Don’t underestimate the significance of this one game. Last night, a whole bunch of good things happened. One data point is not a trend, but if you’re looking for reasons to clear away the doooooom and start feeling a bit better about the world, last night had them in spades.
- Shabbos Schwellenbach shoved.
- Drake Baldwin went 3-4 and has a team-leading .939 OPS.
- Ozzie Albies had his first multihit game in almost two weeks.
- The offense produced eleven hits and drew two walks – including one by Michael Harris! – and scored in four different innings.
- Dylan Lee and Pierce Johnson cleaned up in the 8th and 9th innings. They’re both quietly having very good years.
- El De La Sabana – jonrón! Ronald started a game in the Florida Complex League and hit a homer to center; he’ll go to Triple-A tomorrow.
The Braves finally reached the .500 mark on their fifth attempt, and did so in a refreshingly relaxed fashion: while the Nats scored single runs in the first and fourth, he held them there, and after the Braves tied it in the fourth on Drake Baldwin’s wall-scraper, they scored unanswered individual runs in three of the next four innings, as Raisel Iglesias got the night off.
I still remember a comment that Mac Thomason made in the mid-2000s that identified Brian McCann as the most important player in the organization, as a catcher who had jumped from Double-A to the majors at age 21 and held his own offensively with a .278/.345/.400 batting line and a poised defensive approach. Drake Baldwin is 24, but I’m getting similar vibes. His power is clearly already pretty good, but it’s his plate approach by which I’m finding myself inordinately impressed. From the moment he joined the team he had the best offensive approach of any position player on the team. He got robbed of multiple homers in the opening week of the season, but he’s not getting cheated now.
Ronald Acuna, Jr. is the best player on the team, but Drake Baldwin is the best position player prospect we’ve graduated since Ronald, and I think he’s nearly as important to this team’s future success as McCann was to that team’s. There’s a logjam at catcher right now, as Murphy is being paid to be a starter and Baldwin is too good to be a backup. For 2025, that can remain a good problem to have, but within the next 12 months, that problem will need to be resolved, or it will resolve itself.
(That said, to respond to Rob’s comment on the last thread, I don’t think the Braves should move Baldwin to the outfield.
Putting a catcher in the outfield occasionally works – Bryce Harper, Wil Myers, Jayson Werth, Dale Murphy – but you generally want to do it in the minors, and you want to do it because the guy can’t defend well enough to stay behind the dish and you want to get his bat in the lineup as soon as possible. Drake Baldwin is here in the majors today and he can credibly play the hardest defensive position on the diamond. Moving Baldwin to the outfield comes with significant risks – you don’t want him getting a leg injury, like Chipper Jones did shortly after moving out to left, and you don’t want to compromise his development by asking him to learn a new position for the first time in the majors.
The more recent catcher-outfielders I can recall the Braves employing are Ryan Doumit and Eli Marrero, and generously, neither of them was starting catcher material. Update: also Evan Gattis, though he was basically a DH.
Obviously, I didn’t want the Braves to trade Contreras either, and they didn’t listen to me, so it’s certainly possible that they’ll try this, as it would solve their huge outfield black hole, but it’s not a risk I’d want them to take.)

Letting Ozuna walk solves the problem. Baldwin and Murphy can be your DH in 2026.
I’m kind of against putting him out in left field, mainly because there’s an injury risk to playing an unknown position. You just saw a left-fielder fracture his forearm in that left-field corner a couple of weeks ago.
Agreed. It’s a perfect platoon because it rests both players the perfect amount. I would love to think we’d spend Ozuna’s money improving the roster because that’s what a normal good team would do, but we will probably pocket the savings and maybe sign one mid-tier reliever.
Liberty will use the savings to buy another office building.
How soon we forget El Oso Blanco.
Woof, good point!
7 out of the last 10. It sure doesn’t feel like it though! But I’ll take it, with an extra side of scattered and smothered.
We got some holes on this team, for sure. But we’ll see where we are come end of May. And really curious how Strider and Ronald fit in and what they’ll add.
It didn’t take long for Ronald to solve the Florida Complex League.
I didn’t even know it was a thing. Sounds fun if you’re a local — free admission to games.
I guess it wasn’t that complex after all.
We are a .600 team over the last 35 games. Unfortunately the first 7 count and they’re probably some indication of how well we match up with elite teams.
It would be interesting if there were an opportunity to trade Ozuna to get Drake more ABs. Problem is Ozuna is one of our few guys who gets on base at a high rate and you probably can’t get anything more than 2 B prospects for him.
