The controversial trade shouldn’t overshadow that Renteria is a useful player; he will probably be better in 2006 than Betemit would have been, and there’s every chance that he’ll be the best shortstop in the National League, as he has been occasionally in the past. It’s not exactly a strong crop… Renteria was getting paid by the Red Sox basically for what he did in 2002-03, when he was superb, a .300 hitter with good power, speed, and some walks, plus the Gold Glove each of those years. He’s not really that good, but he’s a good player and a good hitter for a shortstop. You don’t want him in a key offensive role, though.
Renteria came up with the Marlins when he was still very young, listed at 20 in 1996 (and he might have actually been 19). He hit .309/.358/.399 and finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting to Todd Hollandworth. (He should have finished second to Jason Kendall.) He backslid after that, then got dumped on the Cardinals during the 1998-99 offseason in one of the last stages of the Great Fire Sale. With the Cards he started hitting for a little more power, but was still hitting only in the .270 range, limiting his value because he doesn’t walk a whole lot. Finally, in 2002-03, he put it together, hitting .305/.364/.439 and .330/.394/.480. In 2004 with the Cards and 2005 with the Red Sox, he was basically back to his normal level, and those two years look fluky. Got blamed for the Red Sox not winning the division and they were happy to dump him, picking up Andy Marte in the process; the Braves probably could have gotten him for less but not with the Sox throwing in $11 million.
Hits into a lot of double plays, and doesn’t run particularly well anymore. Miscast as a top of the order hitter, because he doesn’t walk a lot, but doesn’t really fit in the middle because of the DPs and the only midrange power. Will probably hit second, better suited for seventh or eighth… Nine homers from 100 on his career (last year was the first time since 1999 he didn’t hit double digits — he had eight) and four SB from 250. 1595 hits through Age 29, which is a lot for a shortstop — Jeter had 1546 at the same age. He’s got a reasonable shot at 3000, but I doubt he’ll get there, because he lacks the broad-based offensive skills to keep playing regularly after he can’t play shortstop anymore. His most-similar batter through Age 29 is Alan Trammell, as it’s been since he was 22, though Trammell’s numbers are more impressive in his offensive context.
Nice piece – keep up the good work.
I must say I don’t mind Renteria as much as some. Marte didn’t impress me when he came up and if you look at some of the contracts handed out to shortstops over the last few years you could argue the Braves got a great deal with Renteria. I guess what it will come down to is how good will Marte be. If he is an MVP type player this move won’t look so smart!
Eddie could probably stand to lose about 10 pounds from his playing weight last year. He doesn’t have enough pop in his bat to justify carrying all that bulk (unlike, say, Andruw, whose ass is roughly the size of Jupiter and can get fatter for all I care as long as he keeps up the jacks).
I predict .285/.340/.410 with better defense than last year but worse than Furcal.
I like him batting second. In a down year last season, he still had 172 hits. He struck out 100 times–not great–but I wonder how many came as he adjusted to the American League, facing new pitchers and more off-speed junk. If somebody knows, please tell us.
I think it’s clear that if somebody gets on ahead of him he’ll be a better hitter and you have to like his doubles totals last season, although they may be Fenway adjusted.
We just neeed somebody shrewd and pesky to lead off.
Marcus; if you think you’re Joe Morgan, you’re gonna play 4 years before you catch on. But if you think you’re Molitor, you can play 15 and be known as the best Braves second baseman, maybe ever.
You’ll go home rich either way, I guess.
I consider Renteria and Furcal equal players. I just hated giving up Marte to get him. I have rather the Braves paid $9 million more to Furcal over the next three years and keep Marte. Marte at $3 million a year isn’t bad.
I think that success in 2006 will be determined by pitching. If the rotation stays healthy then they will be about the same team as last year. But, I’m most worried about the pen. Losing Farnsworth was really big in terms of creating any certainty. It could get ugly, and I would not like to be Roger McDowell if that happens.
I would rather have another bat with some pop than going after anotehr leadoff guy (unless it is Coco Crisp)
Great analysis Mac. I predict Renteria will achieve close to his career average in terms of ops and slg for this coming season, which is not great but not bad either.
