Ramon, we hardly knew ye. The Braves non-tendered him shortly after the season ended, rewarding him for the best offensive performance of his major league career with a cold-eyed acknowledgment that he was never gonna do that again. Still, this is a retrospective, not a prospective, so it’s worth celebrating Laureano’s season, which however unrepeatable was nevertheless pretty great.
I do owe him a Coke and an apology. Despite his reputation and track record, his defense was less than sparkling in the early going, and by August I was calling for his release. Cooler heads prevailed, though, and in the last two months of the season he started nearly every night while hitting .311/.347/.522. He did it with a .389 BABIP, admittedly – plus a 4% walk rate that would’ve made Michael Harris blush – but he did it nevertheless, and his bat was one of the more important pieces of duct tape holding together our leaky offense during the stretch run.
Laureano’s often overachieved over the course of his career. He was originally a 16th-round draft pick by the Astros out of Northeastern Oklahoma A&M, a school for which he’s essentially their only noteworthy draftee. (The only other guy with a notable career is Jason Dickson, who was an All-Star as a rookie starting pitcher, but who blew out his shoulder shortly afterwards and was done after 397 innings pitched.)
While he was hitting .227 at Double-A, the Astros traded him to the A’s for Brandon Bailey, a live-armed pitching prospect who eventually threw a total of 7 1/3 innings in the majors. The A’s clearly helped Laureano develop, as he had a great half-year in Triple-A in 2018 then kept on hitting during his call-up. His next season was a full year of more of the same: a .356 wOBA with plus centerfield defense made him nearly a four-win player.
But he seemed to be seriously selling out for power, as his walk rate sharply fell from 9.1% to 5.6%, while his homers spiked up, setting a career high with 24; he never again hit more than 14. And while his walk rate went back up during the abbreviated season in 2020, it fell back to the 6-7% range for the rest of his career, while his slugging fell at the same time as his BABIP, which had been .354 his first two years, but was .287 for the following three years. And now that he’s 30, his defense has turned downward as well.
He was mired in the worst season of his career this past May, hitting .143 when the Guardians released him, and he had to accept a minor league deal from the Braves two days later. But after just a couple of weeks, Michael Harris suffered a hamstring strain and Laureano got his callup, becoming one of the Braves’ most important bench contributors and the latest example of Alex Anthopoulos’s wizardry with fourth outfielders.
At this stage of his career, Laureano’s starting days are likely behind him. He’s BABIP-dependent to a fault and his glove is merely adequate, but he’s still capable of helping a team that needs a warm body. I hope he continues to have many more productive years as a role player. He sure was great for us.

Bueller?
OK I’ll bite. Laureano may have just been lucky. But BABIP isn’t the whole story. It’s one thing if bleeders are dribbling through the infield. It’s another if line drives are screaming over the heads of shortstops and knocking gloves off first basemen. Laureano had one of his best career line drive percentages at 24% in 2024. It wasn’t without precedent for him. His first 2 years in the bigs, he had posted a 25% LD rate. His BABIP in those years were both over .340. What’s more, he had the lowest soft hit percentage of his career in 2024 of 11.5%.
This to me reflects a possible change in swing and approach, maybe a flattening of his swing plane. I hadn’t seen more than highlights of him before, so I have no eye test to go on. But it is entirely possible he figured something out–maybe a return to an early career approach, and I think he’s worth bringing back for cheap.
100% agreed. If you’re barreling it, you’re barreling it, and the LD rate reflects that. And sometimes you get hot and you’re hitting everything hard. Hey, maybe him flattening out his swing was basically the only thing Seitzer did right last year.
He had a strong year, but I think with that walk rate he needs to have either elite defense or power to be a good player long term…neither of which he has.
