Our long national winter is over! Valentine’s Day always coincides with pitchers and catchers (and a whole lot of everybody else) reporting to North Port, Florida. It’s 80 degrees there today, relatively low chance of precipitation, and while CoolToday Park got hammered by a hurricane in 2022, it was refurbished for $10 million over that winter and is raring to go this spring, as is the home team.
Some of the last significant free agents came off the board yesterday, as Alex Bregman went to the Red Sox and Nick Pivetta to the Padres. The Braves are, for all intents and purposes, the team you see. The front office is betting that the team that was viewed as the #1 or #2 team in baseball going into 2024, and which is viewed as the #2 team in baseball going into 2025, really is good enough to go to war with. And on this particular Thursday, we’re undefeated and Jonathan’s prediction of a 162-0 season remains in full force.
I’ve never been to a Grapefruit League game, and I’m looking at the Spring Training schedule, and there are some really cool opportunities to see the class of the other league. The first game will be on Saturday, February 22, against the Minnesota Twins, and it’ll stream on the radio. But the second and fourth games will stream a video feed on MLB.tv, and they’ll be against the Rays and the Red Sox, respectively. And given the Sox’s spending spree this offseason and their extraordinarily stocked farm system – second overall in Keith Law’s rankings – they seem like they’d make for a terrific afternoon.
The two biggest questions of the spring, in my opinion, are on the infield dirt:
First, backstop: How close is Drake Baldwin to prime time? How close is Sean Murphy to his old self? I’m pretty sure the team won’t want Chadwick Tromp to play 40% of the games, which is more or less what d’Arnaud was doing. So either Murphy will play four-fifths of the week, or Baldwin charges out of the gate to split time with him more evenly.
Second, up the middle: Is Orlando Arcia still a major leaguer, and can Ozzie regain a modicum of his old defensive range? The scouts seem to see Nacho Alvarez similarly to Vaughn Grissom: a good hitter in the minors but one who isn’t quite a good enough defender to stick at shortstop. He’d be a second baseman who hits for an empty batting average: maybe somewhere between Mark Loretta and Jeff Treadway. So Nacho can’t really plug our hole at the 6.
Less critical, given our free agent signing, but still an open question, is corner outfield: Can Jarred Kelenic finally tap into his potential? It took his new teammate Jurickson Profar more than a decade, so there’s still hope, but there are only three starting spots in the outfield, and two of them are owned by Michael Harris and Ronald Acuña, so he’s going to have a limited amount of time to prove himself. Slowly nipping at his heels will be Bryan De La Cruz, a replacement-level slugger who basically fits on the team as a pinch hitter. But as De La Cruz can’t get on base and can’t field, Kelenic is really just competing against the academic concept of replacement level. If he can get out of his own head, we’ve seen evidence that the tools will play. But he’s got to improve his approach.
Baseball’s back, baby! Thank God it’s finally spring!
I think Eli White might beat out BDLC for that spot. Seeing as how he can play defense and run well, and I think can hit a little vs LHP.
BDLC also has options, and I’m not sure if White does.
You could well be right about that – and I specifically have not kept track of who has options remaining, just at a glance at bb-ref and how many years they’ve had callups, I think you may be right about that.
But White’s a known quantity and they may think they might be able to unlock an extra dimension in De La Cruz’s game; he’s also two years younger. We definitely know what we have in White. Options aside, I think we don’t totally know yet whether De La Cruz should be ahead of him or behind him on the depth chart, and spring performance will likely help us gauge that.
White is indeed out of options so I expect him on the roster unless something big happens
What a terrible deal for Boston:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/43819306/sources-alex-bregman-lands-free-agent-deal-red-sox
If Bregman balls out, he opts out. If he declines, it’s on their dime.
I like the guy but I was thinking he might get $100-120MM over 4. He’s probably in the early phase of decline and there’s a decent chance he goes the way of Anthony Rendon.
This is total speculation but I think that the Rendon contract went as badly as it did specifically because of the team he signed with.
