AA and the Braves front office. Happy that he’ll be staying in Atlanta.
I think this is a middle of the market deal for a non-closer. Any less and you are looking at bounceback candidates like Yates. Even Luke Jackson got 11.5/2 when he was coming back from a full missed season for TJ.
Pumped that he’s back. What a great trade!
This is a good start by AA!
I think looking at Pierce Johnson signing, it is just AA’s way. If you KNOW you need something, and can get it for a price that is NOT UNREASONABLE, then you pull the trigger quickly. Wondering if it is 2 million too much over 2 years is loony. The pure club option is a very strong add to a contract.
Also, unless Charlie Morton says “no way” I expect that option to be elected, because of the AA process. It could end up an overpay, but in the past 3 years it hasn’t yet been one.
Unfortunately, last year didn’t give us one more prospect pitcher stepping up enough to see a clear 2024 starter role. Vines and Dodd are both doing well in the Arizona Fall League. However, I am very skeptical of Dodd and above #5 starter, skeptical of Vines. Smith-Shawver needs to be working on a weapon for lefthanded hitters. Waldrep needs 3rd pitch work.
I have no problem with keeping Morton unless you think it prevents you from signing a top free agent starter. If that’s the tradeoff, it is a hard no, because we might need that same pitcher to replace Fried in 2025.
If I am the owner, I do both. It isn’t worth wasting a championship season due to a thin rotation over $20 million.
I think Morton retires or is back at a lower dollar. Assuming he doesn’t turn into 2023 Adam Wainwright, you can do worse. A rotation of Fried, Strider, and Elder is really dicey unless you’re going to get a Dylan Cease or Jordan Montgomery. I have doubts that the Braves will ever play with the big dawgs in the free agent market, and the farm is not in the best position to make trades from.
I can see us signing one good starter but not 2 unless we somehow land Ohtani. He would not be available to pitch until 2025. I know a huge signing like that is not our MO, but he would at least be discounted if he can’t pitch in 2024. I would give an Ohtani signing a very low probability, but I won’t be surprised if we kick the tires.
If Morton wants to pitch, my guess is we re-sign him. I think our goal is to have Elder start the year as a 5th starter or we trade him. T think we’ll make at least 1 big splash in the free agent market, most likely at pitcher. What would you guys think about signing Eduardo Rodriguez at around $20 million per year for 3 years?
I love it, td, kick the tires on Ohtani. I know he’s on the record wanting to play on the West Coast, but doesn’t he want a chance to win?
Eduardo would be a very good idea. I do not expect him to accept such a small deal. He probably will opt out expecting to get more, and he should. He may have opted out bc the Tigers, so maybe he does accept that to play for a winner.
Greetings from Jacksonville, Fla…
AA’s gonna do something we haven’t yet figured, and I think that might mean cutting Max loose. Just a guess. (FWIW, eventually, he’s the perfect overpriced Yanks FA. A LHP in that stadium? Fuggetabout it.)
Go Dogs.
Serious question, kind of:
Were the Phillies really built for October but they ran into a hot Dbacks team or were they a lucky team that got exposed when they lost to the worst NLCS team in history? Or are baseball playoffs random?
Yes.
This reminds me of the old joke:
A husband and wife have been arguing and finally decide to go in to see the rabbi.
The rabbi asks the wife for her side of the story. She explains, he listens thoughtfully, and answers: “You’re right!”
Then he asks the husband, who explains, as the rabbi listens thoughtfully. After a moment, the rabbi responds: “You’re right!”
A little nonplussed, the couple leaves the rabbi’s office. Once they’ve gone, the synagogue’s beadle, who has overheard, comes and asks the rabbi: “Rabbi, why did you say that to them? One of them had to be wrong!”
The rabbi listens thoughtfully, and says: “You’re right!”
The Dbacks’ pitchers did to the Phillies hitters what the Phillies pitchers did to the Braves hitters. They found ways to suppress their slugging, and neither the Phillies nor the Braves’ hitters could adjust.
What makes the word “random” appropriate to use in this context is that shit happens: The Dbacks’ most talented pitcher, Zac Gallen, didn’t seem capable of executing any plan to his fullest abilities–not that the DBacks needed much more from him anyway in the NLCS–and one of the Braves’ hitters, Austin Riley, wasn’t so overmatched by the Phillies’ strategy that he couldn’t feast on their pitchers’ mistakes.
There are enough tiny moving parts in any game situation so as to be on solid ground characterizing the whole sweep of the thing as “random.”
But the same people who’d been convinced that the Phillies magically constructed a crew of high xDAWG clubhouse leader Nietzschean supermen are the same people who now will say, “Welp, it’s simply the lot of the Philly sports fan to suffer.” Whatever the narrative requires, they’ll tell you.
I couldn’t agree more with the above.
I’m thinking 31-20 UGA, ububba. Florida’s OL will have to have a game it’s not had yet and UGA will have to have no replacement for Bowers on offense. Neither will happen, so UGA will win by 2 scores. Enjoy the game.
That call was very reminiscent of Doug Dickey and the fourth and dumb call. (This comment is mainly for ububba—not sure anyone else will get the reference.)
Yup, lotsa talk of “4th & Dumb.”
In that situation, I would’ve gone for it, too. But I damn-sure wouldn’t have called that particular play.
UGA’s DC called up some unique blitz package to create pressure today & that was that. Offensively, still too many weapons and a balanced attack. Great to get some regular play from McConkey today.
I hadn’t been to this game in 40 years & I gotta say the atmosphere was much more convivial than I remember. Lotsa UGA/UF folk hanging in the Hyatt bar & it was pretty good-natured (in the hotel anyway).
Next week’s Missouri game will be a challenge. They’ve got a great QB/WR combo.
Agree that the decision to go for it was defensible. But the trick play was goofy.
Florida was gonna get dominated up front all game, so I can squint and see why they didn’t want to try even a QB sneak. The wheels came off the bus after that. I won’t bitch about the play before and the re-spot, but that didn’t help. Oh well. I got Florida’s point total correct, but I definitely didn’t see UF creating so many short fields for UGA. They have a talent gap to close.
And if they let Billy recruit — he’s at #3 nationally so far for ’24 — they’ll probably get back into the picture, IMO. They’ll just have to let this year & last slide. Build up & move on. If you keep cycling thru coaches, you’ve turned into Auburn or mid-century Tennessee.
But from the talk with the Gator folks I heard this wknd, not all of them are so patient. I’d say, “Well, you gotta let Billy recruit, give him a few years. He got to Gainesville & the cupboard was somewhat bare…” And they’ll bring up a few schools that did well with first-year coaches & nitpick at every shortcoming in the past 2 years.
OK, I mean, it’s not breaking our hearts to hear that… and the rest of UF’s ’23 schedule is relatively imposing. But you can’t keep hitting reset. The big picture is simple: Seems like Billy can recruit, so let him do it; take some lumps, but come back w/ some top-tier players. When next year’s SuperSEC gets going, you’re gonna need ’em.
The transfer portal changes some of that thinking