Ehire Adrianza retired after what I was surprised to see was a 12-year major league career. Braves fans will remember him for the 2-out PH double in 2021 NLCS G6 just before Rosario’s 3-run HR and the first name that looks like a dot.com personnel firm, but I think of him as someone with healthy work-life priorities. I believe he missed time at the start of 2021 to get his U.S. citizenship and part of the 2021 postseason for the birth of a child, and I read that he missed the WS-clinching game of the Giants in 2014 because of the birth of his first child. Seems like a marginal hitter might be reluctant to miss time regardless of what the union has negotiated, especially in the postseason, but good for him. After his age-29 season, his batting averages were .191, .247 (Atlanta 2021), .175, .000, and .192. I imagine he was a good teammate/clubhouse presence to have been able to stay in the league for 12 years.
Good for him. I’m amazed he hung around that long! He seemed so marginal. But have glove, will travel.
He was very marginal. He has a career 0.8 bWAR but hung around for 12 seasons. Made $9.5M in career earnings. I even got an alert on my phone from ESPN that he retired. I looked at my phone saying, “Who? Oh yeah, the guy that had a nice half season on the bench for us 3 seasons ago. Sweet.” Good for him, man.
If Hernandez is worth 3/$66, then you have to think Profar will sign for less, right? Profar wasn’t my first choice—he was so bad in 2023—but he would fill an obvious need for probably less than $20 million per year.
He has gone good year-bad year-good year-bad year from 2018 through 2024. It would be easy to chalk up one as a fluke, but I am concerned that inconsistent is who he is. Of course, if he could repeat 2024 for you, he is easily worth $20 million. On the plus side, it looks like something changed when he joined the Padres in 2023. His OBP instantly shot up to well above career norms and the .380 he posted last season was 50 points higher than his career average. His barrel rate almost doubled (4 to 7%) and his EV went up 5 mph. Those are massive increases. He had a similar distribution (LD/FB/GB). His take rate was about the same, but his chase rate went down about 10% (22.4% from 25%). It looks like that combined with a higher barrel percentage explains the change in success.
I always look for signs that a guy’s possible fluke season is actually a change in approach, and for Profar there are some signs that is the case.
I always look at pedigree, too. He was maybe the top prospect in baseball, before injuries derailed his career. What he did last year is exactly what everyone predicted he’d be capable of as a hitter. I can’t blame him for trying to maximize his payday, though. This may be the best chance he ever has to sign a nice multiyear deal.
Watching the videos of Jimmy Carter throwing out the first pitch in the 1995 World Series reminded me of Mike Mordecai, who caught that pitch.
Mike Mordecai played in MLB for 12 seasons, accumulated a -2.8 WAR, and earned $3.2M mostly making the league minimum. Obviously he stayed in the bigs because of his versatility and WAR is not capturing that value. I wondered how many players have accumulated negative career WAR recently, so I looked up career WAR since 2000. Only 2 had accumulated more negative WAR than Mike Mordecai, who obviously played the majority of his career before 2000. So then I began to wonder if it was more commonplace before 2000 to carry guys for long careers who had lots of negative career WAR. And wow, there were a lot more guys that accumulated a lot of negative WAR from 1980 to 2000. In fact, some guys produced -5-6 WAR for their careers. Andres Thomas, known to Braves fans, accumulated -4.6.
Here’s the list if you care to stroll down memory lane:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&pageitems=30&season1=1980&season=2000&pagenum=29
Great stuff. Mordecai also had a big role in game 6 of the infamous 2003 NLCS.
Here is one frequently mentioned on here and one of the worst big leaguers in history:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rockepa01.shtml
Though he was pre-1980, he would’ve been 2nd worst on that list. Unlike Mordecai who was more or less a replacement level utility guy over most of his lengthy career, Rocket had a short, atrocious career, through much of which he was a starter. Not sure I’ve seen a .366 OPS over 150 or more PA in a season. Tom Glavine had 19 seasons with 50 or more PA and had a higher OPS in all but 3 of them.