I’m basically thinking of this truly damning profile of just how cheap the Angels are. The players who have signed large free agent contracts to play in Anaheim have pretty much all suffered a series of injuries and struggled to stay on the field – from Albert Pujols to C.J. Wilson to Josh Hamilton to Anthony Rendon to Mike Trout to, at least early on, Shohei Ohtani – and I think it’s not crazy to speculate that the Angels are far from the cutting edge in player training and player health and that, in fact, their general cheapness has exacerbated the length of their players’ stays on the IL.
The players quoted in that profile are clearly disgruntled; it does not sound like a happy clubhouse, and I can’t imagine that it would be. If Anthony Rendon played for a team which spent a lot more on training, rehabilitation, medical staff, and health-focused analytics, I think it’s possible that he would have been healthier over the course of the deal.
He sounds like a malcontent at this point, but I can’t help suspecting that the way he’s acting could be explained by feeling betrayed.
I’m sure it’s been discussed here this offseason (I’ve been checking in very infrequently), but I gotta say, I’m a little concerned about the starting rotation. Strider should be good but he’s coming off a UCL injury (though it didn’t require TJS, thankfully); Sale had his first healthy season in ages last year; Lopez threw more innings than he had since his first stint as a SP; and Schwellenbach basically threw more innings than he ever had in his entire life.
I’m not going all doom and gloom here. The Braves have the 3rd-best rotation in baseball per FanGraphs’ depth chart’s projections. Still, I’d love to see them add someone. It doesn’t even have to be a playoff-caliber starter — even somebody in the Heaney/Quintana/Gibson tier would be great, just to help eat some innings and bolster the back end of the rotation.
https://x.com/justinctoscano/status/1890096861081661792?s=46&t=WSNPrB2JyUoeKSn2PZsXZg
Hasn’t played since 2023. Career 81 OPS+
Gosh, there’s a name I haven’t heard in a long time. Tools bust who just never figured out how to hit in the majors.
He raked last year in Triple-A, but that’s the Pacific Coast League, where everybody hits. I struggle to see how he could be meaningfully worse than Eddie Rosario was last year, but at this point he’s org filler.
Yeah I remember Marisnick having a brief period in 2015 or so when he looked like he was gonna be an all-star 30/30 guy and I had him on my fantasy team. Then he had a couple months where he couldn’t hit water falling off a boat.
“Not meaningfully worse than Eddie Rosario was last year” is about the faintest praise I can imagine. I really hope we don’t have any players on the team this year as bad as Rosario was last year.
Thanks, AAR, for obviating the need for my annual prediction post. I want to be realistic this year, though. While it is possible that the Braves will lose a game or two this year, it will be owing to bad umpiring calls which will be reversed in the next offseason.
I was doing a crossword puzzle today which had the clue “Eight time MLB All Star Robinson” and I kept bashing my head trying to either fit “Frank” or “Brooks” in four letters (and wonder why I thought they had so many than 8 All Star appearances) or figure out how good ole “Bill” had made 8 All Star teams before I finally got the correct answer “Cano.” It made me feel really, really old.
In other news, I decided to work as hard as AA did in the offseason, so I haven’t even started to update my Retrosheet database yet to include the 2024 season. The laziness ends this weekend. I expect AA to sign some overlooked-but-MLB-ready Dominican shortstiop this weekend as well to get his offseason started. (jk, AA… though it is somewhat alarming that Just Kidding and Jarred Kelenic have the same acronym.)
https://x.com/baldheaded1der/status/1890520028736290994
AA’s rigidness prevents us from making horrible mistakes like the Xander Bogaerts deal, or trading a starting first baseman for a relief pitcher*, but it also means we probably won’t give David Robertson an extra five million more than whatever number the front office modeled. As a fan I hate that, and I will once again state our window is four years, so start acting like it.
*I hate the Adam LaRoche/Mike Gonzalez trade more than any other in Braves’ history.
