Earl Weaver’s formula is hard to beat. Behind seven strong innings by Max Fried, who struck out a career high 13 Red Sox, and a tie breaking three run homer from Ozzie in the sixth, the Braves defeated the Red Sox 8-3 Tuesday night in Fenway.
Remember those first two starts by Max Fried back at the beginning of the season? That must have been someone else in a Varsity costume. Over his ten starts since, the real Max Fried has shown up. His ERA is 1.83 over his last ten starts. And he’s going deep into games–seems like he goes seven or more every time out. What’s more, he is a joy to watch, as he relies on six or seven pitches now, and is able to throw any of them at any time where he wants them. My favorite, though, will always be the knee-buckling Sandy Koufax curve.
[I shouldn’t have thought of Koufax and the Dodgers. I had vowed to myself not to mention that this is likely our last season to enjoy Max in a Braves uniform; I do try not to be negative. But last night’s game gave me an idea: do you suppose we could find that Max look-a-like who started those first games and somehow get the Dodgers to sign him instead of the real Fried? Then after they do that, AA swoops in and signs the real Varsity and gives him all the money. Get it done, AA. (and don’t share this scheme with the Dodgers, y’all)]
The offense really may be coming around. I don’t make predictions, but it’s hard to believe that June won’t be a better month for the hitters than that miserable May just past. So far, so good. The pitching and the defense are doing their part. If more of the hard hit balls that died on the track will leave the yard, this could yet be an Earl Weaver dream team. That’s “pitching, defense, and three run homers” for you youngsters who don’t remember the Earl of Baltimore.
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That’s pretty much all I have to say about last night’s game, since I didn’t actually see any of it. I’m at a conference and the dinner event was over just as the game ended. The conference is at the University of Notre Dame, and the dinner was in a skybox overlooking the football field. Hence, the photo of Touchdown Jesus above.
That has nothing to do with the Braves v. Red Sox, but of course I think about the Braves and baseball wherever I am and whatever I’m doing. So here is the link: Carl Yastrzemski was the best baseball player ever to come out of Notre Dame. He didn’t actually play for the Fighting Irish; he was on the team his freshman year, but that was when freshman were ineligible. Thanksgiving of his sophomore year he signed with the Red Sox, and the rest was history.
And what a history it was. Yaz played 23 seasons for the Red Sox, and accumulated 96.5 bWAR in that excellent career. He was one of the all-time greats—and inner circle hall of famer. But since this is a Braves blog (and I am who I am), it occurred to me how similar his career was to Henry Aaron’s. Each man played 23 seasons in the big leagues, and their careers largely overlapped. Both were remarkable for their consistent greatness over a very long period. Each won only one MVP, but they were consistently great for over two decades each. Each played in two World Series (Aaron’s team won one of those; Yaz played for the Sox during the curse years so of course his team lost in seven both times). Yaz was in 18 All Star games, Aaron in 25 (Hank had the advantage of two ASG’s a season early in his career).
But get this. As great as Yastrzemski was, Aaron was almost 50% better. Hank’s career bWAR was 143.1. In all significant offensive categories, Aaron was a little better than Yaz (and in some a lot better). Between his age 22 and age 40 seasons, Yaz had an OPS+ of at least 112 every year, and in three seasons it was over 170. But in his age 22 through age 40 seasons, Aaron’s OPS+ never dropped below 142 for a single season! Do I ever tire of singing the praises of Mr. Aaron? You already know the answer to that question.
Braves try to keep it going in a day game Wednesday. Spencer PDQ Schwellenbach gets his second start, facing Nick Pivetta, making his 160th start. Pivetta is the Platonic ideal of journeyman starter (and that’s not a bad thing at all) but I’m looking for a stronger career out of Schwellenbach, starting with his first MLB Win today.
Braves Wednesday Lineup
- Michael Harris II
- Austin Riley
- Marcell Ozuna
- Matt Olson
- Ozzie Albies
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Jarred Kelenic
- Orlando Arcia
- Spencer Schwellenbach
I need for Spencer to get a little chubbier so we can call him Schwellybelly.

