Jair Jurrjens

Jair Jurrjens Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

“Tell your statistics to shut up.” — Charlie Brown

I don’t want to believe the statistics. What they tell me is that Jurrjens’ 2.60 ERA last year is unsustainable, that he didn’t “really” pitch any better than he did in 2008, that he was just lucky. And that he could pitch just as well in 2010 and see his ERA go up a run just like it went down a run last year.

But that 2.60 ERA looks awfully nice.

It’s not an unearned/earned thing like I sometimes harp on, as he had all of one fewer unearned run in 2009. Jurrjens’ main peripheral stats last year were just about the same as in 2008. His strikeout rate went from 6.6 per nine to 6.4, his walk rate from 3.3 to 3.1, his home run rate from 0.5 to 0.6. The variance is so small that it’s likely just random. The exception is his hit rate; it went from 9.0 to 7.8. Normally, I’d say that’s just luck, but I don’t want to. You should recall that I am the person who talked himself into thinking that [NAME REDACTED] could continue to pitch well because he knew how to get out of jams even though I knew perfectly well that his statistics couldn’t maintain that performance.

Interestingly, Jurrjens’ ERA luck didn’t translate to wins. He went from 13-10 to 14-10. That is also just one of those things. He tied for fourth in the league in quality start percentage, the team just didn’t hit when he pitched… Controlled the running game much better, going from allowing 28 stolen bases in 31 attempts to 14 in 21. This doesn’t account for much of the ERA difference, but it did help.

93 thoughts on “Jair Jurrjens”

  1. Boy, Mac, you are going to have certain people–whose name I shall not mention-all over you, questioning your sanity and intelligence because everyone (with any brains)knows that JJ is an “ace” because he knows how to pitch. :) It just sabergeeks that spend their time in their mother’s basement looking at numbers rather than “observing” that think JJ is not as good as he pitched last year.

  2. from the last thread –

    per Coach – From 1991-2005 the Braves averaged 179 HR’s as a team.

    From 2006-2009 they averaged 169 HR’s as a team.

    From 1991-2005 the Braves averaged 105 stolen bases.

    From 2006-2009 they averaged 58 stolen bases.

    I’ll leave you folks to figure out which of these two stats is overrated.”…..

    well explain to us how Tampa Bay didnt do se well last year? they hit 199HR’s and had 194SB’s. Meanwhile the Yanks won the big prize with 244HR’s and 111SB’s. I bet Joe is sitting in his office right now just worried to death about how much faster TB is than the Yanks

    But your right, HR’s are so overrated. They kill rallies also.

  3. btw, just so everyone will know, there were 10 teams with more SB’s than the Yanks last season, but not 1 team was even within 20Hr’s of the Yanks 244HR’s. Maybe Im missing something, but apparently scoring runs is more important than SB’s.

  4. I’m just wondering how anyone with sense can value an extra base over scoring (at minimum) one run.

  5. #2 and #3 I still haven’t kicked my inexplicable desire to read the inane, but I have successfully suppressed my need to respond. Of course if y’all are doing it just to bait him to get a funny thread started, I’m all eyes.

  6. 2, comparing one season’s results to the fourteen I mentioned? And I thought I was good at cherry picking.

    That’s right Mac, you tell’em like it is!

    So what if Jurrjens had 25 quality starts and 26 starts where he gave up 2 earned runs or less last season. It was ALL PURE LUCK I tell ya!

    His best pitch is his change up for God sake. So JJ changes speeds and locates to the corners, big deal! His fastball ain’t all that great and that 1.76 ERA in his last ten starts was a fluke.

    I agree with Mac, Jurrjens is doomed to failure. Better trade him right now while his value is sky high. Now I’m gonna go take a flying leap…right of my roof and prove that I really am Superman!

  7. Maybe I missed it.
    Was Coach staring a discussion of the Braves’ recent lack of team speed or baserunning ability?
    Because, please, there’s been a ton of stuff written on the value (or lack thereof) of stealing bases.

  8. I suspect I have the same motivation as everyone else here and that’s to see the Braves win. Oh, and to have Mets fans banned from the blog as soon as they appear.

  9. JC’ed from the previous –

    So SB correlates with team success. Novel theory – I’ll look forward to your corroborating examples and analysis of league trends that supports this threadbare assertion.

    Meanwhile, 1991 – 2005, SS majority starts had two syllables or less, made playoffs. 2006 – present, 3 syllable SS starter = no playoffs. That’s why we should have traded Escobar.

    edit – “And I thought I was good at cherry picking.”