That was an atrocious trade but boy there some that I hate so much more. I won’t go on about Murphy but man trading 2 loyal all star outfielders (Justice/Grissom) for one (Lofton) in his walk year was just rancid. Trading a sensational rookie right fielder (Dye) for a worse veteran right fielder and a utility infielder (Tucker/Lockhart). Panic trading Millwood for nothing bc you didn’t think Maddux would take the QO. Trading your top pitching prospect of the decade for one season of JD Drew. Scheurholz sure was terrible post-1996. Something snapped in his brain.
Trading Ryan Klesko and Bret Boone for Reggie Sanders, Quilvio Veras, and Wally Joyner.
Signing Rico Brogna to be the first baseman.
And that LaRoche trade along with Scott Thorman’s bust led to trading the farm for 1 year of Teixiera.
I was a kid when we traded Dye for Tucker and Lockhart, and at the time I was legitimately deeply confused. I wanted to trust Schuerholz because he’d basically always been great during my lifetime, but I couldn’t see why we would ever do that.
To be honest, I still don’t.
The Klesko/Boone for Sanders/Veras trade worked out horribly for us in hindsight, but it looked like a fleecing at the time. Sanders had been a much better all-around player than Klesko to that point, and he was coming off a better season. He just happened to have the worst season of his career for us. Veras had been a little injury prone but he got on base a ton, and he was an on-base monster for us in 2000 until he his body broke. Boone had just come off a replacement-level year which he would repeat for San Diego. He would inexplicably (cough, steroids) become a superstar for Seattle in 2001.
If we’re going to talk bad trades, there will always be a soft spot in my heart for the Dusty Baker for Jerry Royster, Lee Lacy, Tom Paciorek and Jim Wynn trade. And that soft spot is caused by the knife engraved with the 20 WAR Baker put in for the Dodgers over the next 8 years.
Yes, that one still hurts in my chest. Even sharper, for me, is the pain caused by the Darrell Evans for Willie Montanez trade just a few months later. Howdy Doody was entering his prime, and had averaged 6 WAR per season over the past four. He went on to accumulate 34 WAR for the Giants and the Tigers over the next 12 seasons. Montanez had negative WAR for the rest of his career–which for unfathomable reasons lasted five years.
Those trades happened before I was born, but I’m trying to understand the sense of trading a young all star for spare parts. Looks like Evans had a few monster seasons then scuffled for a few months in his late 20s and they said “well I guess you’re washed up”
Evans had scuffled for a few months which probably did cause some in the front office to think he was washed up (although he had only just turned 29 at the time of the trade). But I think the team had never truly appreciated how good he was, because he hit for relatively low BA. He had excellent plate discipline–leading the league in walks in 1973 and 1974, with 124 and 126 BB’s!–and very good power for that era. But in those pre-Bill James times, there were many who thought someone who batted .250 must not be a very good hitter. Montanez, OTOH, hit an empty .300.
Royster was deemed the Dodger’s #1 prospect by the crap standards of judging prospects back then. So while it was a star for spare parts, at least one of those parts was given 10 years in Atlanta to prove that the potential was illusory. (It was really 9 — Royster had the stones to return to Atlanta at the end of his career to retire.)
Lacy actually put up over 10 bWAR in the next 8 years, but the Braves traded him away after just half a season. Wynn was ok for a season (2.6 WAR), though nobody noticed because a lot of his value came from leading the NL in walks.
I wonder how many trades have been like this in having each of its five players play in 15 or more MLB seasons (counting cups of coffee). Baker played in 19 seasons (37 WAR), while the others were Wynn (15/55), Lacy (16/20), Paciorek (18/7 oof), and Royster (16/2 double oof).
I’m surprised nobody has mentioned getting Len Barker in a midseason deal for Brett Butler (17 years/50 WAR) and Brook Jacoby (11/15). Barker was worth 0.7 WAR and was 10-20 with an ERA over 4 in 233 IP over 2-1/2 years with the Braves. At the time I thought Butler was a good young player, but he was traded near the end of his age-26 season and it was his first good year, so I guess wouldn’t be fair to have expected the front office to realize he would have nine seasons better than that after the trade.
I am already tired of Spring Training.
Hurry up Opening Day.
