The first big extended statistical post I wrote here was something called How Big is Home Field Advantage?, a five part series that I wrote for Alex over 10 years ago. I had a job, I had a wife, I had a gallbladder, so some things have changed. I had the same house and dog that I have now, so some things haven’t changed. My study back then was pretty inconclusive, and I still don’t understand why the home field advantage in baseball is so small.

But wait a minute — small? There will be a team playing tonight that is 3-2 at home and 2-11 away. That is, if you think it means anything, a whopping 45 percentage point difference. I am quite certain the real difference is not that big, but if it held up for a whole season the Braves would be a 100 loss team — 48 wins at home and 13 wins on the road. If anything close to that happened, the league would have to open investigations. In baseball history, the largest home/road differential ever observed was the 1949 Philadelphia Athletics, who were 56-17 at home and 27-36 on the road. That’s only a 35 percentage point difference. Moving closer to modern times, only Colorado has shown splits anywhere near this large, and we all know why in those pre-humidor days. The largest Atlanta split heretofore was 1980, when the Braves were a schizophrenic 50-30 at home and 31-50 on the road.

If indeed the 2025 Braves manage only 13 home wins, they’d have to win 77 at home to make 90 wins. That would allow them two home losses the rest of the year. Let’s go for it, starting tonight. With Bryce Elder on the mound, how could we do this? Well, we could hope the Twins start Chris Paddack, who despite his name, does not seem to be much of a workhorse… at least not since he came to the Twins 4 years ago. Since a really good rookie season in 2019, he has not had even a 1.0 WAR season and is net negative since then. This year he has a worse ERA than Elder, which is not something you want in your bio. On the other hand, he had a good outing against the Tigers last week, and Elder hasn’t had a good outing since July 30 last year. On the third hand, I don’t have to tell any of you what often happens when the struggling Braves hitters face a struggling opposing pitcher.

I’m not going to be able to see most of this game, so if anyone wants to volunteer to recap it who actually saw it, let me know. Otherwise, I just do what the Braves do… they can’t see the ball, and I can’t see the game. Oh, and it’s on AppleTV+ tonight. Make this a Good Friday.