More on Hitting Homers in an Inning
The three homers in the 6th inning last night, Stamton’s request for a reasonably obscure statistic, and the return to 2023-level home run prowess for at least a couple of weeks made me want to explore the issue a little further than anyone should want to explore it. So here’s what I did: I counted home runs by half inning for the whole Retrosheet era and compiled W/L percentages for each inning and number of homers. No inning has ever had more than 5 homers hit, so here is the complete table.
Not hitting a homer in a particular inning is a reasonably neutral sign. It lowers your winning percentage by a little over percent and it doesn’t really matter what inning it is. the 9th inning is the exception here, and that is lowered simply because none of those innings are by home teams leading.
Every homer you hit in an half inning increases your probability of winning. and again it doesn’t matter very much what inning you do it in. Last night’s effort appears in this table as 210 games and 83.3 percent. The 6th and 7th innings are the worst innings to hit home runs, but ti doesn’t matter all that much. Note that these percentages are all independent of one another. Obviously if you hit 3 homers in the 6th AND a homer in the third, your probabilities will be higher than either one separately. And I think I’ve produced the aggregate home run table before.
| Games | Wins | Percent Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homers for the Entire Game | |||
| 0 | 201,125 | 78,789 | 39.2 |
| 1 | 127,522 | 68,191 | 53.5 |
| 2 | 55,889 | 36,906 | 66.0 |
| 3 | 19,516 | 14,756 | 75.6 |
| 4 | 5,722 | 4,782 | 83.6 |
| 5 | 1,493 | 1,332 | 89.2 |
| 6 | 373 | 343 | 92.0 |
| 7 | 96 | 90 | 93.8 |
| 8 | 32 | 32 | 100.0 |
| 9 | 3 | 3 | 100.0 |
| 10 | 1 | 1 | 100.0 |
The lesson here is pretty simple: hit eight or more homers.
The Game
In personnel news, the Braves were without Michael Harris II, who made the tactical error of impregnating his wife last July so that the birth occurred during the season. Timing, Michael, timing. He is replaced for the next few days on the roster by Luke Williams, and in center field by Mauricio Dubón.
Martín Peréz made his second start of the season, and with Spencer Strider nearing competence, it may have been one of his last. he gave up a solo homer in the first to José Ramirez. While we’re on names, he is not merely the namesake of the 70’s Braves shortstop, he is also, with some orthographic license, via Poland, the former Publisher/Editor-In-Chief of The New Republic. So he’s probably the best post-game interview if you have questions on public policy.
His nickname, according to BRef, is El de las Matas, which apparently means Bush Leaguer. Seems to me that’s the sort of nickname you wouldn’t really want to stick. I know I’ve tried to shed a few nicknames from high school that I won’t dignify with a mention here. Further, it doesn’t seem particularly apt, since he’s been in the majors for 15 years and, in that time, has only three years with negative WAR.
That first inning homer was all he gave up through five innings of work. There was a lot of sturm und drang over the identity of the fourth and fifth starters in the early part of the season. I am willing to bet José Suarez will not get another start. Leaving him aside, the only starter on the Braves staff with an ERA over 3.25 is some guy Sale. Send him to Gwinnett.
Joel Payamps entered in the sixth, and exited one out later with men on second and third for Aaron Bummer, last night’s fireman-hero. He walked his first batter, and gave up the second run of the game on a slow roller by Rhys Hoskins. He then loaded the bases again and faced Austin Hedges, who grounded out on a 3-2 pitch to keep the game in reach. In an excellent bullpen, only Payamps and José Suarez have been disappointing. That’s a pretty good yield.
The Guardians scratched for one more in the eighth off Osvaldo Bido to make it 3-0. The 9th was worse. A Little League play led to another run (suffice it to say that Steven Kwan scored from first on a wild pitch). Some more sloppy defense led to another couple of runs and all the Braves needed was a six-run bottom of the 9th to tie it up.
Those of you keeping track will realize that means the Braves had not scored up to that point. The offense hibernated against Parker Messick. one of only six first-named Parkers in MLB history. By contrast, there have been 25 last-named Parkers, one of them in the Hall of Fame. If Messick continues to pitch like this for rest of his career, he will join the late Cobra. 6 2/3 scoreless, with the only serious threat a two-out triple from RAJ in the 5th.