A little before my time, but I always wondered why after the 1953 season, the Milwaukee Braves traded 23 year old, 12 game winner Johnny Antonelli, Don Liddle, two minor leaguers and $50,000 for 30 year old Giant hero Bobby Thomson and one minor leaguer. Antonelli went 21-7, Liddle won 9 games and the Giants swept the Cleveland Indians 4-0 in the 1954 World Series. Thomson got hurt and produced -0.1 WAR in 1954. Over the next 6 years Antonelli won 102 games for the Giants (30.1 WAR) and Thomson (who was traded again in 1957) produced 7.7 WAR.
I’ve often wondered how many more times (besides 1957 and 1958) the Milwaukee Braves would have made it to the World Series between 1954 and 1959 if they had Spahn, Burdette, Buhl and Antonelli in their starting rotation. Heck the Braves might still be in Milwaukee.
Maybe the lesson here is “don’t trade rising 23 year old left hand starters for 30 year old stars whose glory days will soon be over”.
That’s almost exactly the opposite to the Sale trade. Also, even the Smoltz trade did benefit the Tigers……
https://x.com/grantmcauley/status/1890796219712069671
It’s really easy to forget about these guys teams stash away, especially when they never played for your team. But he had a 3.01 FIP and 13 K/9 for Milwaukee in 2023. The mid-season TJ is nice too because now he’s a year and a half removed. I would think he’s just as good a bet as any to make the bullpen this year.
I think that may be one of the reasons for the slow offseason is that AA spent last offseason preparing for this one (e.g. stashing Perdomo in anticipation of Minter leaving).
Awesome pickup. He was with Pitt in 2023 but yeah those numbers are fantastic and just 3.4 BB/9. Hard to find that low a walk rate with nearly 14 k/9.
Atlanta signing Buck Farmer is interesting. Last year, in his age 33 season, the guy had a career year with the Reds with a 1.7 WAR over 71 innings, a 1.197 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 and .9 HR/9. What is there not to like and why did the Reds let him walk?
Looking a little deeper, his velocity dropped and the Reds probably saw a major dropoff coming – poor numbers over a small sample size in September? Not sure what to make of everything but he looks like a pretty good signing and seems to have a decent shot at making the team, and is a Conyers, GA product. Any thoughts?
Some of his underlying metrics (4.00 FIP, 4.44 xFIP) were a little worse than his results, and he still issued a fair number of walks (13.7 K-BB%). He’s generally been terrible against lefties, too. However, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see him make the Opening Day roster. He’s got a great slider that generates some pretty weak contact, so maybe increasing its usage and continuing to decrease the four-seamer usage (it was at an all-time low in 2024) would be a path to greater success.
On bad trades,. To me the worst trade in recent history was when we traded with the New York Yankees to get Melky Cabrera. I don’t remember who we traded to get him, but does it really matter?
December 22, 2009: Traded by the New York Yankees with Mike Dunn, Arodys Vizcaíno and cash to the Atlanta Braves for Boone Logan and Javier Vázquez.
I didn’t understand the trade at the time. Vazquez had been one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2009. Maybe it was a salary dump. The real prize was Arodys Vizcaino, and he gave us far more value than what we gave up. Vazquez had a negative WAR for the Yankees, so we won the trade even though Melky was atrocious
https://x.com/jcrofts35/status/1891343037374022036
Ok, this is what I don’t understand. And yes, I will be the first to tell you and acknowledge that putting on 25 pounds of muscle in six months is insanely hard. But if you’re a Luke Williams, Forrest Wall, or Eli White, why would you not just go ham in the offseason and just getting completely jacked? I totally get that these are twitchy, lean, fast metabolism kind of guys. But are you telling me one of them couldn’t put 15 pounds of muscle on without losing much speed so the ball flies off the bat a little more? This never made sense to me. These guys are all every day players if they could add 100 points to their SLG. Besides conditioning and throwing, what could they possibly be doing during the offseason but just working out and recovering?
