As we continue pondering where the Braves go from here, it’s fair to say the infield is locked up. There is no better group in baseball.
The 2023 season saw every member of the Atlanta infield make the All-Star game. At the trade deadline, they added an impressive defensive infielder, and have everyone under contract for the foreseeable future. As the old saying goes, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right?
I know, I know…we can argue after a disappointing exit from the NLDS that there is something “broke.” However, that four-game sample size is not indicative of who this infield is and how spectacular they are as a whole.
Corner spots cemented
Let’s begin on the corners of the infield, where Matt Olson and Austin Riley are locked up for the long-term. Speaking of being locked up – or rather, locked in – Olson had a 7.4 WAR season while recording franchise records in HR (54) and RBI (139). He played in all 162 games and is not going anywhere. Olson’s 2023 season helped a lot of people forget about Freddie Freeman.
Riley is locked up even longer than Olson, and while his season was not as great as he may have liked, it was still great. He isn’t going anywhere, either. Young Thicc had a 5.9 WAR season and scored a career high 117 runs. He also drove in 97 though struggling with RISP in 2023. Riley is, at worst, even with Nolan Arenado as the best third baseman in baseball.
Up the middle
Up the middle, the Braves are also stacked. The Braves have the best catching duo in baseball with Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud. Both are signed through 2024 (Murphy longer), and the key in 2024 will be figuring out what to do with them and how to best use them. Snit’s every other day approach wasn’t all that helpful late in the season.
Additionally, Ozzie Albies had a career-year offensively and was relatively healthy. The diminutive second baseball hit 33 homers and drove in 109 runs. Continuing our look up the middle, Orlando Arcia had a career year at short. Surprisingly he was named the opening day starter and he proved AA and Snit to be geniuses…at least through August. Arcia certainly regressed to the mean late in the year. Thankfully, Nicky Lopez joined the crew at the trade deadline. Lopez is the best defender of them all, and it isn’t close. Vaughn Grissom had a great year at Gwinnett and provides depth. Subsequently, Braden Shewmake‘s days in the organization are likely numbered.
Potential upgrades
Seemingly, shortstop is the only possible change in 2024. I want to see AA go get Ha-Seong Kim. Kim had a 5.9 WAR season for the Padres and makes a ton of sense. Package Grissom and some pitching prospects for Kim and Joe Musgrove. Arcia’s contract is only $2 million, which is chump-change. He is a good bench piece, and coupled with Lopez, gives Snit lots of options. Obviously, the Padres have 20 of shortstops playing other positions already. Perhaps they have the courage to make Grissom an outfielder and play him next to Grisham. Making things challenging for their broadcasters would be an added benefit.
Although Arcia had a career year, in my opinion, this is the place to improve. What shortstop options do you imagine? And don’t say Tim Anderson! Surely you have considered some. Last year’s free agent frenzy on shortstops was never where AA would shop, but Kim makes good sense.
It’s the only option…unless AA is willing to package Albies in a deal for a front-line starter! GASP! Does suggesting Albies make you want to kick me off this site? Undoubtedly moving Albies would shock Braves Country, and the potential impact on Ronald Acuña Jr. may not be worth it. However, it is food for fodder. Would say you? Are you open to shopping Albies?
Let’s hear it, friends!
From the last thread:
Who is hot when can easily be luck, and a sample size of 2 postseasons is never enough to know. Rob Neyer did an analysis of Mr. October players years ago and showed that basically nobody sustained hitting better in the postseason vs their career norms if the sample size grew large, and that included some Big Red Machine players.
I think it is much easier to choke than to be clutch. I think players try pretty hard most of the time, and I don’t think Matt Olson can decide to become a .400 hitter for 3 weeks in October if he is a true .260 hitter. On the other hand, I have seen players suddenly look absolutely lost at the plate in the playoffs, and I think the stress got to them psychologically. So to me, being clutch is about not playing worse in the big moments. Playing better in the big moments is probably due to random variation.
Addendum: for example, Juan Soto had a .485 OPS in the NLCS vs St Louis in 2019 but then he had a 1.020 and 1.178 OPS in the 2019 NLDS and WS respectively with 5 total homers in those series. There is no good reason why he would be good-bad-good within 3 series in the same month other than variance, and if you focused on any one series, you would draw opposite conclusions about his clutchness within the same postseason.