Matt Olson led off the 9th with a double and hope. Austin Riley walked to begin to pique Stephen Vogt‘s interest. After just missing a homer, Dubon struck out, as did Yaz. Heim popped out and the shutout was complete.
Rubber game tomorrow night. Bibee against Sale. Neither team has lost a series this season.
Oh man, what a delight for me. Thank you, Jon F for the brain candy.
If I’m understanding this correctly, what we did tonight was not nearly as effective as what we did last night, what with the trifecta in the 6th and also with just scoring any runs at all. Back at em tomorrow.
Excellent post. Game sucked. Chief’s book is definitely worth the read. Bravo zulu, sir.
Are we sure that Strider is better than Martin Perez?
He’s paid a lot more and he’s a lot younger. He clearly has more potential. Anyone who ever saw a Bobby Cox Sunday lineup knows that you don’t manage baseball by maximizing every short-term opportunity to win. There are longer term goals and Martìn Perez has little to add to them. Plus, we need him as a long guy in the buillpen when Strider is shelled.
Oh I agree. I just hope he lives up to that potential.
0 runs equal 0 wins. If Jose Suarez goes out when Strider comes back then Perez can be long man and Strider can get back in rotation. Is Payamps better than Karinchek?
Note that Braves are still 2nd in the league in runs scored and 2nd fewest in runs given up.
I find Strider to be a huge question mark. I’m doubtful that he can reach that fire-breathing #1/#2 starter again. My hope is that he can be solid #3 starter for the rest of this contract.
This is unfortunately what I think too. When he was good, his slider was good and his third pitch (change? Didn’t see it very often) was perfectly serviceable, but the generational fastball was what made the package shine, and I’m worried that fastball is gone for good.
Thanks as always, Jonathan. Two things struck me about your first table:
1) More zero-HR innings in the 2nd than the 3rd or any other inning. I would think that the 3rd would have the highest percentage of #9 hitters, who for most of the Retrosheet era would’ve been pitchers and so extremely unlikely to HR.
2) There was a game in which one team hit three HR in the same extra inning and still lost.
2)
I will always have a soft spot for ’70s SS Marty Perez, who tossed me my first Major League baseball. The Braves’ Marty Perez Era? Not as much…
BTW… thanks, D-Backs & Athletics. The A’s just completed a sweep of the Mets in Flushing (& finished their NYC-only road-trip 5-1 w/ 3 shutouts. Hmmm.)
Would love to see a dominant Sale tonight… and, of course, at least 8 HRs.
Payamps is making 2.25 million, so he will get more rope than a guy making the minimum.
Surprised that Perez got the axe today. Pretty sure a pitching hungry team will claim him or trade for him. I know the Braves needed another reliever today. I guess they figured the next time through the rotation they have an off day so they don’t need a 5th starter. And the next time they need one they will call on Fuentes, since Strider needs a few rehab starts.
Stay hot, Mauricio… before you remember what’s on the back of your baseball card.
I tell you that I did not believe in Smith (over Gamel) but I believe now. Thanks, Dom, for that 2-run HR.
On the other hand, if they DFA Payamps, no one is likely to pick up $2M.
I know the season is still young but one of the biggest differences I see this year compared to last year is that our bench seems ready to play and they are excited to be useful members of the team. They may be a little more talented than last year, but it’s funny how actually using your bench players in meaningful ways actually makes them want to play harder. Who knows, we may even have less injuries.
Good obervation, guys arent riding the pine for superlong stretches, they actually get chances to contribute.
Pump up that Pythag, boys
Recap in the morning.
Nice to have guys like Dom Smith & Mauricio Dubón raking like mad while RAJ & Riley are still waking up.
I just hope that guys like Dubon and Smith can be hot when Acuna and Riley are not and vice versa and Baldwin can fill the other gaps. Worst thing has been when the whole team is hot or cold at the same time.
With regards to last night’s game (in spite of the desire to go 162-0) even the best teams are likely to lose 50-60 games.
Recapped.