A lot of baseball players have broken hamate bones. Some of them, e.g. Mike Trout, have had some of theirs removed if shattered badly enough. On August 18th, Austin got hit in the wrist from a 97 mph fastball from Jack Kochanowicz and his season was over. Jack hit 18 guys in 167 1/3innings, although 102 of those of those were in AA for the Rocket City Trash Pandas. (Yes, this is a piece about Austin Riley, but if you can wedge in a reference to the Rocket City Trash Pandas you sort of have to.) In MLB, he hit 8 guys in 65 1/3. This is wild, but not crazy-wild; he’s barely in the top 50 for career HBP rate by active players with more than 10 career IP.
Up until then, though, Austin had been having his worst season at the plate since he learned how to bat in 2021. It wasn’t bad by any means: a 115 OPS+ with 19 homers in 110 games played. It was just lower than any of the three previous seasons. Some of this was clearly luck: it was the highest hard-hit rate of his career (52.7%) and exit velocity (93.3) combined with his highest propensity to use all fields. But it was lowest BABIP (.310) since he learned to hit. Mostly it can all be explained by a small decrease in power, so that a few homers became warning track balls – nothing really serious yet, as long as the wrist heals nicely.
Defensive metrics don’t like Austin Riley. They don’t hate him – they just rank him as a slightly below average third baseman. In all honesty, I’ve never studied defensive stats well enough to know whether they accurately reflect relevant comparisons. My own Ocular Assessment says he’s excellent on the slow roller in, slightly below average in range right and left and above-average in arm strength. As long as he hits, no one is going to complain about his defense.
He’s signed through 2032 with a team option for 2033. That’s a long time from now.
Nice write up.
https://x.com/reach_baseball/status/1870133187000610989
Pablo López isn’t elite, but he gives you stability, and you’d probably trust him to make a playoff start. He’s good, but not so good that you would have to include Drake Baldwin.
Pablo would be about the best you could hope for at this point. I love the guy and I think he still has a little upside (Cy potential). Good things can happen to pitchers at 28-30, especially those who miss bats. He would at the very least be what Charlie Morton was for us until 2024–a reliable #3-4 who you wouldn’t mind starting an important game.
The Phillies signed Max Kepler to a 1/10 deal. We could have done that.
Decent signing. Probably could have. I hope we have that $10 million earmarked for something else, but won’t be surprised if it’s earmarked for savings. Watch him hit 25 homers for the Phils.
I actually had inside information on this on Wednesday. I know Kepker turned down roughly equal offers from the Jays and Yankees.
For what it’s worth, Kepler and Kelenic have pretty similar 2025 projections on Fangraphs.
AVG OBP SLG wOBA xwOBA wRC+
.237 .306 .414 .311 98 Kelenic
.244 .313 .409 .315 101 Kepler
Kepler had a great 2023, but so did a lot of guys thanks to the crazy home run environment. He’s coming off injuries but before that, Kepler put up a 94 wRC+ in 2022 and 97 wRC+ in 2021, so you can’t just blame that for his poor 2024.
Hopefully AA has bigger plans for left field.
Rickey Henderson has died.
106 career fWAR, 1,406 stolen bases, career .401 OBP, 297 home runs, and a hell of a good time.
In a sport thousands of players have played, it’s really hard for a player to be truly unique. There’s always some guy that has a really similar profile. But Ricky was so unique that these were his most “similar” players according to B-Ref: Craig Biggio, Johnny Damon, Paul Molitor, and Lou Brock. Lol, none of those players are similar at all. 5th is Joe Morgan, and that’s probably the closest player. But there just wasn’t anyone like Rickey. Always wished he played for the Braves. RIP.
Damn, sad news. One of my favorite non-Braves.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6011626/2024/12/21/dodgers-teoscar-hernandez-alternatives/
“Hernández, 32, is seeking a three-year deal between $66 million and $72 million, according to a person briefed on the negotiations. The contract length does not appear to be a point of contention between the parties. The issue is money.”
He strikes out a lot but I’d personally do 3/$72 million. He can play the outfield this year and then he’s Ozuna’s replacement after 2025.
Only 65. Wow.
Three Rickey stories:
The first game I ever saw Rickey play in-person, it was at Yankee Stadium & it was a doozie. In 1990, the Yanks were a last-place club, while the A’s were in the midst of 3 consecutive pennants with Rickey in the middle of his MVP season. That year, the A’s won all 12 of their games vs. the Yanks & at one point had a 16-game winning streak vs. them. Yanks were bad & the A’s were one of the best clubs of the era.
In that Saturday game, late in the ’90 season, the Yanks led the A’s in the 8th inning by a run when Rickey hit a scorching HR over the LF wall near the foul pole to tie the game… and, as he did, he took his time getting around the bases & caught some boos. The A’s then rallied a bit more and took the lead.
In the 9th, Rickey came up again with a runner on. He promptly hit a ball so hard that it banged loudly off the facing of the upper deck & bounded back into LF. It was quite a shot. Of course, by the time everyone quit marveling at the HR & turned back to look at Rickey, he was only about 3 feet out of the batters box. He yanked on his shirt a few times, did a few skips and took about a half-hour to get around the bases, making a show of every foot tap on 1st, 2nd & 3rd… to a resounding cacophony of boos & jeers. He was like a pro-wrestling heel creating heat, driving the locals nuts, eating it up all the same. It was awesome. He obviously wanted to make sure everyone remembered that moment – and I certainly did.