Bravo! As someone who has recapped a lot of games I’ve never seen, I appreciate the craft – and even more, I appreciate the sentiment. June does feel like it could be a chance for the team to turn the page.
With the new dead baseball, our 2023 power has basically been cut off. We’re hitting the ball well, but it usually dies at the warning track. We’ll win with Sale, Fried, Lopez and Morton and strong defense.
RE: Brian Anderson
As much credit as Joc Pederson gets for his role in the pennant race, he still only had a .749 OPS during the regular season and 9-45 in the postseason (1-15 in the World Series). So if Anderson can do that for free, then that’s great.
With that said, Rosario and Soler both smashed for Atlanta (around .900 OPSes), so that will be a tall order for us in the trade market. Soler is hitting like crap in SF, but SF is out of it, so we might be able to get him back sooner rather than later for almost nothing if we decide to go that route.
I would not hate the idea of bringing back Soler if possible. He isn’t as outgoing as Joc, but he brings an edge as well.
So the Marlins DFA’d Avisail Garcia. I know he has been bad but is he someone we take a shot at?
Agreed re: Max starts being so much fun to watch these days, with the pitch mix and that curveball, which is maybe my favorite pitch in the bigs.
Maybe it’s irrational, but I think losing Fried would bum me out more than Freddie or Dansby. There was something particular about him—as the big piece to dream on in the Justin Upton deal at the beginning of the rebuild—not just becoming solid, but becoming awesome, that scratches a particular itch in fandom. Especially baseball fandom, where, in periods of prolonged despair for your team, you can follow kids in the minors and saddle them with all your dumb hopes for the future. While we were actively employing Erick Aybar and The Husk of Matt Kemp and trying to get excited about Matt Wisler, there was this starter with real-deal potential down in the minors that might shake out, and thusly someday redeem our suckitude, in ways that rarely actually ever happen. But then it actually did. WS winner and all.
(I know some could probably say the same about Dansby, but I was more attached to Upton than Shelby Miller and so the Upton trade, and its returns, always loomed larger for me, esp. as the bigger blockbuster and the one where it felt like we had more to lose.)
Yeah, I will miss Fried. You could just give him Charlie’s money and figure out how to replace Charlie cheaper.
Speaking of my long lost love Matt Wisler, he had an interesting end to his career: in 2022, he had a 2.25 ERA with Tampa Bay in 44 IP. But he had a 4.25 FIP, didn’t strike out a ton of guys (6 per 9), and hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since. The year before his FIP was a shiny 2.22 in 29 IP. Interesting that no one wants to give him a shot.
Yaz did win a Triple Crown in 1967, and was the only player in the AL to hit above .300 in 1968.
They had almost exactly the same number of plate appearances and strikeouts but Yaz walked an extra 440 times while Henry had about 350 more hits — with 300 extra homers and 40 extra triples. Amazing.
Thanks. I was wrong when I said Aaron was better in every offensive category. Yaz’s walks were significantly better. Aaron’s extra power more than makes up for that of course.
BTW, the photo I posted that I took of Touchdown Jesus last night appears to have cut out Jesus himself. Not sure what that means, if anything.
With Acuna now out for another year and maybe even looking at another season in 2025 like 2022 where he’s not quite himself, does the Acuna deal look as good in year 4? They could have had him for a total of, what, around $20M, but instead he’s made $54M in those 4 years. So we’ve paid an extra $20M or so to get the production we, in theory, would have gotten anyway. So these years, realistically, were negative value because we could have had him for a lot cheaper if we didn’t sign the extension.
In 2025, he’ll make $17M and he may not come back until mid-season. Per WAR, he’ll probably make about what he’d make as a free agent. So he probably doesn’t have a ton of surplus value in 2025.
But he should be fully healthy by 2026, and he’ll make $17M per from 2026 to 2028. He’ll accumulate a ton of surplus value if he stays healthy.
I’d say it’s still a great deal for us, but I don’t think it’s the highway robbery it looked like at the time. And if he gets hurt again, you’re really looking at a neutral deal if you like “cost per WAR” as a way of calculation and how you determine the cost per WAR.