I also think moving Marcus to leadoff will actually help him because he will not be asked to bunt anymore and not be distracted by Furcal’s ability to steal bases when Furcal was on-base.
Also, an interesting interview with Glavine is posted by the Metsblog. The following is the link:
http://www.metsblog.com/blog/_archives/2006/1/9/1632881.html
I’m sure nobody cares, but Todd Hollandsworthless signed with the Indians. Renteria was better in 1996.
If anyone is interested, and my advance apologies for the crushing wall of text, here are Theo Epstein’s explanation of the Renteria trade:
“I think, on the mental side, he had to make an adjustment the way a lot of players make an adjustment going from the National League to the American League and from a mid market to a big market. I think he did make that adjustment throughout the course of the year,” Epstein said. “I think that would have been fine in the long run. For me, the big issue was, for whatever reason, he physically wasn’t the same player. I don’t think he was hurt, but just watching him play every day, that was not the Edgar Renteria that we saw [in the National League]. His arm was a little short last year compared to what it was in the past. His range was short, his mobility. He looked like he had a hard time bending over at times. I felt bad for him. He just wasn’t able to go out and do the same things consistently that he had in the past.
“That was going to be tough, to have someone, if he didn’t bounce back physically … everyone gets old at a different point — I’m not saying he did — I still think there’s a good chance he’ll bounce back. … But avoiding risk that you’re going to have someone athletically that might not be up to snuff in the middle of the infield, if you can avoid that risk and at the same time turn it into one of the best prospects in the game, that’s certainly a great deal, and I applaud these guys. But I’ll take the responsibility.
“Sometimes you can go through the right process and have the right scouts and ask the right questions and get the right answer and think you’ve found the right fit and sometimes it just doesn’t work out. When you’re signing free agents, it’s dangerous. There aren’t too many 26-year-old free agents. Most of them are 30-year-old players. You can sign a contract, and that player might not show up, certainly throughout the length of the contract. I think knowing when to cut your losses and move on is a sign of a smart organization. But it made a ton of sense for John Schuerholz and the Braves, and they’re getting a guy who has had success in the past and has already said he’s worked harder than ever before this offseason.”
And that should be “here IS Theo Epstein’s explanation,” I originally put “comments” and forgot to change the verb.
I’m anal like that 😉
Smoltz out of the World Baseball Classic
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5234336
In case you are interested, Bryan Smith over at the Baseball Analysts has started his roundup of what he considers the top 75 minor league prospects. Yesterday was the honorable mention list (Elvis Andrus and Eric Campbell made the cut), today 51 – 75 (Chuck James checks in at 70). Link:http://baseballanalysts.com
Yet another post, but Furcal is having arthroscopic knee surgery. I bet it happened in that Cubs game over the summer.
I maybe oversensitive because I’m overweight but I think that was the most weasly way I’ve ever heard someone call a ballplayer fat and out-of-shape. Thanks, Wonderboy!
Let’s see what a real management team can do to motivate him! I’m now officially on the ER bandwagon.
Less than an hour til HOF nominees announced. Any bets on who’s in – I think Sutter will be the only one. Of course it certainly will have nothing to do with what he did in a Braves uniform.
The long-standing groundswell of support for Blyleven seems to have taken hold among the general sportswriting populace this year — I hope he makes it. Here are my predictions:
IN
Sutter 80%
Gossage 77%
Blyleven 76%
OUT
Rice 64%
Dawson 63%
One final prediction: Among those who get any votes at all, Gary Gaetti will come in last with 2.
I think Sutter should have to wear a Braves cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. At least until we’re finished paying him.
I predict Sutter and Goose, with Rice barely out and Dawson close behind.
Report: Sutter gets into the Hall
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5237032
Oh well, so the third best pitcher on the ballot is the only one to get in.
Dale Murphy got 56 votes. That’s absurd, ridiculous, and offensive.
What the hell are they thinking? How could Steve Garvey get two and a half times the votes of Dale Murphy? It’s not like Los Angeles gives a shit about their baseball.
I really want to punch a member or two of the BBWAA right now.
Kirk, Thank you for the link. An interesting list–I cannot help but think that Max Ramirez should make the Honourable Mention list. I hope that they have sold James short at #70.