Later, in 1999, when he was playing LF for the Mets, I was at a Braves game at Shea Stadium sitting down the LF line a couple of rows from the field. A Braves hitter blooped a single into left. The ball dropped in front of Rickey for a single & a runner went from 1st to 3rd. Rickey didn’t exactly break both legs to get to the ball, but he made sure he looked good fielding it & throwing it back into the infield. (Thanks, Rickey.) The Mets then changed pitchers & during the pitching change 2 loudmouth Mets fans started giving Rickey a hard time about the previous play.
Rickey wasn’t having it. He lit up & purposefully walked over to the stands & cussed these 2 Met mooks out like a Marine drill sergeant & he never stopped cussing a blue streak until he walked back to his position. When the 2 guys finally sat down & shut up, they looked thoroughly embarrassed because everyone in the section was laughing at them. Only Rickey could’ve done that & gotten away with it. And for a Braves fan who’d already heard quite enough from these people, it was plain hysterical.
Another time (2009 probably), I was headed to JFK airport for a January flight. I got there in record time & had 2 full hours to kill before boarding, so I sauntered over to one of JFK’s array of restaurants. I walked in & checked in w/ maître d’ who had me wait in this little area around a corner. I looked up and there was a well-dressed Rickey Henderson with a well-dressed woman waiting in the same area. Quite coincidentally, the day before he’d been elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame, so I looked at him, instinctively put out my hand and just said, “Congratulations.”
Like a lotta celebs who have that acute instinct about being in public & burdened by fans, he seemed to realize that I didn’t want anything else from him. He looked me in the eye, shook my hand, and said in that indelible, raspy Rickey voice: “Thank you, thank you very much.”
I remember thinking: “Wow, that was just like Elvis… perfect.”
You were one of a kind, Rickey.
Thanks, ububba, for sharing.
ububba always has the best anecdotes.
Great stuff, ububba.
Luzardo to the Phils. Don’t know enough about what they gave up but very nice acquisition, sadly. Wish we coulda done it.
Great stories, ububba.
I could see Acuna following the career path of Rickey, though like I said before, I definitely think there will be only one Rickey. But the similarities are already there: lead off, plate discipline, power, stolen bases, bravado, injuries. Acuna will just have more power and less SBs. And while it’s a tall order to ask anyone to play 25 big league seasons the way Rickey did, but Rickey only played over 150 games 4 times. From age 28 to 39 (the end of his time as a starter), he averaged 127 games played per year. Played in his last ASG at age 32. But he just kept stealing bases, kept working walks, and kept being fun as hell. I could see Acuna having a similar trajectory, and I hope Acuna can learn just enough English to be as hilarious as Rickey was.
What’s funny about the supposed John 3:16 quote from Rickey is that it’s probably not true. It just sounds like something Rickey would say. “I don’t wanna hear about John hitting .316. Rickey’s hitting .330,” or whatever the quote is. Love it.
And, of course, there’s: “Rickey don’t like it when Rickey can’t find Rickey’s limo.”
On Austin Riley: Another one of 2024’s strokes of bad luck. Profoundly weird year, for sure. Moving forward, glad we have him.
Buehler to the Red Sox for 1/21. That’s higher than I would have wanted to go.
But that’s gotta bring the price of Morton down, no? I continue to have no problems bringing Morton back on a $10M deal.
Yeah 10 million is fine for Morton. The difference with Buehler is real upside, but Morton is more likely to give you reliable mediocre innings. It’s going to be hard to feel optimistic about 2025 if we don’t spend even a little money. I keep telling myself AA is playing the long game and wanting to go for a big SS next offseason. Yeah, that’s the ticket
Right now, our biggest acquisitions are Bryan De La Cruz and the pitcher we got in the Rule V draft. And we lost Fried, Soler, TDA, and still may lose Minter and Morton. And we lost Jimenez for 2025. To this point, it’s inarguably a disasterous offseason. I know it’s not over yet, and it’s hard to believe that AA will do nothing at all.
I keep hearing that, but we still have $30M+ to spend and some expendable prospects to trade, and it’s not like they’re just going to not spend it.
At the end of the day, though, they think this is basically the same team that won 103 games in 2023. And if Atlanta was outside of the top 10 in payroll, I would be pissed. But they’re not. They’re spending money. They’re locking up almost all of their guys.
I still believe in Kelenic, I’d bring Morton back as 5th starter, and I’d like to keep a spot open for a starting pitching prospect. I really don’t hate this roster
Murphy
Olson
Albies
Arcia (with Nacho knocking on the door)
Riley
Kelenic (with De La Cruz being a legitimate option against LHP if Kelenic continues to struggle against LHP)
Harris
Acuna (De La Cruz until Acuna is healthy; no legit OF is going to sign with us to play for 2 months)
Ozuna
Tromp (perfectly good replacement for d’Arnaud, who looked cook in the last 2 months)
De La Cruz (Laureano)
White
I’d like to see us sign a legit backup middle INF or at least stash one more guy in AAA
Sale
Lopez
Schwellenbach
Strider
Morton
Holmes
ASS
Waldrep
Elder
Anderson
(The rotation is where I really think Atlanta has such a significant advantage over the rest of the league)
Iglesias
Bummer
Johnson
Lee
Whoever doesn’t get a spot in the rotation (Holmes?)
Two FA relievers
That’s a really good, deep roster. Who in our division is that deep?
Let’s do a package deal for Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward
I don’t think the Angels think Rengifo is a shortstop.
Don’t really think he is either, but I’m just in favor of adding versatile talent for recovery times and inevitable injuries.
If Buehler can get $21M plus incentives, then Morton is worth far more than $10M in the open market.
New thread.