    That sort of about sums it up for you, doesn’t it?

  10. It’s really confusing to figure out what the heck is going on on these threads when I refuse to read Coach’s posts. Once again, if he’s bothering you, you can just ignore him.

    I keep checking my phone and the computer all the time to see if the Braves signed Damon. That may be testament to how boring sports are right now, but at this point, I just have a “whatever” attitude towards the pickup. If they have money to spend, and it’s going to go to waste if they don’t, then they might as well pick him up.

  11. Rob, Im under the impression that our offer was nothing more than a Boras negotiation tactic. He wanted an offer and Wren made one that had a very slim chance of getting accepted. Boras will get what he wants from the tigers and Wren spiked the fans interest level since we havent done anything since the Hinske signing. Ive didnt believe, but I do now, that Wren was very serious about being done after adding Glaus and Hinske.

    Here’s something else for everyone, since 2000, the team winning the world series has averaged finishing 8th in slg%, 10th in HR, and 12th in SB

  12. Obviously JJ is a nice piece to have in the rotation. And he’s young to boot. What is the chance that his perepherals are settling down to a sustainable level and that last year wasn’t a fluke?

    I’m not sabermetrician, but until I see JJ sustaining last year’s stats, I gotta believe he’s going to regress toward the mean that his minor league stats tell us to expect. (and I’d take those stats in a heartbeat – even if they aren’t a 2.60 ERA).

  13. There’s a whole bunch of teams out there that would love to have JJ. Just be glad the Braves have him.

  14. Well, I imagine the Royals don’t really want him now that they have Professor Farnsworth moving into the rotation.

  15. Continuing on my Frank Thomas retrospective, here’s the 1989 draft –

    1- Orioles – Ben McDonald
    2- Braves – Tyler Houston
    3- Mariners – Roger Salkeld
    4- Phillies – Jeff Jackson
    5- Rangers – Donald Harris
    6- Cardinals – Paul Coleman
    7- White Sox – Frank Thomas
    8- Cubs – Earl Cunningham
    9- Angels – Kyle Abbott
    10- Expos – Charles Johnson

    Good god, can you imagine the 90’s Braves with Frank instead of Bream/McGriff/Galarraga?

  16. I am curious if anybody who is “Deep SABR” knows how to find how Maddux FIP was at his peak. I think it was probably above actual significantly. The one thing I remember is that for about 4 years at his peak (say 92-96) he had a BAPIP of roughly .230.

    So, to the questioning crowd, it is POSSIBLE that Jair has some unusual ability to control balls in play, but don’t count on it. It is kind of a once or twice a generation kind of thing.

  17. This is seat-of-the-pants, but it always seems to me that JJ pitches in rhythm with the game he’s in.

    In other words, if the opposing pitcher is mowing us down, JJ responds in kind. If we score a few runs, he’s less surgical.

    Simplistic? Well, sure – it’s me, isn’t it? But the fact that we scored so few runs for him last year just might explain the statistical anomaly.

  18. The relationship between Scott Boras and Frank Wren was summed up nicely in Van Halen’s “Janie’s Crying”.

  19. The two things Jair Jurrjens was much better at in 2009 than 2008: timing and allowing hits. When randomness and defense are the two things you got better at, you didn’t really get any better.

  20. WTF? (#21)

    “With Matt Diaz and Omar Infante ahead of him as possible right fielders, the Braves won’t rush him, but he’s too good to hold back for long.”

  21. Wow. To this day, it amazes me to look at Greg Maddux’s stat lines. They just don’t look real. I can’t believe I actually witnessed most of that.

  22. Yeah, JJ forgot that his team is supposed to score more runs than the other team. It’s a bad thing for a baseball player to forget.

    I don’t think you can argue that pitchers have NO ability to control what happens when the ball is hit. If you throw the ball right down the middle, chances are it’s going to be drilled and if you jam a hitter, chances are he won’t hit the ball very far and the odds of getting an out are better. But some of those balls will become hits regardless so the fewer balls in play, the better.

  23. Mac, I thought Coach was down to his last straw on personal attacks before getting the ban hammer?

  24. Well it’s officially snowy here in downtown Atlanta. About 2 inches and still coming down.

  25. Is this brilliant or sick?

    You know the current Dr. Pepper commercials using Kiss? How about Dr. Pepper trotting out Jack Kevorkian to say:

    “Trust me. I’m a doctor.”