I started wondering about this because MLB Now just did a segment on buying out the arb years. I hadn’t realized that quite a few players are upside down on their deals: Rodriguez, Franco, Tatis, and Carroll. I think using a pool theory, we’re going to end up ahead even with Acuna and Strider having injuries, but I think the “Braves are robbing these kids” narrative isn’t really holding up.
Not that it was a narrative that ever made any sense. They have agents and they have their own risk attitudes that deserve respect.
Interesting, I imagine the Albies deal would be a lot more lopsided now than acuñas.
I think we may end up losers on the strider deal and possibly the riley deal. Olson and Harris are still too early to tell.
Well, I guess I’ll be the one to break the silence on this turd of a game. This team is just no fun to watch. And yet, they throw together a decent performance like last night’s, reeling me back in, because I’m a complete sucker, and then they deliver . . . whatever this is.
Looks like Philly will end the day with an 8-game lead. The pholks up here have gone from gloating to feeling sorry for me. I’m in hell.
That is all.
Phils phans would do well to remember what an NL East title meant about a week after the last 2 regular seasons ended…
It would be nice to win the East again & claim a bye, but it’ll be more important to be prepped, ready & healthy for the post-season.
The MLB post-season has become the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
100% correct, ububba. We had 14 straight division titles and one championship. We’ve won it 6 years in a row this time and a whole lot of good that’s done us. They can have the East for all I care.
Schwellenbach got his cup of coffee but my guess is that he is headed to Gwinnett after this game, and the rotating 5th starter shuffle continues.
Hurston Waldrep be ready for that call man.
Or David Fletcher 😉
Ray Kerr may be officially turning into a pumpkin.
When you have Kelenik, Arcia, and Duval in the same lineup, with Money Mike leading off and Ozzie batting 2nd, this team will continue struggling to score runs. Puts a lot of pressure on Olson and Riley. I am not suggesting giving up, but maybe we should set ourselves up for better draft picks next year if we can’t turn it around quick. The entire team looks passionless and lethargic.
What’s wild is that what you’re saying is correct, but we’re one guy removed from having one of the best lineups in history last year.
Check out these OPS dips from 2023 to 2024:
Harris: -135
Ozzie: -100
Riley: -200
Olson: -237
Arcia: -99
Murphy: -337 (!!!!)
Rosario to Kelenic: -30 points
You simply can’t lose that much firepower and THEN lose Acuna and live to tell about it. Then the guy you bring in to mash lefties (Duvall) mashes lefties to a .977 OPS and then he has to play every day and he has a .310 (not a typo) OPS against RHP.
We’re starting to get into the window where teams will start to make deals, so we’re not too far away from being able to land some platoon partners or something. Definitely need the guys to get hit better and get Duvall out of the lineup against RHP.
I started watching the game, but then the Braves got down by 3. So I decided to ride my bicycle around Cades Cove (I live up in the Smokies). A handsome young bear loped cross the road in front of me. When I got home I checked the score and found that I missed absolutely nothing.
This team isn’t going to do a tear down while on pace to win 95 games and be the top wild card spot.
The 1999 team had a lot of injuries but Chipper went nuclear in the second half. We could really use that from Austin this year. Give me a few hot hitters with a healthy Sale and Fried and I like our chances in October.
I am concerned they won’t be able to really upgrade the outfield. There’s more sellers this year — only four teams are above .500 in the NL right now — but with Owen Murphy hurt I worry there’s not a prospect that could headline a trade package.
AJSS and Waldrep are nearly ready for the majors. Lara has massive upside, as does Ritchie, but the latter is still coming back from TJ. I personally like Schwellenbach and wouldn’t move him but maybe they have no other choice.
Drake Baldwin and Cade Keuhler with some other pieces? I don’t really know how much that returns, especially with how close we are to the next luxury tax threshold.
The good news is that you really won’t need to deal a ton to get what you need. Someone listed out the bucket of crap we sent to get Rosario, Duvall, Pederson, and Soler, and it really wasn’t much. I think it was Rodriguez that we actually gave up something decent for (Tucker Davidson)? I can’t remember how much salary we took back to get those guys, and I don’t know how much salary we can take on.
But I do feel like our needs are pretty well set: maybe get another reliever and fix RF, and that’s it. So it shouldn’t be too hard for us.
Recap is up.