Going into a new season, a lazy sportswriter looks at approaching performance milestones. Lazy bloggers do the same thing, but with research. The two biggest are 3,000 hits and 300 wins. The current leaders, Freddie Freeman and Justin Verlander, are not going to achieve their goals this season. Freddie is 569 hits away and and Justin is 34 wins away. Even if we add in playoff performances (an extra 79 hits for Freddie and 17 wins for Justin) they aren’t going to make it, although I guess a case (a bad one) could be made for Verlander, but they don’t count. But will they make it?
Verlander
Justin Verlander turns 43 next week. Pitchers have won 34 games after that birthday. Actually five pitchers have: Phil Niekro (78), Jamie Moyer (64), Jack Quinn (63), Hoyt Wilhelm (36) and Nolan Ryan (35). Niekro, Wilhelm and Quinn don’t count. Ryan just squeaked by. You’re essentially betting that Justin Verlander can become a junk pitcher, stay healthy, and pitch seven inning games. It’s not happening. And he’s the only guy under current pitching rules who has even got a shot. Barring a change in the definition of a winning pitcher, I’m reasonably certain we’ll never see a 300 game winner again.
By the way, if we were to redefine the winning pitcher as any pitcher who leaves with a lead that the team doesn’t relinquish, I think we’ll have no shortage of 300 game winners. Of course, we’ll have to go back and recalculate wins earned under the old rules, but since good pitchers rarely left early in the old days, I don’t think the numbers would change much. But that’s another post for another day.
Freeman
Freddie turned 36 in September. It’s somewhat harder to hit now than it used to be, but nowhere near as hard as it is to win a game compared to what it used to be. But Freddie’s got a long way to go. Even so, there are a lot of MLB players who got more than 600 hits after their 36th birthday: 66 of them. But a lot of guys fell short.
Here are the numbers, only for players who got over 2000 hits in their careers, for hits after age 36: The first column is all players; the second is players born after 1960, attempting to adjust for the modern age.
| All Players | Born After 1960 | |
| <100 | 37 | 9 |
| 100-199 | 43 | 15 |
| 200-299 | 29 | 10 |
| 300-399 | 36 | 18 |
| 400-499 | 24 | 9 |
| 500-599 | 19 | 6 |
| 600-699 | 18 | 5 |
| 700+ | 41 | 25 |
I’d call it a tossup. I wouldn’t be surprised either way. Note that some of the guys who had a lot of hits after age 36 also had more than Freddie before 36, like Pete Rose and Tony Gwynn.
That said, while no one else is particularly close to 3000 hits, I could easily see more of them, unlike 300 game winners. José Altuve is only 50 hits behind Freddie, and they’re the same age. Younger players with a chance include Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Bryce Harper. I don’t like Mookie Betts‘ chances, but odder things have happened. Including Freddie, I think at least one of these guys will make it.
I dunno but I’m rooting for Freddie.
As to Rob’s point about our organizational philosophy, I agree. Even though I want to sign Giolito and would’ve been glad to sign Bassitt, all the energy has been devoted to drafting and developing pitchers so we don’t have to spend ungodly money signing free agent pitchers or even extending our own (Fried).
Whether we are actually good at doing that is an open question, and I am on the record saying it’s a risky if not outright wrong-headed strategy. But if you’re going to do it, it makes sense to actually give these kids a chance to pitch, and we do have several interesting starters who are ready for a chance. It sure seems like teams that have drafted position talent recently (like the Red Sox) and acquired pitching (like the Red Sox) are in a better position to contend right now than we are but I guess the formal projections still favor our roster.
If 4/5 of your rotation is Schwellenbach, Strider, Waldrep, and Smith-Shawver, then I’d say they’re really good at it. If 3/4 of those guys can stay healthy, I’d say they’re pretty good at it. Unfortunately, 3/4 of those guys have not proven they can stay healthy.
They do deserve some credit for Grant Holmes, as well. He figured it out late, but he figured it out on their watch. If I gotta hear that we whiffed on Griffin Cannings nice 12 start run for the Mets because we had him for a week, then the Braves get credit for Holmes.
I suppose there’s a scenario where 5 “homegrown” starters are healthy and available towards the end of the year: Schwellenbach, Strider, Waldrep, Smith-Shawver, and Holmes. So, I dunno, that’s pretty good.
I agree that is a nice collection of pitchers. The reason I am more guarded with my assessment is ultimately results matter. One of the reasons drafting pitching is risky is injury. So if you get 4-5 really nice anrms and half can’t stay in the rotation what have you got? So I would say we appear to be good at the identifying talent part. Maybe even very good at that. But what about developing those guys and keeping them healthy? Maybe the health is not our fault, just bad luck, but that still calls the whole strategy into question. It says maybe you wait until guys are 26-28 so you know whose arm will hold up. You draft hitting and sign those guys.
I am reasonably optimistic all considered but we need to hold a rotation together into the playoffs before I will approve of the strategy.
https://x.com/mlbbowman/status/2022355450180902998?s=20
I’ve seen enough defensive highlights that I’m really good with Dubon manning the fort for 5 weeks.
https://x.com/MrChadBishop/status/2022323491358355707?s=20
I think the new AJC writer is drunk. He thinks AJSS will be back in June or July? No way.