My favorite contrast with Juan Soto’s 2019 postseason is Freddie Freeman’s 2021 postseason: NLDS .308/.471/.615; NLCS .286/.444/.619; WS .318/.360/.636. I’m not sure how to define it, but I imagine that’s got to be close to some sort of record for how similar and how good a player’s results were in three series in one postseason. Even that contained a lot of variance, because he was 0-for-8 with 7 Ks in the first two NLCS games, leading FanGraphs to write an article titled, “The Dodgers Have a Book on Freddie Freeman.” In the other four games, he reached base 12 times, going 6-for-13 with a double, two HR and six BB.
On the other hand, his OPSs in his last six postseason series have been 1168, 1086, 1063, 996, 1286, and…350. Do I think he’s all of a sudden lost that much value after a 2023 season that may have been the best full season of his career? Doesn’t seem likely.
Great comparison. I am surprised that FanGraphs of all sources committed such a SSS sin as to write that after 2 games. When I watched it happen in real time, I was sure Freddie was choking, but just like that, he was red hot.
In 1996, we got as hot as we had ever been in the postseason, coming back from a 3-1 deficit on the Cards by blowing them out for 3 straight games and then blowing out the Yankees in the first 2 games of the world series. For 5 games, we looked unstoppable, and just like that, we looked like the 2023 LDS Braves for 4 games and the Curse of Leyritz was born. Baseball is hard to figure. I would sure bet on the Phillies winning it all, but I wouldn’t be all that surprised if they got trucked in the world series.
To be somewhat fair to Fangraphs, the article did have some caveats saying that it was only two games and it certainly was possible that Freeman could turn it around. He did look totally lost, though, and I guess there’s an inherent conflict between wanting to get analysis out as soon as something looks noteworthy and waiting until you’re more sure that it’s not just random variation.
P.S. Rosario a Gold Glove finalist? Dear God. He had 40 partial games in left this year, though I suppose most of them were when he was pinch-hit for or pinch-hit for someone and stayed in. I wonder what the record is for the Gold Glove winner who was substituted for defensively the most in the year in which he won.
Riley, Harris, and Rosario are the Braves Gold Glove finalists.
https://www.mlb.com/news/2023-gold-glove-awards-finalists
Did Rosario bribe somebody to try to protect his career? Does any moron think he is the best of the admittedly mostly poor defenders in left?
I guess Pillar is up for some kind of Platinum Glove.
Alex, can you make this.a separate post and delete it from here if you think it warrants it? Thanks. I can’t figure out how to post it in the Bar or create a separate post myself.
Here’s my second post on the value of RAJ’s steal attempts. Post 1 looked at the change in win probability (as measured by BRef) after RAJ’s SB and CS. His attempts improved win probability by about 1, less than 20% as much as his hitting did. My second approach was to see what actually happened after his steal attempts, including how many runs RAJ himself scored, how many runs he might have scored without trying to steal, and how the batters who were at the plate during his attempts did. This would incorporate any benefit that came from the steal attempts affecting the pitcher, which the WPA analysis would miss.
Method & Caveats
There are several issues with looking at it this way. First, it depends on the actions of the batters at the plate and subsequent batters, which may have been unusually good or bad by chance rather than as a result of the steal attempts. Second, it (or the way I’m doing it) requires an assumption that the batters at the plate and afterwards would’ve done the same in the absence of the steal attempts. That seems as good an assumption as any to me. Even if you don’t assume they would’ve done the same in each instance, it seems plausible that they would’ve hit similarly in the aggregate and that the overall results would’ve been similar. (Fwiw, I only found two instances when it looked obvious that the results might have been different without the steal attempts. On August 20 there was an IBB immediately after a successful steal, and on September 27, if RAJ hadn’t stolen, he wouldn’t have scored a game-tying run in the 8th and would’ve been on third when Albies tried to steal second and was thrown out to end the inning, and Albies might not have risked it with the game not tied.) Third, neither this way nor the WPA method considers the value or cost of having him running when the ball was put in play; I assume that between keeping the team out of DPs and giving him a better chance to take extra bases on hits, the benefits outweighed the costs of possibly occasionally being doubled up on line drives. Fourth, neither method considers any benefit to other batters during PAs when he was on but didn’t try to steal that might have been caused by the threat of him stealing.