Not to be snarky, but I think the only thing we learned with the 0-7 start is that the crappiest version of this team is no much for the Dodgers and Padres.
Next year. This team could a whole lot worse than Eli White as SuperU and Alex Verdugo as 4th OF. If we could upgrade at MI and get some of our pitching prospects to arrive then we’d be a great team again. Burkhalter could be a closer…..
Dumping Ozuna and Iglesias could free up a whole bunch of money.
Baldwin should get as many MLB at bats as possible this year. Let pitchers adjust and see how he responds. If he has similar numbers at the end of the year, I think the team needs to trade Murphy and keep Baldwin. Murphy probably doesn’t return great prospects, but I suspect there are teams that would swap major league talent with similar contracts.
Nick Allen is positively Belliardian with the bat. A player from a bygone era.
I just looked up his Baseball Reference page, and, man, he spent parts of 17 seasons in the big leagues with a cumulative 0.530 OPS. A player nowadays like that would never find MLB work for almost two decades.
I wanted to reply “Nick Allen isn’t that old!” before I figured it out…
Allen is still on pace for a 2-3 fWAR season even hitting like Belliard.
I think there were two things.
First, it was a different era, one in which players didn’t face quite the same expectations of across-the-board effectiveness. Royce Clayton and Rey Ordonez wouldn’t have gotten the same number of PA as they did, either, as is clear from the disappearance of Arcia. Especially before defensive metrics, the baseline expectation of the skills you needed to stick in the majors were looser.
Second, Bobby liked him. Keith Lockhart couldn’t hit, either. He was just one of Bobby’s guys.
That was a terrible play, and I’m not sure whose fault it is. 3rd base coach? Runner going home? I dunno. In real time I thought he shouldn’t try for home.
I wonder how Mac would have reacted to Jeff Francoeur giving hitting tips to Matt Olson on the air. I’m sure it would have been comedy gold.
What are the odds of the ball bouncing straight up off the top of the wall like that instead of bouncing into the seats?
Fortunately Fairchild made it irrelevant.
We wrote Bryce Elder off, but in the words of Geno Smith, he ain’t write back.
I am writing Bummer off (again? Still?). Dude throws straight bp
What if – I know this is crazy, but – what if we just fired Aaron Bummer into the sun and all held hands and agreed never to speak of it again?
He would use his gaudy peripherals to circumnavigate the sun and find himself another extension.
Someone who believed in his peripherals would rescue him.
To paraphrase the film adaptation of “Moneyball” … “If he’s a good pitcher, why doesn’t he pitch good?”
This is a clown show tonight. A Riley boot costs us runs and then an error on De Los Santos that should have been on Olson cost us the lead.
It’s amazing we have nobody better at AAA then Bummer or De Los Santos
We have met our match in these Washington Nats
De Los Santos has been pretty okay for us this year. Not his fault that he’s as high up the depth chart as he is – he’s basically Cristhian Martinez. But Aaron Bummer’s continued presence on the active roster is indefensible.
Murphy is one of the best at acting like he’s trying to get out of the way of a pitch without actually trying to get out of the way of a pitch.
Considering that he’s already broken a rib and flirted with breaking some other stuff, I would appreciate it if he’d actually get out of the way!
Catchers, man. What ya gonna do?
That was a game we should not have lost.
That was a bad loss…maybe as bad as any this season with a game we seemed to have in hand but Bummer and his top notch peripherals helped toss it away with the help of some poor defense.
You should be able to get 5 bad losses per year, and last night was one of them.
Random:
If Kyle Schwarber gets to 500 home runs, should he be a Hall of Famer? Crazy to think of him as a Hall of Famer. But he might very well get to 500. He has 299 home runs right now after hitting his 15th home run, and he’s 32 years old:
32: 26 more home runs (325) I just wanted a round number
33: 35 home runs (360)
34: 30 home runs (390)
35: 25 home runs (415)
36: 25 home runs (440)
37: 20 home runs (460)
38: 20 home runs (480)
39: 15 home runs (495)
40: 5 home runs (500)
He’s a DH, so it’s not crazy to think he can be passable for the next several years.
I definitely didn’t think I’d be mathing out Schwarber hitting 500 home runs.
Not sure I’d bet on Schwarber to age gracefully enough to get there; if he ages like Nelson Cruz, he could definitely get there, but most guys who look like him – big slow power hitters – slow down well before they get to 40. Adam Dunn was out of the league before turning 35!
