Our Braves’ offense struggled yet again on Tuesday night. Once more, they managed to make a nondescript starter look like Pedro Martinez. For six innings, they drew blanks against Jake Irvin, managing only two hits while striking out ten times. Other than Marcell Ozuna, no lineup regular has an OPS higher than .744. Man, this offense stinks.
Despite the fact that they suck, our guys did manage to win the game 2-0. The Braves finally got on the board in the seventh, with the Big Bear’s league-leading 16th homer, and another run driven in on a sac fly by Kelenic. Max Fried was outstanding, tossing eight shutout innings. Varsity surrendered seven hits, but induced four double plays and picked another runner off first. Iglesias pitched a 1-2-3 ninth for the team’s MLB-leading ninth shutout on the season.
Since his first two anomalous starts of the season, Max has been brilliant, averaging over seven innings per start with an ERA of 1.75. Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez also have sub-2.00 ERAs since the first week of the season. The Braves’ top three starters have been the best in baseball, and the bullpen ERA is second only to the Dodgers in the NL.
They are ten games over .500, on a pace to win 96 games. And they’ve closed the gap with the Phillies to five games. The Phightins have lost three in a row, and are showing signs of falling back to earth after their historically great first six weeks.
You know what, perhaps the Braves don’t suck. Maybe they are a pretty good team after all, with a chance to compete all year and into October, despite the loss of Acuña and Strider and the general offensive ineptitude.
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I’ll admit that these offensive doldrums are frustrating. But I still believe the bats will come around. I’ve been writing that every week for many weeks now; one of these weeks I’ll be right, won’t I? Won’t I? Really, they will come around, won’t they?
Or maybe they won’t. Perhaps the 2024 team will repeat the pattern of the 1974 team.
As I prepare recaps, I sometimes look at what happened on this day in baseball history. Fifty years ago, on May 28, 1974, the Braves hosted the Phillies, and defeated them 2-1 in ten innings, on a walkoff solo home run by Henry Aaron in the bottom of the 10th. Buzz Capra pitched nine strong innings, surrendering just one run. Davey Johnson tied the game with a solo shot in the seventh, leading to the Hammer’s heroics in the tenth. (I’m pretty sure I was at that game, although I wouldn’t swear to it. I attended a lot of Braves games in the mid-seventies.)
What’s most memorable about the Braves’ 1974 season was exemplified in that May 28 game. The pitching was outstanding, the offense not so much. But the year before, the 1973 Braves, like the 2023 Braves, were an offensive juggernaut. They led the league in runs scored by a large margin; indeed, they scored more runs than any Atlanta Braves team until the late nineties. They were the first team in history with three players to hit 40 home runs (Aaron, Johnson, and Darrell Evans). In addition to those three, Dusty Baker and Mike Lum turned in very strong seasons.
Then in 1974, that historically great offense disappeared. Their runs scored fell to the bottom third of the league, and their OPS+ was just 87. Each of the top five hitters from the year before fell off from the 1973 pace, some dramatically. (Only Ralph Garr had a better year in 74 than in 73.) But the team’s record improved by twelve games from 1973 to 1974, thanks to an outstanding pitching staff. The aforementioned Capra led the league in ERA, and Phil Niekro was second third in ERA and won twenty games. Carl Morton was a solid third starter, and Tom House was an excellent closer. Indeed, the pitching staff led the league in ERA plus by a wide margin. This, by the way, was the only pre-1991 Atlanta Braves team that had a league-leading pitching staff.
Although the team record improved substantially over 1973, the Dodgers won over 100 games, and the Braves still finished 14 games out. All year long in 1974, I was convinced that if the bats would just approach 1973 levels, the team would be dominant. But the bats never really came around.
Maybe the bats will come around in 2024. For the record, I am convinced that Olson, Riley, and Harris will finish with much stronger stats by the end of this season. But maybe they won’t. It’s pretty clear that the season offensive totals won’t approach 2023. But as long as the pitching keeps this up, we’re in for a fun ride.
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Tonight, Spencer Schwellenbach makes his big league debut. I always enjoy these “meet the parents” nights. He’ll have a lot of family present, and we’ll all be pulling for him. As good as the top three starters have been, it would be good to get some solid performances from the number five spot. And it would help the kid if the offense scores 8 or 9 rather than 1 or 2. Get it done, guys.

Just give Fried the money. The free agent options aren’t going to be any cheaper and the odds Waldrep, Schwellenbach or AJSS are as good or consistent as Fried are incredibly low.
The Acuna injury should serve as reminder the championship window isn’t always as large as it seems; some of the young pitchers in the system could be great but there may not be time to wait on them.
Fully agree that the Braves should give Max whatever he wants. Since the start of the 2020 season, among all starters with at least 400 innings pitched, Fried is 2nd in ERA, 6th in FIP, and 13th in xFIP. He’s been excellent.
I fear Fried will probably be around 7YR/$210M. If the Braves wanna do that, go for it, but he’s gonna be 31 next year and he’ll be pitching in his late 30’s collecting the back end of that deal. It doesn’t seem like the Braves’ MO, but who knows.
162 game paces for our lineup regulars:
d’Arnaud: 5.0
Olson: 1.5
Albies: 1.8
Arcia: 3.1
Riley: 3.3
Kelenic: 1.5
Harris: 2.8
Acuna (RIP): 3.9
Ozuna: 6.5
The guys around the 1.5-1.8 range are sitting at 0.4-0.6 a third of the way through the year. If they had a hot weekend, that initial number obviously flies up, multiple by 3, and you’re feeling a lot better. But the facts are the facts: if the bats don’t get hot, this is a pretty bad.
For what we’re paying Duvall, he’s been solid so far (0.4 fWAR). Tromp looks really good (0.3 fWAR). Short has been exactly replacement level in his short stint, which is probably about all you can hope for.
I think it’s time for the M.O. to be m.o.dified.
Amen, AAR. We reportedly offered 6/$162 to Nola this past off-season. If 7/$210 is what it takes, the marginal jump in AAV from $27m to $30m/per feels pretty… marginal to me, for someone of Fried’s established caliber.
7/$210 is scary, but again, I just don’t see a great alternative.
I believe DOB said on one of his podcasts Liberty doesn’t allow deferred money but I could be wrong about that. The Dodgers do it all the time and they are still the gold standard, so if it’s good enough for them it should be for us. It allows Max to get his high AAV on paper but gives the team some flexibility.
Overall, I think Max will age better than most of his peers. He’s never had high average velocity or K rates. Every signing can’t be about the team achieving maximum surplus value.
5 back of the Phils, but only 3 in the loss column, as we’ve played fewer games. This despite Philly playing out of their minds most of the season, and us with the offense mostly AWOL. Let’s start hitting the gosh-dang ball and take what’s ours.
Got my haircut and it looks like AA is digging in for a monster four way.
ATL Gets- Kevin Gausman and Brent Rooker
TOR Gets- JR Rictchie, Michael Arias (CHI)
OAK Gets- Schwellenbach, Jefferson Rojas (CHI)
Cubs Get- Kyle McCann, Kerr, Ken Giles
I don’t think even AA can get Gausman and Rooker for a guy out with Tommy John and another TJ survivor with 2 starts above A-ball.
And how about “PDQ” as the nickname for Schwellenbach?
Love it! PDQ it is.
PDQ Schwellenbach is great!
According to DOB, Schwellenbach’s finacee is named Shelby. If she sells sea shells by the sea shore, it would be perfect.
That is fabulous. You win!