I assume that before Bill James, lots of baseball decisionmakers didn’t understand the value of MLB statistics, park effects, aging curves, or the value of minor league statistics and so had no idea what the true replacement level was and didn’t realize how many options there were to replace poor performers. Alfredo Griffin is the one who stands out for me, as he played 18 years, most of them as a starter, with 7300 PA and 3.1 career bWAR. He was an All-Star in a year with -2.5 bWAR. He had three years with more than 1 bWAR, one of which made him AL Rookie of the Year at age 21 with 2.5 WAR, and an out-of-character 3.5 WAR age-28 year with Oakland.
I assume that a lot of these guys played for bad teams whose GMs figured that they at least were known quantities and even if bad wouldn’t be as bad as some of the other options, or were backups for teams who had too many other problems to worry about their backups. I doubt the Big Red Machine was too concerned about Darrel Chaney being a replacement-level or slightly-worse backup for Dave Concepcion for 150-200 PA every year. They probably didn’t think he was going to see much time in the postseason anyway, though he did start in 1972 & 1973 and had 3 singles and 6 walks in 42 career postseason PA.
I know that, toward the end of a very weird season, Laureano helped mash us into the post-season. And thanks for that. However, I will always remember him for his Timmy Lupus imitation at the end of one particular Mets game last summer.
Was standing in the 300 level near an exit when he overran that 2-out/bottom-of-the-10th pop fly in the RF corner, ending the game. After the ball dropped, I think I was in the parking lot before the winning run scored.
It reminded me of something Ralph Kiner said about Dave Kingman after another outfield adventure: “Honestly, Kong needs a map & a flashlight to play RF.”
Thnx for the memories, Ramon.
https://x.com/baldheaded1der/status/1873812352929513559
Stove lit?
Update:
It’s lit!
https://x.com/baldheaded1der/status/1873817978116174273
So how much per year for Profar and how much we giving up for Bo Bichette?
Max Scherzer?
https://x.com/baldheaded1der/status/1874601101468549600
Scherzer is probably the guy Ryan mentioned with medical issues.
I trust Ryan’s info. Plans change and sometimes things fall through. I don’t remember the specific tweet/post, but in addition to the Riley news, I think Ryan also had info that Acuna’s meniscus (pre-ACL tear) was worse than initially reported.
https://x.com/b_outliers/status/1874663118200299871
I don’t really think 4/$60 is too much for one of the better relievers in the sport.
There are seven or eight teams that aren’t signing players or are in an obvious rebuild:
Miami Marlins
Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
Colorado Rockies
Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Angels
You can’t include Oakland in that group because they are signing free agents, but other teams like Seattle and Minnesota may be added depending on what happens in the next six weeks.
The overall point is more teams are trying to win and finding deals and market inefficiencies is just going to be harder and harder. If you want to win in this World Series window it’s going to cost more than ever.
I guess it could also be Verlander. Both he and Scherzer had some injuries last year.
If they’re truly looking at older pitchers I’d just bring Morton back. The Braves know his medicals and he’s more likely to be able to eat innings.
It would be awesome to see Scherzer in a Braves’ uniform. One of my all-time favorite non-Braves and I think he still has one more great postseason run left in him.
My guess is Tanner Scott. It makes the most sense.
–AA will pay free agent prices for relievers
–It’s the last year of Iglesias’ contract
–We desperately need left-handed velocity out of the bullpen
Ryan has eliminated a few options on Twitter, but not Scott.
You can live with some question marks in the rotation if you have an elite bullpen. I’d much rather acquire a proven starter, but if the team decides not to and allocates resources elsewhere, Holmes is capable of being a fifth starter. Additionally, Ian Anderson should at least be able to provide some innings.
Plus Ian is out of options so he will have to break spring with the team, be traded, be DFA, or on the IL.
Hard to post a 4 WAR season in 72 innings and he nearly did it two years in a row. I’m on board. There’s high variance with relievers but if you can really get 4 wins for say 16 million per season that is incredible value compared with starters where you get about 1.5 wins for that.
Happy new year to the lurking denizens of Braves Journal.
Hear, here!
New thread.