How Often Did RAJ Score Because He Stole?
RAJ stole 73 bases and scored 32 times. (He had 71 chances to score – twice he stole second and third after reaching first, though he didn’t score either time.) If he hadn’t run those 32 times and the subsequent batters had done what they actually did, he would’ve scored anyway at least 20 times, and I think there were between 5 and 12 times when he wouldn’t have scored. The 20 were obvious cases such as home runs or combinations of walks and hits from succeeding batters with no intervening grounders that might have resulted in a force or a DP. I’ll list the other 12 at the end of this post, but depending on your assumptions, there were more or less 5 times he would not have scored without stealing, 1 time he probably would not have scored, 3 times he might have scored, and 3 times he probably would have scored anyway. I assume it’s just coincidence that 9 of the 12 of his apparently most valuable steals happened in the second half of the year and that four were in the last two series.
Caught Stealing
Nine or so extra runs has some value, but he also was caught stealing 14 times. (This includes two times when he was picked off and thrown out running to the next base, but it doesn’t include times he was picked off at the base he was on, as these aren’t counted as CS. I noticed two of the latter, but I wouldn’t have seen any that happened in games when he didn’t attempt a steal or any that happened after his last steal attempt of a game.)
Of RAJ’s 14 CS, there were 7 when I thought he would have or might have scored if he hadn’t run and 7 when he wouldn’t have scored anyway. I’ll list at the end of the post the seven times when I thought his unsuccessful attempt may have cost a run.
Those 14 CS also gave the team one fewer out to work with for the rest of the game, but that appears to be somewhat compensated for by the number of times his successful steals kept the team out of double plays – I found 7 times when I thought they probably did and 5 times when they may have, but I won’t list those unless anyone wants me to.
Did His Attempts Win or Lose any Games?
I only found one game in which it looked like the team probably wouldn’t have won without RAJ’s steal and one in which it looked like the team might have won had he not been caught stealing. Both are included in the lists at the end of the post, and both also are in the high-WPA-added/subtracted groups mentioned in my previous post.
The former was the September 27 game against the Cubs in which he had two high-impact steals. After the fact, it was the 8th inning steal that was essential and not the one that led to his game-winning run in the 10th, even though the 10th-inning one had a higher WPA before the fact. Had he not stolen second in the 8th, Albies’s single to right would’ve moved him to third, but the inning would’ve ended when Albies was caught trying to steal second as Riley struck out. If you don’t think Albies would have run with a runner on third down a run, well, Olson popped out leading off the 9th, and that would’ve ended the 8th anyway. Yates gave up a run in the 9th, so Ozuna’s HR wouldn’t have been enough (though the team would’ve had one more out to try and a runner on third) and the Cubs probably would’ve won. Instead, the game went to extras, and RAJ and Albies won it in the 10th with another single-SB-single sequence.
The latter was the May 30 2-1 loss to Oakland. If RAJ had not been PO/CS’d and had reached third on Olson’s single to center and scored on Riley’s 5-4-3 GIDP and all else had continued as it did afterwards, going into the bottom of the 9th the team would’ve been ahead either 2-1 or 3-1 (if Pillar had scored from third on Harris’s 4-3 groundout that was actually the 3rd out of the 5th but would’ve been the 2nd), plus it would’ve had an extra out with nobody on in the top of the 9th. In the bottom of the 9th, Riley probably could’ve taken a second out to let the second run score, and the team would’ve had a decent chance to win, either in 9 or in extras.
Those were the only two such games I found where it looked like RAJ’s steal attempts might have changed the outcome. Of the other 10 games in which he scored but might not have without a steal, the team won 7 by 2 or more runs and lost three. Of the other 6 games in which he was caught stealing but might have scored had he not run, the team won 5 anyway and lost the other by 4 runs.
