Everything is going right for our Braves.  In defeating the Tigers 5-2, the record is now 21-9—the best record after 30 games since 2000.  As you know, our main division rivals, the Phillies and the Mets, are each off to their worst 30 game starts this millennium. I haven’t looked that last one up.  But if these aren’t the worst starts for either in 25 years, they are certainly the most disappointing for the two fanbases.  It’s pretty lucky to be playing so well while the other two division favorites are stinking up the joint.

Hall of Fame pitcher Lefty Gomez often said “I’d rather be lucky than good.”  Gomez was lucky to spend much of his career with the 1930’s Yankees.  But he was also a fine pitcher.  The Braves tonight were like Gomez.  This team is very good indeed, but tonight they were also lucky.  Martin Perez went five shutout innings, lowering his ERA to 2.22 on the season.  In his last three outings, he’s given up one earned run in 16 innings, and tonight, he surrendered just two hits in five innings.  Sounds pretty dominating.  So what was lucky about that?  Perez walked four Tigers and needed 91 pitches to get through five, and he had seven full counts.  But in at least four of those full counts he struck the batter out swinging.  You’d think that a pitcher who walks four and throws that many pitches in five innings has poor control.  But that wouldn’t really describe Perez.  Tonight at least, he reminded me of Tom Glavine.  He pitched all around the edges of the plate, and never threw one down the middle.  He never “gave in to the hitter,” to use a Glavine phrase.  Glavine would rather walk a batter than throw it in the heart of the plate.  Perez is the same.  I’d call that good and lucky.

Didier Fuentes, who was called up today when Dylan Lee went on paternity leave, followed Perez with two scoreless, and Kinley pitched a scoreless eighth.  Bummer lost the shutout in the ninth on a two run homer, but fortunately there was a five run cushion so no real harm.

The Braves had nine hits, six for extra bases (five doubles and a homer).  You’d think a team with that many extra base hits was really knocking the cover off the ball.  But they were lucky in those hits.  Of those six XBH’s, only one was over 100 mph—an Acuna leadoff double.  In the third, Yaz stroked an 89 mph double down the line in left, and Ronald drove him in with an 80 mph double down the left field line (and later scored on an Olson sac fly, much to Roger’s delight).  In the seventh, Dubon stroked a 95 mph double, and was driven in by a 78 mph single by Yaz.  In the eighth, Olson knocked an 80 mph double to right, and Ozzie followed with a 98 mph home run into the visiting bullpen.

Although most of these hits weren’t crushed, they weren’t entirely lucky.  They weren’t slow grounders that squeaked through or weak popups that happen to fall.  They were all hit pretty solidly.  When you do that, especially at a good launch angle to the outfield, and with a little luck, good things will happen. 

Going forward, this team will go through streaks when they aren’t very lucky.  I think they are good enough offensively and defensively to overcome those.  They are also good enough that when they have a little luck, they are nearly unbeatable.

Tomorrow JR Ritchie makes his second big league start against the best pitcher in the game.  You might think that is unlucky for him.  But if he pitches as well as he did last week against the Nats, and the Braves have a little luck against Skubal, it will be a night to remember.