Schwarber has had a brilliant run in the last few years, and it’s kind of fun to think about the kind of round numbers a guy like him could reach.
Speaking of guys aging well, I think it’s finally time to say that AA letting Freeman walk over the 6th year is becoming one of the worst decisions in Atlanta GM history. In year 4 of his Dodgers contract, he’s hitting .362/.430/.698 (1.128), leading the league in BA, SLG, and OPS. Freddie at $27M over the next 3 seasons is just so much better than Olson at $22M for the next 5 seasons. Man, we can talk about all the red on Olson’s StatCast all we want, but at the end of the day, he has a .779 OPS in 871 PAs dating back to last year. That’s no small sample. Shea Langeliers, who Olson was traded for, was a 2.9 WAR player last year, on pace for another good year this year. And while Cristian Pache, who also went over in the deal, has not been good for anyone, that was still some prospect capital that could have been spent elsewhere if we simply re-signed Freddie. So if you include Langeliers’ value plus the delta between Freddie and Olson at this point (around 2 WAR per year), then it essentially means that AA gave up 5 WAR per year to save $5M per year. Not smart.
And of course, hindsight is 20/20. But AA keeps doing this. He lost out on relievers because he wouldn’t pay. I didn’t think we necessarily needed a SP this offseason, but he could have gotten a guy like Quintana for $5M. I do, however, fully reserve the right to change my mind if we take back a ton of salary at the deadline to upgrade the team significantly. If we have $15-20M hard dollars to spend, that’s $40M in AAV that we could take back at the deadline. That would change A LOT, and I would shut up about AA.
Losing out on relievers because you stuck to your guns on $$ is going to be the right decision most of the time, given the extreme attrition rate of relievers.
But I agree wholeheartedly that the decision to let Freeman walk has been an unmitigated disaster.
Yeah, I bang this drum all the time, but to me it wasn’t so much about whether it was fiscally wise to give Freddie a 6th year. You had an all-time Braves great who was a culture builder and clubhouse leader and a total dog at the plate with the exact kind of approach that you want to instill in your hitters. He’s also a guy who played for a significant discount over a decade for us. Whether you squeeze positive value out of every single year of his career is just not that important to me. If the 6th year is a sticking point, you give it to him because of how much he means to the organization. It’s not like it was a 6th year at $40 million; it was a reasonable AAV. And none of that is to consider the most critical factor which is the opportunity cost of replacing an elite first baseman. No, I did not expect him to be even better after his departure, but I expected him to age well due to his tenacity and approach. To me, failing to keep Freddie was like missing a 6 inch putt on hole 18 for the Masters title because you wanted to try out a new club that was $50 cheaper.
If we’re being honest with ourselves, Olson’s great 2023 season was likely the byproduct of juiced balls. I also don’t think it helps that he plays every single game and that’s something the team should try to address in the offseason.
The numbers are absolutely damning. Olson isn’t remotely on the same level as Freeman:
I think Alex made a terrible mistake by not re-signing Freddie, but I also don’t think replacing Freddie with Olson makes this roster THAT much better. Our farm system would still be pretty bare; our bullpen would still be patched together; Ozzie would still be in decline; we’d still have poor-hitting shortstop; Michael Harris would still be swinging at balls headed toward the opposing dugout; we’d still have an injured Acuna; and we’d still have the same rotation.
I think this team would still be in a slight decline phase regardless of who is playing first. In my opinion, the team needs to stop trying to execute deals that perfectly achieve surplus value and start doing what needs to be done to acquire free agents. Is it really that big a deal if Tanner Scott is in the bullpen now but the last year of his contract is underwater? You can’t do that for every player, but Alex has an aversion to overpaying for anyone, regardless of how much they could help the current roster.
Alex is really following the John Schuerholz trajectory: inherit a great core, add quality pieces to it, win the World Series, and follow up moves are really, really questionable.
My recap of yesterday’s game is coming whether you want to read it or not. It will be another hour or so, though, thanks to technical and other difficulties. Warning–it won’t exactly brighten your day. But it will also serve as the game thread for the today’s afternoon game, in which the Braves will make it 3 of 4 from the Nationals.
Recap and game thread up, finally: https://bravesjournal.com/2025/05/15/wednesday-woes-nats-5-braves-4-and-thursday-game-thread-far-to-go-but-we-can-still-get-there/