How Batters at the Plate Did
BravesMarine’s comment in the Bar prompted me to see how the batters who were at the plate when RAJ tried to steal eventually did. In the 80 completed plate appearances (i.e., disregarding the five times he was thrown out to end the inning) during which RAJ attempted one or more steals, Braves hitters slashed .214/.313/.343, which is pretty weak considering that they were mostly Olson, Albies, & Riley. 80 PA may not be enough to be draw any firm conclusions (if four outs had instead been two doubles and two HR, the slash line would’ve looked reasonable), but the data certainly doesn’t provide evidence against the idea that the steal attempts hurt the batters at the plate, and it doesn’t suggest that the successful steals distracted the pitchers on balance. I can think of two explanations for this. First, the poor performance might have been random, in which case RAJ’s steal attempts were more valuable (before the fact) than the what-actually-happened analysis above suggests. Second, his steal attempts (maybe batters taking pitches to let him run) may have put the batters in the hole in a way that the WPA analysis in my first post didn’t take into account. It doesn’t seem like batters were getting into bad counts by taking multiple hittable pitches per PA while waiting for him to run, because the total number of balls and strikes before the pitches on which he ran were almost even (net +2 balls). It would be interesting to see how the batters did who were at the plate during Rickey Henderson’s attempts in his 1982 130 SB/42 CS season, and if there’s a similar result, look at high-steal seasons of Lou Brock, Vince Coleman, and Maury Wills.
Conclusion
This after-the-fact approach and the at-the-time WPA approach from my earlier post strengthen my belief that RAJ’s impressive SB and CS totals were fun and had some value but weren’t nearly as valuable as his league-leading OBP or his HR total. On the other hand, there are lots of things we can’t know, like whether his aggressive baserunning helps him focus in general and helps his very valuable batting, and whether running often helps his speed enough to balance out the risk of injury. I noticed a couple of other things, mostly just counts of different aspects of his attempts, that I might post later.
(After-the-Fact) Valuable Steals
Here are the 12 times when RAJ stole and scored but I thought he might not have absent the steal:
-June 3 at Arizona, one out in the 3rd: Stole third, and after a walk scored on a SF. The next batter flew out to end the inning. (Result – Would not have scored.)
June 4 at Arizona, one out in the 7th: Stole 2nd and scored on a single. The next three batters went K, walk, popout to end the inning. (Would not have scored.)
-June 16 vs. Colorado, no out in the 1st: Stole 2nd, moved to 3rd on Albies’s weak grounder to first, scored on a wild pitch that was ball 4 to Riley. Then TdA homered. If RAJ hadn’t stolen and the weak grounder to first had been turned into a double play, RAJ wouldn’t have scored. If the first baseman forced RAJ but didn’t get Albies out at first, Albies would’ve scored on the HR instead of RAJ and the team would’ve had the same number of runs. But since it was a weak grounder, the first baseman probably would’ve just taken the out at first anyway and RAJ would’ve scored anyway. (Probably would have scored.)
-July 3 at Cleveland, one out in the 3rd: Stole 2nd, scored on Albies’s single to right, Albies thrown out trying for second, next batter flew out to left (BRef says it was “front of home”) to end the inning, and the first batter in the fourth grounded out. It’s possible that if RAJ hadn’t run, he would’ve made it to 3rd on the single to right and Albies wouldn’t have tried for second and RAJ would’ve scored on the fly ball to left, but the “front of home” notation makes me think it might not have been deep enough for a SF. (Might have scored.)
-July 18 vs. Arizona, no out in the 6th: Stole 2nd, 4-3 groundout, scored on HR. Albies’s grounder was to the first base side of the 2B, so it’s not clear whether Arizona would’ve been able to turn a double play or would have even gone for the force at second, which would’ve prevented RAJ from scoring but wouldn’t have changed the number of runs the team scored. The pitcher was right-handed, so RAJ might have gotten a bigger lead and Albies batting left would’ve gotten to first a little sooner, fwiw. (Might have scored, team probably would’ve scored the same # of runs)
-August 12 (game 1) at NYM, no out in the 1st: Stole 2nd, to 3rd on first-to-pitcher groundout, scored on a short fly ball single to the right field line, then walk, lineout DP 6-4. If RAJ hadn’t run, I assume he would’ve made it to 2nd on the groundout, but with one out he might or might not have scored on the short fly single. (Might have scored.)
-August 20 vs. SF, two out in the 8th: Stole 3rd and scored the tying run on a throwing error. IBB and inning-ending K followed. (Would not have scored.)
August 28 at Colorado, no out in the 7th: Stole 2nd, went to 3rd on a 4-3 groundout that was on the first base side of the 2B, and the next five batters reached. The pitcher was left-handed, so there’s a chance RAJ wouldn’t have had a good jump on the grounder and Colorado could have turned two. (Probably would have scored.)