June or July in the Florida Complex League, maybe. He had surgery in early June 2025.
The problem with the Braves starting rotation is this: Bryce Elder is the most dependable starter on the roster. If that fact becomes apparent to the casual fan, write the epitaph.
I really don’t wanna be this guy, but I really think that we don’t truly know who Bryce Elder is. He just has this odd profile of “he’s extremely consistently effective unless he’s absolutely hot garbage” that just screams that there could be the natural consistency that develops with age.
His last 7 starts last year: averaged over 6 innings per start with a 2.82 ERA.
Oh my gosh, I’m defending Bryce Elder. You either die a hero, or live long enough to see yourself become the villain.
I’m one of the best relievers in baseball & I just signed a contract worth $20M… how can I screw this up completely?
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/guardians-emmanuel-clase-gambling-scheme-playoff-game/
I mean, who’s gonna notice $450k on individual-prop-bet winnings based on one pitch, almost exclusively from the same pitcher?
Hanlon’s Razor says I should assume he’s as stupid as he seems, but damn, this seems like he’s been blackmailed.
Thanks as always, JF, for the data-based analysis–and for everything else you are doing to keep this site going.
I’m fascinated by the topic Rob and Stampton have been discussing, i.e., the wisdom of trying to develop a starting rotation from talented prospects. This franchise has been doing this for a while. The rebuild that began over a decade ago was similarly focused on acquiring and developing as many young pitchers as you can in the hopes that a few of them make it and don’t get injured.
The results then were mixed at best. I was a firm believer in this strategy at the time. (after all, the memory of Glavine, Smoltz, and Avery coming up together and dominating the league was still relatively fresh).
The rotation of the Rome Braves in 2016 was one for the ages. Here is the line for the four starters in the playoffs:
Mike Soroka 14 ⅔ IP, 14 H, 5 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K, 0.61 ERA
Kolby Allard 12 IP, 9 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 10 K, 0.00 ERA
Max Fried 14 ⅔ IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 24 K, 1.23 ERA
Touki Toussaint 8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 1.13 ERA
Fried was 22 and the other three were still teenagers. Soroka and Allard had been drafted out of high school just the year before. And more were coming: in the first two rounds of the 2016 draft, the Braves drafted Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, Kylle Muller, and Bryse Wilson. The next year Kyle Wright was the top draftee. What an embarrassment of riches in young pitchers! I let myself believe we were looking at another era for the Braves like the 1990’s.
You know how this one turned out. Fried has been one of the best starters of his generation. But for each of the rest, either injuries cut short a promising start or else they just didn’t pan out. Soroka still breaks my heart. Before the first achilles tear he was brilliant. Wright and Anderson had some excellent moments before injuries ruined them.
So I’m inclined to agree with Stampton that developing position players as prospects and acquiring more proven pitchers may be a better strategy. Even using the Braves rebuild as an example, the position players in the minor leagues a decade ago (Acuna, Riley, Swanson, Albies) have provided a lot more value than the pitchers and are the main reason for the run of division titles beginning in 2018.
But I am an eternal optimist. Going with pitching prospects is the strategy they have chosen, so I choose to believe we will get lucky with this group. Strider, Schwelly, AJ S-S, and Waldrep have each shown the potential to be front line starters if healthy. And among the prospects Ritchie and Caminiti in particular look great to me. With a little luck, this could be a terrific pitching staff.
To be clear, I may be an optimist, but I’m not crazy. Given the recent injuries to basically all the current starters, they really need more depth. I’d feel much better with another veteran starting pitcher. With Bassitt and Gallen gone, looks like Giolito is the best bet among free agents.
Well said professor. If memory serves, Patrick Weigel was on that team and he had as high a ceiling as any of them.
I am also optimistic, particularly about Caminiti. As much as I don’t think drafting pitching should be your philosophy, you do have to draft some no matter what and when you do, you want it to be great value for the spot. Caminiti was the best first round value in recent memory to me. A guy who could’ve easily been top 10 with bloodlines, great athlete, and a lefty to boot. But a pitcher’s health is a fickle mistress, so fingers crossed.
On Valentine’s Day we’ll have no talk of fickle mistresses, Stampton. On Valentine’s Day, mistresses are very loyal.
JF, I am not good looking enough to have any real mistresses, but my wife is luckily not fickle at all. She still really likes me, and my kids do too. And they all love each other. I am the luckiest man alive.
Bowman says that Grant Holmes looks great and is pitching 95 like he was pre-injury.
On the other hand, Reynaldo Lopez was sitting 91-92 and was throwing a lot of breaking balls during BP. He still has time during spring to ramp up and get more velocity, but that’s concerning.
I agree with JonathanF that some hitters will continue to accumulate 3000 hits, including some who are active now. But you know who won’t? The very best hitters of our era. Juan Soto won’t, for the same reason that the greatest hitters of all time didn’t get to 3000. Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Barry Bonds all fell short because like Soto they drew over 100 bases on balls per season. Mike Trout won’t be healthy enough to do it, but he wouldn’t have anyway–he’s another 100 walks/season guy when healthy.
Don’t get me wrong–you’ve got to be great, and consistently great for a long time, to reach 3000 hits. I’d like to think RAJ could get there, but he’s not even at 1000 yet, and given his injuries it’s highly unlikely he could get to 3000.
New post