My only answer to that is I believe there was one year where Francouer put on quite a bit of muscle. The main thing it seemed to do was slow down his bat speed. I remember when I was playing many years ago, lifting weights was often discouraged because it could mess up your swing. I know we have moved well beyond that, but it does seem there are some players that cannot put on much muscle mass no matter what they do. There are others that seem to mess themselves up.
I was on this plan but the recipe got cut off at the “of muscle” part.
His defense also plummeted after the weight gain as I recall. Wasn’t it after the 2007 season?
lol @ Jonathan. I like to say I spent 6 months going to the gym every day and lost 25 weeks.
Regarding putting on 10 lbs muscle, I would say it is very difficult for lean guys. 5 lbs muscle in 1 offseason with supplements and intense training seems doable. 1 lb per month without hormones is probably max for them. If you want it lean, you’re probably gaining less. The guy who gained 25 lbs is juicing unless it’s 70% fat IMO
Good luck, Luke!
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/rangers-sign-luke-jackson.html
I wonder if he’s gonna sit next to Chris Martin and Jacob Webb on the bus.
Nice piece about our old buddy Mike Soroka. I fervently wish him a long and successful career against the other 28 teams.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2025/02/18/michael-soroka-nationals/
I’ve always believed that with his extraordinary composure and makeup, he had a better chance than nearly anyone to overcome injuries and adversity.
On a totally different note, the ZiPS top 100 prospects have come out, and fascinatingly, we have three guys on there: Nacho Alvarez at 23 (?!), AJSS at 52, and Hurston Waldrep at 89.
Dammit, I wish I was willing to pay the $4 and deal with the hassle of cancellation to read about my boy Mikey.
Nacho at 23 is insane.
Why is Drake Baldwin not on the list? Seems strange that our consensus top prospect is nowhere to be found.
In a comment, Szymborski explains that ZiPS has Baldwin ranked #104, just a bit outside the top 100, and explains: “ZiPS just doesn’t see him having the same upside as some of the other catching prospects, though he’s pretty good right now.”
For whatever reason, ZiPS appears to be optimistic about Nacho’s defense and feels like his bat is more or less adequate right now.
Yeah, that pretty laughable if Baldwin isn’t even top 100 while Nacho is 23.
Zips is based on minor league data. It is “what have you actually done and what is that most likely to mean. Although higher levels and more recent data are big, Baldwin wen up during the year (and particularly compared to earlier years) in contact rate, walk rate, exit velocity, and all sorts of stuff.
FWIW Orlando Arcia was #26 in 2015
Yes, and Aaron Judge was in the 40s. Whatever method they used, the top 100 prospects of 2015 turned out to be pretty darn good.
Aaron Judge always reminds me of how we took Jason Hursh one pick ahead of him in 2013, thus continuing a long Braves tradition of drafting “safe” projectable soft-tossing college pitchers in the first round and ignoring high-upside players. It seemed like they were always trying to find their next #4 starter.
https://x.com/weaver_cards/status/1892228970646569442
Am I going full Chief Nocahoma and being really pessimistic for no reason about Ronald Acuna? I really don’t see him being fully healthy enough to put up these kind of WAR totals? If he could, I’d say we’re going to be division champs because all boats rise when Acuna is at full health.
It’s ok to go half Chief, but never go full Chief.
He doesn’t have to be at full health to be a 5 win player, I think, which is itself kind of absurd.
I don’t believe you have gone full Chief Nocohoma.Full Chief Nocohoma involves getting mad and insulting a fellow Braves Journaler (either intentionally or unintentionally). I think it is safe to say you have only gone half-Chief or at most three-quarters.
Full Chief:
-Saying future All-Stars are “just a guy”
-Saying every team we assemble is a 86-win team
-Every pitching prospect sucks
-Accusing you of being a sunshine pumper every time you think a top 100 prospect might be good
-Reminding you only when you were too high on a prospect, not when he was too low on every single prospect
-Saying walks and home runs are the only important offensive contributions
I think I covered it.
Any fantasy baseball players out there? How do you prepare for your drafts? I haven’t played in a while, but I joined a team. I’m hoping it helps me keep up with the rest of the league a little better.