  26. Why would they want to do that?

    One of the main reasons Texas is considering the Big Ten is academics, so I don’t see the point in making what would basically be a lateral move in going to the SEC.

    It wouldn’t absolutely shock me if UT went to the Big Ten and OU and A&M wound up in the SEC though.

  27. Twelve’s plenty, IMO.

    However, back in ’91 when the league did expand, I would’ve rather brought in FSU & Miami than South Carolina & Arkansas.

  28. 39, does democracy offend you too? How about free speech or the 1st amendment? The fact is I attacked no one, named no one and maybe you need to grow a pair.

    The fact is, the vast majority of the people who espouse their opinions in this and many other blogs are amateur’s who know very little concerning the inner workings of the game of baseball.

    If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. If you disagree, don’t whine about it, keep scrolling and keep it real. OK?

  29. Isn’t this an indictment of our educational institutions in general? I put it to you, Coach – isn’t this an indictment of our entire American society? Well, you can do whatever you want to us, but we’re not going to sit here and listen to you badmouth the United States of America. Gentlemen!

  30. I think the DK’s have been more openly seditious, but point taken.

  31. I keep hoping Coach is a regular poster on here whose in disguise just to screw with everybody.

    It pretty much has to be, right? That’s the only thing that makes sense.

    ZIPS is giving Jair’s K rate a nice bump this year which would make the ERA sustainable. That would be nice. Of course ZIPS has his top comparables as Maddux, Isringhausen, Stieb which is kind of nutty.

  32. i find it funny that someone uses “espouse” in a sentence, then follows it up with the plural form of “amateur’s”.

  33. His IP doesn’t match up to anyone’s as I recall – he’s unfortunately one of a kind.

  34. “Democracy is the worst form of government mankind has tried, except for all the others.”

    -Winston Churchill

    (May be slightly paraphrased.)

  35. Does Vegas have prop bets for baseball? For example:

    Derek Lowe’s ERA: (+-) 4.00

    Number of games Chipper plays: (+-) 130

    Number of Starts for Melky: (+-) 100

    Number of times hankonly takes Lord’s name in vain when Bobby starts Melky over Diaz even though Matt wouldn’t like that: (+-) 100

    You know, those kind of bets …

  36. Catching up to this thread–it really reads to me like February without any real Braves’ news. After all, the Damon sweepstakes can only keep us captivated for so long….

    #43 + #45–Regarding the possible expansion of the SEC, I would have brought in FSU and South Carolina (I am not sure Miami would have joined) rather than Arkansas. However, what I find a bit sad and what I miss (even as an SEC fan) was the SWC. The Southwest Conference had its glory days and it made geographic sense.

    I suppose if we have Arkansas we can have Texas and Texas A&M–but the conference would find its identity changing….

  37. @66:

    He went over a wall and straight into a steel support structure. I can’t believe nobody could see that coming. Sad, really.

  38. S.E.I.R.A., V.O.R.P., W.A.R…….HAHAHAHA is all I can say. No seriously, some people take themselves far to seriously.

  39. Statistics are useful. You should buttress your sports arguments with the most indicative ones available. As statistics become increasingly intricate, however, they are overtaking the sports themselves in public consciousness. Those that fetishize stats cast down proclamations from concocted ivory towers impervious to human ingenuity and interaction. They are making sports unenjoyable for others.

    Statistics are great. Love them. Bet based on them. Write treatises about them. It’s productive discourse. But, remember it’s only one view. If everything could be determined by statistics, there would be no reason to watch sports.

  40. ‘Number of times hankonly takes Lord’s name in vain when Bobby starts Melky over Diaz even though Matt wouldn’t like that: (+-) 100’

    Questions Bobby’s parentage, eating habits, intelligence, and Oedipus tendencies.

  41. I’ve seen it mentioned that the Braves offer to Damon was just a carrot for fans or a favor to Boras, and that Boras was just using other teams to get more money out of the Tigers. I’m beginning to wonder if its just the opposite.

    It just doesn’t make sense for the Tigers to sign Damon when they traded Granderson to the Yankees. Generally speaking, the Braves make the most sense for Damon (outside of what the statistics may say about his individual performance). And the sheer fact that the Braves have not come out and said that they were not interested in Damon or that they did not offer him a contract speaks volumes. They may have overpaid for Lowe, but the way the organization has operated in the past indicates that they have no desire to be a Boras pawn just for good PR.

