The Marlins
Going into tonight’s game in Miami, the Braves, at 34-39, were 5 games ahead of the Marlins and 1-1 on the season. The Marlins are now in their 33rd of season in baseball. They have won (including the postseason) 2356 games and lost 2769. The Braves over that same period are 2930-2309. In the 32 completed seasons, the Braves have had a better record in 27 of them. The Marlins had better records in 2008-9 and 2015-7. The Braves have had better records head-to-head with the Marlins 25 times, all but 1996-7, 2001, 2003, 2009, and 2014 with a 6-6 tie in 2000.
In short, the Marlins (Eric Gregg aside) have been a reliable contributor to Braves success.
Where We Are
In the 162 game era (excluding 1994, 1995 and 2020) 91 teams were 34-39. Of those teams, the best subsequent record was the 2004 Braves at 62-27 for a total 96 regular season wins. The 2003 World Champion Marlins got to 91 wins and the 2018 Rays, the 2022 Mariners and the 1975 Rangers all got to 90 wins. So that’s an empirical probability of 5/92, or about 5%. 6 of the 92 made the playoffs, although the 1975 and 1976 Orioles would have made the postseason under current postseason rules. The worst subsequent record to make the playoffs was the 84 win 2008 Dodgers, but they were a dicision winner in a pretty bad division.
The Game
Neither team was completely serious about tonight’s game. The Braves brought up Dider Fuentes, a 20 year old with a bright promise, a name that reminds us geezers of an old Braves catcher, and a complete lack of experience. He got some people ut, but not enough of them. (To be honest, I wasn’t home yet to see any of his performance, but he clearly has promise. And I promise not to say anything more about him for a while.) He exited after 5 innings having given up 4 runs, the big blow a 3 run homer by Agustin Ramirez.
And now the Marlins pitcher: look, I have to write this stuff, but having a pitcher named Janson Junk is really unfair. Just assume I wrote three paragraphs of bad puns about his name. My heart just isn’t in it. It goes without saying that he gave up 1 run in 5 innings of work. The only surprising thing is that he didn’t hold the Braves scoreless.
Tomorrow
Atlanta will apparently take tomorrow’s game seriously: Grant Holmes will pitch against Eury Perez, who will be making his third start of the year.
Sometimes you have to tip your cap. Last night I tipped the barkeep, which is what I call my wife when she is pouring bourbon. It made the game bearable for 8 innings. It is such a chore to watch this team
I could only force myself to watch though seven innings, and much of that was not bearable. Needed more bourbon.
Kelenic is only 25 years old, and if we traded him at the deadline for anything of use, he would be in his fourth organization by age 25. Oooof.
I want to feel sorry for this guy, but I don’t think he’s that structurally different from the younger version of himself where he turned down tens of millions of dollars because he thought that he was even better than that.
He’s headed for a non-tender for sure.
To be fair, when you’re 22 or whatever and your agent says “nah man you’d be a fool to take this when you can get way more in a few years” it’s hard not to listen to the experienced mature professional. I don’t know that’s what happened, but unless I hear he rejected the advice of his agent I’m going to assume they were on the same page.
As I’ve said before, the incentives for the agent are different than those for the player because the agent doesn’t have to pin his hopes on the trajectory of a single player. Maximizing high side risk across a pool of players makes sense for the agent while minimizing low side risk makes more sense for the individual player.
Yeah and who knows, if he’d figured it out by now, maybe we’re all talking about how he was smart to Bet on Himself & reading DOB articles about how that competitiveness & drive has been integral to his success, or whatever. Sometimes, it just doesn’t work out.
And either way, to Stampton’s point, if I’d had to make a massive financial decision re: my future in my early twenties, it certainly wouldn’t have been a good one.
The Braves need to win some games on the road. They can beat anyone at home. In years past they have been a god road team but this year they are miserable.
Also, I think there’s an inevitable letdown after a big series win and Snit is lining his pitchers up for Mets/Phillies and he took a chance on Fuentes to do it. Regardless of Fuentes, though, 2 runs will not get anything done.
Fuentes pitched pretty well. Sequencing and location need work. That high four seamer on the edge to a righty is a bad pitch even if he can dot the corner because it breaks back a touch due to his arm slot and the batter can get his arms extended on it. That pitch needs to be high and in or elevated enough that they can’t do anything with it
Sale to the IL, for heaven’s sake.
Fortunately, seems like it’s just cracked ribs, and I’d think that should heal relatively quickly and easily. Nobody make him laugh in the meantime.
Sounds like this may take a little longer than a couple of weeks from what I’ve been reading unfortunately. What a blow!
This puts calling up a 20-year-old kiddo into better context. I hope he gets a few more kicks at the can before going back to Gwinnett.
Pitching depth is burnt. Beyond Fuentes, it’s Waldrep, Ian Anderson, and Davis Daniel. I noticed that Jackson Stephens pitching four innings in Gwinnett yesterday, which is probably no coincidence. A tough climb just got tougher.
Yeah that seems like 6-8 weeks to heal, and then a month or so to ramp back up.
Oh no.
Sale has a bizarre history of skeletal injuries as I remember. Maybe it’s because of his gangly frame, but I’m starting to wonder if he has some rare bone condition like a very mild case of osteogenesis imperfecta
We are gonna need more than three runs.
Was looking forward to seeing Sale pitch in Flushing this week.
Man, this team cannot catch a break.
And Drake seals the deal. These guys are no Diamondbacks.
Game thread posted