For all of the offensive success of 2023, as we dive into the bullpen and think about the future, I came across some interesting finds that speak to success for the Braves this season.
One of the areas that AA takes pride in, and spends most of his time annually addressing, is the bullpen. The Braves had a Top-10 bullpen in 2023. That’s not necessarily shocking, but one of the interesting finds in looking back is that Atlanta was third in MLB in K/9. That’s not a misprint. According to Fangraphs, only Houston (10.03) and the Cubs (9.88) had a higher K/9 rate than the Braves (9.83). We all know AA loves him some strikeout pitchers, and with a ‘pen lacking flame-throwers, that number stands out. Shockingly, the Braves were also seventh in BB/9 in 2023 at 3.23. Finally, the stat among the interesting finds for me is the bullpen was fourth in xFIP (3.97).
Internal candidates
There is an “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” kind of mentality with AA…except when it comes to the bullpen. He usually goes out and finds some new arms. It will be interesting to see who remains from the options below:
Under control: Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, Tyler Matzek.
Team options: Brad Hand, Collin McHugh, Kirby Yates.
Arb-eligible: A.J. Minter, Yonny Chirinos, Nick Anderson, Kolby Allard, Ben Heller, Michael Tonkin, Huascar Ynoa.
Free agents: Jesse Chavez, Pierce Johnson, Joe Jimenez, Lucas Luetge, Jackson Stephens.
External options
Several big-name relievers are free agents this fall, including Josh Hader and Jordan Hicks.
• Hader is the flame-throwing lefty who was sent from Milwaukee to San Diego. Hader has a career 15.0 SO/9 rate and 3.6 BB/9 rate. The five-time All-Star fits the AA mold, and the poor guy deserves to play for a winner. Go get him, AA!
• Hicks is a high-octane flame-throwing righty who ended the season in Toronto. Hicks has a career SO/9 rate of 9.4, but his BB/9 rate of 4.9 may make AA skittish. However, I would hold up that after departing St. Louis for Toronto, in 25 appearances, he went from 5.2 BB/9 down to 3.0. I’m just say, 102 mph plays!
• For fun, it could be entertaining to add David Robertson, just to stick it to the Philthies and Mets in 2024. Robertson is a free agent with a career 11.8 SO/9 and 3.7 BB/9 rate.
2024 bullpen projection
Time will tell – as she always does – but Iglesias, Lee, Matzek, and Minter are locks to be in the 2024 bullpen – provided they are healthy. I can see AA exercising his option on Yates, and making a push to re-sign Johnson. I also believe he will tender Anderson, Chirinos, Heller, Tonkin, and Ynoa. And Josh Hader will be a Brave in 2024.
I want an elite bullpen arm so bad. I mean, for crying out loud, we gave Will Smith $40MM.
There is a small group of players — Ozuna, Wander Franco, Urias, Bauer, Shilling back in the day — that for various reasons I do not wish to root for — ever. Josh Hader is part of that group and I know that many of his teammates, especially in Milwaukee, agree with me. Please don’t bring that into our clubhouse!
Rather than buy an elite bullpen arm we should create one. I would suggest AJSS and Daysbel Hernandez as the most likely candidates
I was not aware of Hader being the same kind of person as that list…
This is probably about some things Hader tweeted when he was a teenager and profusely apologized for. Should an adult be judged mercilessly for what they said as a child? Should their apology be accepted? Are people allowed to change? The ethos of cancel culture has affected a majority of the population, especially those who claim it doesn’t exist.
Daysbel Hernandez is a 27 year old rookie with 15 innings pitched in AAA. He has good strikeout numbers and his stuff looks good, but he has not proven himself mentally or physically in the m the minors or majors at this point. If we are counting on him as anything other than a lottery ticket, we are crazy, which we aren’t.
Smith-Shawver is 21 years old and he looked horrible in his first 2 years but emerging as our top prospect last year. He is projected as a top-tier starter. I don’t expect him to make huge contributions next year, but I don’t see us giving up on him as a starter anytime soon. We need proven relievers that can do what McHugh, Yates, and Hand were supposed to do (Yates and McHugh had their moments, but were disappointing overall). We may get some good innings out of 2 or 3 guys that spent most of their time in the minors, but to count on them for anything other than being a bonus after we have a few injuries would be unwise.
I don’t know anything about Hader as a teammate, but his misdeeds that I’ve heard about (maybe I’ve missed some) are not in the same ballpark, or same continent for that matter, as others listed above.
Jesus Aguilar on Brewers Teammate Josh Hader: 'Obviously He's Not Racist'
Forget about Hader. The Braves never shop at the top of the market. If Lee and Matzek can come back healthy, the lefties are set. Chirinos, Heller, Tonkin, Stephens, and Allard can be signed back on MilB contracts or split contracts so they can stay in the org but not count against the 40-man (they were obviously filler last year). Chavez also on a MiLB deal. Luetge, McHugh, Hand all need to go. Wright and Ynoa could be kept and then transferred back to the 60-day IL when possible. I might sign Ynoa to one of those cheap-now, paid later deals like Yates was signed to. Jimenez, Johnson, N. Anderson, Yates, are all interesting cases but may depend upon cost and health. I like taking a chance on Hicks (and Daysbel for that matter) especially if no one else will. And I’m sure there are other potentially good relievers who will be available at reasonable rates (hopefully no more Luetges). I gotta believe any of those four would prefer playing for a winning org and might take less to do it.
From what I can tell all the “older statesmen” are in the bullpen save Pillar and Morten (and TdA). Seems like the Braves like to keep older guys on the bench or in the bullpen with the young guys starting or in the field (save one elder SP). I wouldn’t mind the bullpen getting a little younger. Daysbel or Burkhalter could help with that.