[The more common Hollywood movie pits European people against Native Americans. However, this movie has a theme of competition between portions of the Native American community over how to deal with these immigrants.]
Just as we have become familiar with the 2016 Braves, early on we become familiar with Chincachgook (Chief of the Mohicans, think Nick Markakis), Uncas, (son of Chincachgook, think John Gant) and Nathaniel Poe (or Bumppo as in the books).
Then, we are introduced to Magua, who seems to want to help the Europeans. Think Mike Napoli. Really quickly, you find out he is not your friend when he drives in Lonnie Chisenhall with two outs. In other words, he had an ambush in motion.
It gets us out of order with the movie, but as Uncas falls near the end, so John Gant succumbs to injury and leaves the contest in the second inning. This appears to be the dreaded “oblique injury.” Not quite as bad as an Algonquin war club to the head, but a DL visit is likely, thus allowing the Braves to audition another young pitcher. In other words, the casting calls go on and on.
Nathaniel (Nick Markakis) is able to save the daughters of General Monroe from Magua. In other words, he hits a sacrifice fly to tie it at 1.
But Tyrell Jenkins (General Munro) can’t hold the fort and surrenders to the French and Indian forces. That is Tyrell gives up a Lonnie Chisenhall 3 run homer. A few weeks ago, you absolutely knew after that it was over. Now, you think there might still be a struggle.
Major Heyward (Tyler Flowers) shows his heroism (hits a solo shot to tie it at 1 in the bottom of the third) in assisting the daughters and the Mohicans in escaping Magua’s second ambush.
But Magua’s second ambush continues as his tribe adds another run in the 7th. Mauricio Cabrera makes his first appearance and gives up a single to let an inherited runner score. He prevents further damage without any strikeouts. Neither does he walk anyone. Who was able to use a shape shifter to cause Mauricio to disappear and be replaced?
As we near the end, the wise sachem (Hunter Wendelstedt) is called on to settle the dispute. Wendelstedt becomes the home plate umpire after Jerry Layne gets rocked by a foul ball.
After the battle, with Uncas dead, Nathaniel and Chingachgook mourn, like Braves fans.
The Indians are a really good hitting team. I hope we don’t have to face them in the world series this year.
Great recap!
Jerry Layne looked like he took it pretty bad. That was big, as someone mentioned, that Giminez grabbed him before he headed towards the ground.
Chopcast had a big thing on pros/cons on trading Teheran. I think I’m firmly in the “wait for the offseason” camp so that you can widen the buyer pool (would Arizona have given up that much for Shelby last summer?), but if the Braves do trade Teheran, I’m confident I’ll like the haul.
Thanks, Cliff. Al Rosen was my first favorite non-Thomasville Dodger player, so I’ve got a soft spot in my heart (head?) for the Indians. It doesn’t hurt that they lost the world series to Atlanta either.
After the Simba haul, I can’t share your absolute confidence.
I would move Vizcaino and Norris together before Julio,
I am done with moving the parts that can be here for another 5-10 really good years, yet I understand the need for hitters, especially the OF corners.
@4, but Coppy apparently values defense at 10 cents on the dollar. Pitching, however, he overvalues.
I mean, if we can’t evaluate talent, the rebuild is going to fail, one way or another. If we can’t turn some present value into more future value, we will also likely fail. Coppy should roll the dice if the right deal comes along.
Fascinating fact (that I stole from a Fangraphs commenter): as of today, the 2016 Atlanta Braves have 38 home runs. In 2001, Barry Bonds hit his 39th home run on June 23rd.
I agree with deemphasizing defense. Just get some mashers and good pitching.
@4, @6
Oh, c’mon, what if major league GMs just don’t appreciate YouTube highlight videos as much as the fans of the player’s team in question? Andrelton Simmons cannot hit. There is not a marked difference between Andrelton Simmons and Rafael Belliard. He has never had a league average OPS+ in a full season. He’s played more than 147 games once in four seasons (and with his most recent injury, he’s on pace to play in about 101 this year). He’s in line to make $11M, $13M, and $15M. He’s hitting .226/.258/.284 this year. He’s just not that valuable. As someone who used to not be able to watch as many games as I am able to today, maybe not seeing him on a daily basis has made my perception different.