    I’m not saying the Braves should sign Damon, I’m just beginning to think that they are close to signing him and all of the Tigers/White Sox noise is a Boras creation to get as much as possible out of the Braves.

  42. if it was boras noise, it would have been shot down by now. its been 3 days. i think it’s legit.

  43. My take is that there are at least two teams interested in Damon (Braves and Tigers… ChiSox sounds like they’re willing to bring him aboard cheap but not really looking to spend) and that Boars is trying to get them to increase their offers so as to improve his client’s financial status.

    Pretty straight-forward, really….

  44. Coach, they goo they just recently extracted from my head has more sense than you. Thank you guys, made it through ok, but I still feel like I’m in a fog….is it opening day yet?

  45. Those that fetishize stats cast down proclamations from concocted ivory towers impervious to human ingenuity and interaction.

    That’s pretty much the opposite of what goes on.

  46. The seeming pessimism pervading this and many other blogosphere’s as pertains to the fate of the 2010 Braves isn’t shared by myself. Which feels all wrong just to make that statement.

    I’m usually the negative nabob spouting nonsensical reasons as to why my Braves will ultimately fail. My gut feeling this time is the total opposite.

    As I have said many times before. On paper our Bravos are a much improved squad….on paper. And like my peers I believe that health is the only real issue concerning this veteran and talented laden baseball team.

    I’ll apply the old K.I.S.S principle (keep it simple stupid) learned many years ago in the military. Baseball boils down to four basic components: Pitching, defense, power (hitting) and base running (speed). Why these four you ask? Because little leaguers, pony league players, high school jocks, college level and pro’s…..

    Throw the ball (pitching), catch the ball (defense), hit the ball (power) and running the bases (speed) are the cut and dried core of the game which never changes at any level.

    Our 2010 Braves have three of the four nailed down, whereas last season they had pitching and crap for much of the season before Wren retooled his offense, and they started scoring. Unfortunately the damage had already been done and the deficit was too much for them to overcome.

    Wren retooled his bullpen with proven veteran’s and kept his rotation intact. Added the big right handed bat needed in Troy Glaus while improving his outfield depth and versatility. The bench is deep and the catching corp. remains strong. No, Cox won’t allow this team to run much but man is this team going to surprise fans and bloggers alike. I won’t be among the surprised :)

  47. I got to agree with Coach, in that the Braves are much improved. But, there are a LOT of health concerns – Chipper, Hudson, Wagner, and Glaus among the biggest.

    But there are signs of hope for this year and beyond, what with Hanson, Heyward, and Freeman either up or soon to be up with the big club.

    I’m looking forward to seeing how the team does this year.

  48. Comparing Wagner and Hudson to the hitters isn’t quite right. TJ surgery is about as automatic as things get. Saito and by far the biggest health concern on the pitching side. (Well, unless you want to start talking about things like young pitchers (Hanson and Jurrjens both) and high inning counts.)

  49. Got bored and started looking at Glavine’s stats. Did you know that in his first time in the majors he went 2-4 with a 5.54 ERA. And then 21 years later in his final time in the majors he went 2-4 with a 5.54 ERA. Thought that was pretty interesting.

  50. I’ll agree that our team, especially offensively, is better than the group we had for the first half of 2009.

  51. Speaking of the Winter Olympics, I will be there tomorrow.

    Anybody have some Vancouver (or Whistler) tips?

  52. From this

    “Frank Wren just can’t stop himself from self destructing and Bobby Cox is his own worst enemy.”

    to this

    “Wren retooled his bullpen with proven veteran’s and kept his rotation intact. Added the big right handed bat needed in Troy Glaus while improving his outfield depth and versatility. The bench is deep and the catching corp. remains strong. No, Cox won’t allow this team to run much but man is this team going to surprise fans and bloggers alike. I won’t be among the surprised”

    Nothing like having it both ways.

  53. The first comment was concerning Johnny Damon which I totally disagreed with.

    I’m on board with the rest.

    Got anymore childish brilliance for us spike?

  54. Parish,
    You’re gonna see the most beautiful city in North America.

    Only spent a day there, but I did also make it over to Victoria on Vancouver Island. Pretty spectacular taking a little airplane over there, too.

  55. Thanks ububba. As you can see we are pretty excited about going.

    We have thought about going over to Victoria, but I am not sure if we can fit it in.

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