If you checked the box score in the middle innings, you would’ve seen the Braves down 10-4 after Bryce Elder laid an egg, the second straight night that the Chicago White Sox absolutely murdered our starting pitching. And you might have concluded that you were safe to turn the game off.
As another sportin’ gentleman once observed: it ain’t necessarily so.
Michael Harris II continues to be unconscious. He went 1-5 with a two-run homer tonight, which lowered his August batting average below .400; his OPS for the month is 1.145 as he has seven homers and 18 RBI in 18 games. Drake Baldwin had three RBIs of his own as he continues to mount a strong case for Rookie of the Year, though the kid in Milwaukee is making it difficult as his team is running away with the division.
Remarkably, after the Braves let up five in the 5th and two more in the 7th, the hitters mounted a hell of a counterpunch, with five of their own in the 7th and the decisive final two in the 8th. It was the classic thing we’ve watched this team do in years past, absolutely annihilating the other team’s bullpen. After they relieved Shane Smith, the floodgates opened a crack when Profar reached on an error. Then Olson and Acuña hit consecutive singles.
Harris grounded out, but they brought in another reliever who promptly walked Ozuna to load the bases and Baldwin to score a run. Then Albies hit a two-run single and Alvarez got an RBI grounder. New guy Vidal Brujan started to make a good impression with a pinch single, but then he immediately got picked off to end the inning.
It was 10-9, and the June Braves might have left it there. But the August Braves weren’t done. The next inning, Profar led off once more, and he again reached safely, this time on a walk. (The Braves drew six on the night.) Olson doubled him to third, and the Sox walked Acuña to get to Harris.
At that point, something infuriating happened. Does anyone know whether this was planned or impromptu? Michael Harris, the hottest hitter on the planet, squared to bunt, and because it’s something he never does, he bunted into a force out and they threw out Profar at home. Fortunately, Baldwin picked him up, driving in the tying and go-ahead runs with a two-out single.
Iglesias nailed down the save, with Harris making a truly nifty diving catch for the third out. Iggy’s scoreless in eight innings this month, with nine strikeouts and no walks.
For some reason, nearly the whole team was out of whack for much of the year, and they’re all getting back to their usual selves at the same time. It’s a shame it took this long, but it’s nice to see they’re still in there. Once we reach the winter, we’ll have plenty to address as we try to figure out how to get this team back to the playoffs. But for right now, they’re playing winning baseball. Ain’t it fun?
Yes. It is fun. Getting to the playoffs is fun, but this is fun too.
The last two weeks has led to an interesting pattern, though, that I think I’m seeing. The Braves have really serious problems with almost every starter, but are death to almost every reliever. Is this random, or an actual thing? If a team really had the secret towards hammering relief pitchers, but no clue how to get to starters, they would nonetheless be virtual locks in the current age in every game, simply by wearing out the starters and waiting.
A+ Porgy and Bess reference.
I’ll admit it, I stopped following after they fell behind 10-4. I was pleasantly surprised to see we came back to win. Our offense has turned up, finally. Now we just need them to be ready when the season starts next year.
The pitching on the other hand, that will require AA to fix.
The fix will be praying for health and the continued success of Waldrep. I see a relief pitcher signing or two. Wouldn’t surprise me to see Iglesias back because he probably comes at a steep discount and is better than his numbers.
Potentially healthy pitchers to start next year (I know we haven’t signed Wentz for next year but we probably should if he keeps it up )
Sale
Strider
Schwellenbach
Lopez
Waldrep
Wentz
Holmes
Ready eventually
Smith-Shawver
JR Ritchie (not injured but should be ready for Atlanta at some point next year)
For obvious reasons I’m not including Elder but that is a pretty good list to choose from. I think the key will be Strider’s re-emergence or lack thereof. Probably we should look for 1 starter but I don’t see a lot of work to do for AA.
Not having Elder start a game next season is probably as strong a predictor of a playoff berth as any.
Gotta figure Lopez is going to the pen if his shoulder ever gets better. (shoulder injuries are scary)
I wouldn’t be surprised if Lopez never pitches for us again.
