As is my occasional wont, I wrote a book-length comment on Ryan’s post, so I thought I’d expand it into a fuller piece.

The rotation

We’ve got a few certainties and a few more question marks.

Sale and Lopez, if healthy, are good anchors for the top of the rotation, and Schwellenbach appears to be a terrific mid-rotation starter already, and it’s possible he could get even better. I like Grant Holmes an awful lot but I don’t know about his ability to go more than five innings. But the Braves have probably earned the benefit of the doubt here.

For Max, I’d really love it if we tried something like three years, $90 million. That wouldn’t prevent him from getting another free agent contract in a few years, and it would capitalize on the fact that our window is now.

Beyond them – based on his outlook as of the draft, Hurston Waldrep seemed poised to be an asset relatively soon, but his injury has elongated the timeline, and I’d rather not count on him soon. But I’d also rather not think of him as a trade asset, as he’s near the low of his value. Same for AJSS – even if you shrug off Smith-Shawver’s last start, he’s coming off an injury, needs another pitch, and just doesn’t have much of a track record of success above the low minors. I’d rather not sell low on the guy.

As to Anderson, Ynoa, Elder… I would love for Anderson and Ynoa to live up to the promise they showed a few years ago, and they’ll almost certainly have spot start opportunities aplenty, but they need to grab the brass ring. Elder, on the other hand, the ship has sailed. He’s an emergency starter and a garbage time relief guy – give him Uncle Jesse’s spot in the bullpen whenever Jesse’s ready to be a pitching coach.

Infield

Shortstop: I’d also rather not sell low on Nacho, as he seems near ready to take over the position. I (correctly) thought he wasn’t ready in mid-2024, but he had a great year at Triple-A and won’t turn 22 till April. I’m not ready to hand the position to him yet but I’d like to keep him in the organization as our lack of positional depth killed us this year.

Second: Obviously, the bigger question for all of us is really around Albies, as his defense has collapsed and his offense hugely regressed. He finally abandoned switch-hitting towards the end of the season, and had a magical Game 1 of the doubleheader against the Mets, but outside of that, bright spots were relatively few in his 2024 campaign. This feels like a watershed moment for his career: though he’s only 27, he’s already played 871 games in the majors, and 7619 1/3 defensive innings at second base. It’s possible that all that wear and tear has begun to take its toll and age his legs early, as certainly happened to his countryman, Andruw Jones. I’d love to see him play until he’s 40, but that won’t happen without making some major changes.

Catcher: About Drake Baldwin: the thing is, as I was explaining to a colleague of mine, the Braves have basically traded every single major catching prospect they’ve had since Brian McCann: Saltalamacchia, Flowers, Max Ramirez, Langeliers, Contreras, and probably more I’m forgetting. (Just looked at more drafts. Victor Caratini! Brett Cumberland! I’m sure they would’ve traded Lucas Herbert, Drew Lugbauer, and Braeden Schlehuber if they could hit!)

Outside of cup-of-coffee backups like Chadwick Tromp and Clint Sammons, the only other guy they kept for even a little while was Evan Gattis. And he hit so well that they tried to make him a left fielder.

Catchers have almost exclusively been treated as trade fodder. It’s a strategy, but I think it’s one that bears reconsidering in the coming years. We’re clearly stuck with Murphy for a while, but again, the process that led us to him is the same process that led us to trade all of our other catching prospects.

Outfield and DH

DH: Ozuna clearly seems like the odd man out as there’s really no way to keep both him and Soler, and while Soler is a salary dump, Ozuna is probably movable at his salary. (I still would prefer Ozuna off the team, due to the DUI and DV history, as much as his teammates seem to like him and the Braves press seem content to move on from his off-field issues.)

OF: AA’s latest interview seemed to suggest the team viewed Kelenic as a utility outfielder, which sounds about right to me. Kelenic’s biggest asset to the team is his defensive range, just as range is Acuña’s biggest liability, so I think Acuña should move to left and Kelenic can platoon in right while filling in at the other positions, spelling Acuña in left and Michael Harris in center every so often, as I am a huge believer in resting the regulars.

Overall

The key questions for the offseason, really, are to look at the guys we already have penciled in to each position, and figure out how we can get them back to their 50th-percentile outcome, since the entire lineup outside of Ozuna had injury-riddled off years.

Can Acuña, Albies, Arcia, Harris, Murphy, Olson, and Riley all return to their historic norms? I think it’s worth hiring all the specialized hitting coaches, sports psychologists, personal trainers, and whatever else it takes to get them there. No current hole in the lineup matters more than getting our existing core back to their established level of performance.