There have been enough good trades so far by Atlanta to give some latitude to the theory that teams don’t value defense as much a small minority of analysts do.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/kevin-maitan-venezuelas-next-great-prospect/#OQyC2oG66aCAlObl.97
Kevin Maitian may be a part of the “Next Great Braves Team” but that may not be until 2022.
@10, the reaction throughout baseball to the Simmons trade was something along the lines of, “Newcomb’s a nice prospect, but I thought they could do better than that” — at least, that’s what was printed. It’s not just that homers like me overvalued Simba. It’s that immediately after Coppy tried and failed to trade him to the Mets, he turned around and traded him to the Angels for what many in baseball felt was less than full price.
Andrelton is just one data point. What also concerns me is the idea that Garcia, Olivera, Aybar, Pierzynski, were assessed defensively and determined to be “ok.” I do not want the clown show of the ’80’s to be the new normal.
I think it’s ironic that the first moves made to kick off the run of division titles in the ’90’s was to shore up the defense (Pendleton, Bream.)
I will buy that defense can be overvalued within certain parameters, but I am afraid of this organization going beyond those parameters.
@9,10, I wasn’t trying to make it a big thing, just saying that the reason the Simmons return underwhelmed was probably that Coppy didn’t value his dWAR the same as he might value oWAR. This isn’t controversial around here. Judging from Coppy’s other trading and what he asked for in return for Miller, I think he’ll ask for the moon for Teheran.
Considering Inciarte and Mallex are two of the better defensive outfielders out there (Mallex was leading in Defensive Runs Saved), and Swanson and Albies also provide above average defense, I don’t think the narrative that they don’t care about defense holds water. They also said they were moving towards a more contact- and defense-oriented team. I’m still not sure what they plan on doing with Inciarte/Mallex, but up-the-middle defense will be an asset for the Atlanta Braves. The stopgaps mentioned (Garcia, Aybar, Pierzynski) were probably just the best players available, not necessarily a statement of their position on defense.
I don’t need a stat to tell me Mallex is not a great defensive outfielder. He takes terrible routes to balls and his arm is okay.
I’ll trust the eye test on that one.
There’s another way to look at this which makes more sense than the inanity of “weighting” runs saved vs runs produced. The fact is that glove men are more abundant than sluggers. It is easier to find a replacement bat with a strong glove than a strong bat with a replacement glove. So, if you are payroll-constrained, you can’t dole out big contracts to glove guys unless you want a team that can’t score any runs. That isn’t to say a run saved is any less valuable than a run produced, just that finding players who can save runs is easier than finding ones who can produce them.
Double post: Just checking in on pitchers we shipped off. Barker forgot how to strike people out and Belicek has been getting tagged. Looks like another good high sell.
Brandon Barker 38.1 ip, 3.29 ERA, 20 K, 12 BB
Trevor Belicek 18.1 ip, 6.38 ERA, 15 K, 7 BB
@12
…for those of us of a certain age this is simply not acceptable. The Club have been informed.
@18, the best defensive SS or CF to ever live will not fare that well in preventing home runs, line drives in the gap that one-hop the wall, etc etc. There are always going to be some balls-in-play that are indefensible. If your all-glove lineup can’t produce those types of balls, then you are at a severe disadvantage.
The argument isn’t that runs saved are not the same as runs produced. It’s that you can’t save all types of runs, but you *can* produce runs that have no chance of being saved.
So, this is good.
@21, this is your own particular way of rationalizing what you believe. I just wish you could let yourself imagine it is a limited and potentially flawed view.