Bow reported that Michael said he was trying to get the ball up the first base line to tie the game, and even if he got out, they would have 2nd and 3rd and 1 out. He also said it went a lot better in his head than it did on the field, lol.
He really wasn’t too far from getting it past the pitcher or up the line more. I love how we’ve gone from fully supporting Harris bunting because it would at least be better than a strikeout on a ball in the dirt to him being so valuable at the plate he can’t possibly consider sacrifice bunting. All in a span of a month.
No, he still sucks, and if he wants to drop one down in the right spot, that’s ok.
What worries me is that management will count on second half performance rather than first half when planning for next year. We should EXPECT MHII to be bad in the first half and that the offense will stutter. We need more hitting and pitching that stays healthy.
I don’t want to hear anyone say “if he only plays the whole year like the second half” for anyone. If we assume all the players will play next year like they did the first half, it will inform us better on what we need to do in the offseason. Also ASSUME that some pitchers will get injured and don’t just say “if they all stay healthy”.
Roger, remember when you were gobsmacked that anyone would question the health of the rotation AA built less than 2 years ago? Now you’re preemptively blustering at anyone who might defend it.
Stampton, I feel like it was pretty hard to predict the complete rotation collapse the Braves had this year. Roger’s overall point was probably what my point was this past offseason: if you have 8 or 9 decent candidates for the rotation, what more can you do? Guys aren’t going to sign with you to compete for a spot. And like the point I made later in that thread, reliable starters are statistically rare. Last year, 46 guys made 30 starts, and that’s out of 150 rotation spots. So if you have 3-4 of the guys that you think can be amongst the 45 or so who make 30 starts in a given year, you’re going to use the last 1-2 spots on a tryout and revolving door of 4-5 candidates.
Damn, Stampton keeps receipts. Haha. Nothing gets past him.
Wow, that was a year and a half ago. I think at the time we might have assumed one or two serious injuries but now we’ve lost the whole rotation and Joe Jimenez. Now we know that AJSS will have TJsurgery and Lopez has been injured twice in two years. We thought Strider would be better (and he may be next year) and didn’t expect Holmes to get injured too. For a team that has spent so much draft capital on pitching you would think it wouldn’t be so (like I did last year) but we also have to change expectations when the environment changes.
In tend to agree with TD and the list he put up above is pretty good. And Rob is right that no one wants to sign for just a competition. I would not be unhappy if AA pulled another Sale out of his hat. But what I was trying to get at is we need guys like Ritchie and Fuentes and Burkehalter and Lara to be ready to go and not assume they won’t be needed. No more Feddes or Carrascos.
BTW, for 2024 I think I was pretty spot on – the rotation was good and Sale won the Cy Young. 2025 is different.
Yeah, Atlanta was #1 in SP fWAR last year, so AA’s handling of the rotation two offseasons ago was hardly a problem.
Not sure what happened with the audio delay with Rick. Frenchy is loving it without being able to say why on air. Great stuff.
I realize our pitchers did great for most of the regular season. My point was that when Sale is your big acquisition there is a good chance he isn’t pitching a playoff game for you and he still hasn’t. Same concern with Lopez. I liked either acquisition in a vacuum, but neither had a track record of being the type of horse you want. This pitching staff has been put together to demonstrate the cleverness of AA when the smart money was to pay the ace you already had and sign a guy who could give you innings. Next year will be a repeat of hoping for health from guys who haven’t been healthy. It’s not impossible to predict injuries. Chris Sale, for example, is a very good bet to not finish the season.
Recapped
Huh, I didn’t realise that Holmes and Schwellenbach would be good to go at the start of next year. Given what’s happened to Strider after coming back from injury, I’m not sure you can expect to much from them. I agree that Lopez seems like a good bullpen candidate, although I’d try him as a starter first and see if his shoulder can hold up.
I did just have a look at the SP free agents, and yeah. Not much to like. Maybe Gallen could be had for cheap, given he’s sporting a 5+ ERA. But I’d really like to get another top of the rotation starter, just for depth purposes.
Onto tonights game, of course it ends 1-0 after like a squillion runs have been scored. Waldrep is looking like a real find. I wonder if he’s on any innings limit this year or next?