-September 27 vs. the Cubs, one out in the 8th: Stole 2nd and scored the tying run on Albies’s single to right. Albies was thrown out trying to steal while Riley struck out, ending the inning. Olson popped out to start the ninth, in case you think Albies wouldn’t have run down by a run with RAJ on third if he hadn’t stolen. (Would not have scored.)
-also September 27 vs. the Cubs, one out in the 10th: Stole 2nd and scored the winning run on Albies’s single to right. If RAJ doesn’t run, he probably still makes it to 3B with one out, so there’s a pretty good chance he scores anyway (win probability over 70%). (Probably would have scored.)
-September 29 vs. Washington, no out in the 1st: Stole 2nd, Albies K, stayed on second while Riley grounded out to deep short, and scored on the first of two singles before a groundout. If he hadn’t run, he probably would have been forced at second on Riley’s grounder. Riley probably wouldn’t have been doubled up, but it’s not clear that he would’ve scored on the two singles since the first one was up the middle. (Probably would not have scored.)
-September 30 vs. Washington, no out in the 3rd: Stole 2nd, K, scored on a single, 3-6-3 DP. (Would not have scored.)
(After-the-Fact) Damaging CS
Here are the 7 times when RAJ was caught stealing but I think would or might have scored had he not run:
April 3 at St. Louis, 0-0 top of the first, no outs: Caught stealing second, Olson then struck out, and Riley homered. (Result – Would have scored had he not run.)
May 30 at Oakland, 0-0 top of the first, no outs: Caught stealing second, then an Olson single to center and a Riley 5-4-3 DP probably would’ve scored him. The team eventually lost 2-1. (Probably would have scored.)
June 30 vs. Miami, up 7-3 in the fourth, two outs: This one’s a little messy, because with Albies up he stole second, then two pitches later was thrown out trying to steal third. Albies doubled to lead off the fifth and then Riley singled, so RAJ would’ve scored even if he hadn’t run either time. (Would have scored.)
August 1 vs. the Angels, 0-0 in the first, no outs: Picked off and thrown out at second, then Albies singled, Riley singled Albies to third, and Olson hit a sac fly. (Would have scored.)
September 9 vs. Pittsburgh, 0-0 in the first, no outs: Caught stealing second, Albies grounded out first to pitcher covering, Riley singled, and Olson flew out to deep left. If RAJ had still been on first and the first baseman had fielded Albies’s grounder and forced RAJ at second (or started a DP), then no runs would’ve scored, as Albies probably wouldn’t have made it to third on Riley’s single to left or scored on Olson’s deep flyout (and Ozuna grounded out to start the second). If the 1B had just taken the out at first, RAJ would’ve scored on the single or on the subsequent deep flyout. (Might have scored.)
September 11 at Philadelphia, game 1, 0-0 in the first, no outs: Caught stealing second while Albies struck out. Riley followed with a triple and scored on an error by the LF. (Would have scored.)
September 28 vs. the Cubs, up 5-1 in the fourth, one out: Caught stealing second while Albies struck out to end the inning. Riley led off the fifth with a double to center. (Would have scored.)
Heck yes, we can turn this into a post. Out of respect for today’s piece, we will put it up tomorrow.
Also, the Bar is only for in-season stuff. For the offseason, all posts will have comments turned on.
I dunno, Ha-Seong Kim is clearly a very good player but so much of his value is in defense, he’s already 28, and until the Padres clearly make the decision to tear down their team, they’ll need an absolute king’s ransom to be induced to give up one of their better players.
I get the argument for upgrading from Arcia, but shortstops are the most expensive thing there is, even when you’re looking at a team that has way too many shortstops. What about Trevor Story? I imagine the Red Sox would give us a fair amount of money to get that contract off their hands, so he might not necessarily be that expensive. Is there anything left of a ballplayer in there?
Trevor Story was a terrible signing. His career was aided by Coors, and his road splits looked pretty much like the first season he had in Boston. His second season was awful, and I would not take him unless it cost less than 8 million per year. He is worth a dead-cat-bounce type of look. Otherwise, Arcia is fine. It looks like the team is not convinced Grissom isn’t the future at SS. I think he will hit, but I am concerned about the glove.