If you catch every ball hit near you, make perfect throws, and generally play flawless defense, you can still lose. If you play perfect offense, you will score infinite runs and win every time. If you can’t see that the two sides aren’t symmetric then I can’t really do much else to try to explain. My view is reality. It’s what the sort-of-free-market pays up for.
The problem lately is that there just aren’t enough hitters to go around. Too many teams, not enough good hitters. Especially in the National League. Our best bet is going to be to develop them.
Wisler is really walking a tightrope.
@24, you are saying “IT JUST IS” in slightly different ways. Forgive me for not being convinced by your gut.
I’m a moderate here…better yet an agnostic. I believe defensive metrics are imperfect and that defense may be overvalued. I also believe it is possible that is appropriately valued or even undervalued. I’m just not swayed by you guys who essentially say “CUZ MY GUT” or use ad hoc rationale for why your hunch is correct.
Kluber with a no hitter through 5.
No hitter
No hitter
No hitter
That should fix it
Kluber has really gotten hot here.
Good work, CSG!
Good for Wisler gutting out a pretty good start after a pretty bad beginning.
The similarities between Wisler and Glavine continue. IIRC, Glavine used to really struggle in the first inning. I’m not sure what the numbers say, but it seems like that’s the theme with Wisler as well. Simply anecdotal, however.
If the farm system is so great why do we only have 1 player in the Futures game?
@32, I noticed that. Arguably, Albies was a major snub…probably Newcomb too. We are more of a depth system and less of a top heavy system though.
More farm reports:
• 2nd round pick Kyle Muller pitched for the GCL Braves. Do his stats even matter at this point? In case they do: 3 IP, 0 H, 2 BB, 4 K.
• I don’t know how Jim Powell’s tweet went wrong, but Max Fried did not pitch the nightcap at Rome. Oriel “Who the Heck is Oriel Caicedo” Caicedo did and got shelled.
• Chris Ellis bombed tonight at Gwinnett, again. 4.1 IP, 4 H, 6 BB, 6 K, but only one run allowed, on a solo homer. What an odd linescore.
I wish I could say there was a hitting performance worth noting but there wasn’t.
@26, I’ve never said defense was overvalued. I’m saying it’s over-weighted in the all-in-one player value models. Defense is mostly about the pitcher on the mound. If I pitched tonight for the Braves, it wouldn’t matter what defense was behind me. If Kershaw pitched tonight for the Braves, it wouldn’t matter all that much what’s behind him either. At the extremes the pitcher controls the majority of run-prevention. I want to build a team that prevents runs, and to do so I want to have pitchers that strike people out and produce weak contact. Those pitchers cost a lot on the open market, which is why we’re drafting them in huge numbers. I whole-heartedly agree with this approach.
I wouldn’t read too much into the fact that we’re fielding a rather atrocious fielding team. We’re trying to lose. It’s not fair to say that we got rid of Simmons and Heyward’s gloves because we don’t care about defense. We got rid them because this is a total reboot and their gloves don’t matter for where we are on the win curve.
@34, is it notable that after tonight, Zack Bird has an ERA of 7.47 ?
Barves.
Jim Johnson only threw 6 pitches in the 8th. Probably should have sent him out there for 1 more
Aybad.
Really not going to miss Aybar
Free Dansby!
I’m barely paying attention, but did Snit let Wisler hit with two on nobody out, then pull him next inning? Why are we so dumb?
Oh FFS why do I bother?
Safe
Why do we have replay?
Jace looks like a major leaguer again
@45, the purpose of replay is to protect the reputation of umpires
@47
I guess, because it isn’t to get the calls right
Why was Jeffy tossed?
What a JOAK
What happened exactly?
How insane–if the call had been right, Freddie at third with 1 out as the tying run
Cakes fly out ties the game. Oh wait…umpire show!
#49
Francouer tossed a hat onto the field and gave the umpire some lip, pointing to the replay on the scoreboard.
Frenchy threw his hat on the field
I don’t like the Indians.
But for clarity, I do love the Native Americans.
Recapped.