A Note On Scoring Runs
I looked at every game played this year as of last night. It will surprise no one that winning is positively related to scoring runs. But I was a little surprised at just how related it is. Here are the winning percentage across all teams by runs scored:
| Runs Scored | Winning Percentage |
| 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 11% |
| 2 | 27% |
| 3 | 42% |
| 4 | 52% |
| 5 | 68% |
| 6 | 74% |
I have to say I was somewhat surprised that scoring one run had even as high as an 11% probability. But this year there have indeed been 35 1-0 games this year and 276 games with the losing team scoring only run. It only seems like these were all Braves games. The Braves have won no 1-0 games this year, but have lost 5 2-1 and 3 3-1 games, and 5 other games in which they scored only 1 run. That’s 13 1-run games, all losses.
The good teams have scored one run around seven times. You need to score runs to win.
The Game
Aaron Bummer, in his first career start, confounded his critics with five strikeouts in his first two innings of work. He then proceeded to confound his supporters (like his manager, who sent him back out there in the 3rd) by giving up two homers and three runs to cough up a lead which he had gotten courtesy of a two-run Austin Riley homer in the 1st. Bummer confounds everyone! His starting ERA ought to be somewhere between his first two inning ERA of 0.00 and his 3rd inning ERA of 81.00. No wonder it’s confounding.
Matt Olson counfounded Dean Kremer‘s plan with a tying home run in the bottom of the third. Kremer didn’t want to throw a slider to Olson, but he overruled himself: he lost the battle of Kremer vs. Kremer.
Dylan Dodd, in the best shape of his career, finished up the two outs in the third successffully and was given the fourth. Colton Cowser hit a two-run confounder to give the Orioles the lead back.
Not for long, as the Kremer Confoundment continued. (That was the title of the last unfinished work by Robert Ludlum.) Hits from Olson and Riley brought in two more runs to tie it at 5-5. The Braves rallied in the bottom of the the 5th but were forced to give an at-bat under the rules of baseball to Michael Harris II, the Braves’ designated non-hitter.
The 6th saw Scott Blewitt confounding expectations by pitching the 6th against his old team. Unlike Charlie Morton yesterday, he was not given a standing ovation on his return to Truist. I guess fans are just not sufficiently grateful for his storied six-week career in a Braves uniform. The fans changed their tune, however, when Blewitt promptly loaded the bases: they like him now! A Jurickson Profar dribbler gave the Braves the lead.
Austin Cox saw the mandatory minimum three batters in the 7th. Only one of them scored! So we’re tied again.
The 9th inning began with Raisel Iglesias on the mound. It’s a bullpen game, and he’s in the bullpen, right? Actually, he has pitched much better since he lost the closer role. That’s great, except that sometimes you need a closer. But I’d much rather have an effective set-up guy and no real closer than a bad closer.
Felix Bautista pitched the 9th for Earl Weaver‘s boys. We cleared his bullpen spot to get to Manfred Man time. Rafael Montero pitched, if you call it that, and gave up three. The decision to play the infield in with a Manfred Man on third and one out backfired in the way that play usually does, when it backfires: you increase the chance of cutting down the run at the expense of opening up the possibility of a big inning. I’m not a fan…. I would rather cede the run knowing that you’ll have a reasonable chance on the other side, but I acknowledge it’s a close call. Indeed, a recent Fangraphs article by Ben Clemens argues that the home team has an extra innings disadvantage under the Manfred Man rules for just this reason.
Referencing the chart above, we scored 6 and still lost. But at least we didn’t lose by one.
In any case, we still had a chance, but it’s hard to argue that you have a great chance of scoring three in an inning in which Michael Harris II is due to hit. Yennier Cano pitched to Ozzie Albies, Harris II and Luke Willams — should that even count as a save? The only thing you saved was the embarrassment of giving up a hit to those guys. Had any one gotten on, RAJ would have had a chance. He didn’t.
My Misspent Youth
Does anyone other than me remember The King and Odie? Confound it! Why am I doomed to remember this crap?
After watching two uninspiring losses, I mercifully missed this one. Raisel Iglesias is pitching his way into trade consideration. We are tits up so what else is there to mull?
It will be Grant Holmes tomorrow, and after that … ???
Bryce Elder is actually the perfect pitcher for what will be left of this season and rotation. The campaign is lost. And frankly, the worst thing this organization can do is bring up young pitchers who could help eventually, but who aren’t yet ready and could have their confidence shattered by being knocked around today.
Hurston Waldrep clearly isn’t ready; he’s being rocked at Gwinnett this year (he’s starting tonight, too). Calling him up would be malpractice. Nathan Wiles’ last start was Thursday. Davis Daniel’s last start was on Tuesday. Neither are among the top 30 prospects.
There are your lambs to the slaughter.
Wiles probably deserves to be next up. I haven’t watched him pitch, but I’m guessing the Braves don’t think he can get major league hitters out based on their reticence to call him up.
Aren’t there some scrub arms in Denver, Chicago, or Sacramento who can at least chew up innings for the next 11 weeks? They’ve got to cover 75 more games and Strider, Holmes, Elder, Fuentes, and the bullpen aren’t going to get it done.
A season like this makes me thankful for baseball.
Imagine a universe (per Rod Serling) where the Braves keep Swanson and Laureano and do not sign Profar. Even without Fried I think that might be enough to make us a playoff team. We were able to reasonably replace Freeman and Contreras but we have not replaced Swanson or fixed LF. Signing Laureano instead of Profar might have saved enough money to cover Dansby. Nick Allen would make a great backup IF and White would make a great 4th OF.
The team we have is just a piece of crap. The mid 70s and late 80’s teams could at least hit.
Even watching Blewitt I was reminded that he gave up 5 runs to the D’Backs in a loss and one to us in a win.
It’s a reminder that much of this is AA’s mess. That said, letting Swanson go at the price he commanded was defensible. But this organization’s cries of “budget” always ring hollow, especially after receiving the taxpayer-supported cash-printing complex known as The Battery. Satisfying shareholders is not my concern. It has long been a truism of sports business that the true windfall to balance out any losses along the way in pursuit of on-field/court/ice success comes at the point of sale via asset appreciation. Also, for individual owners, owning a sports franchise is fun and brings a certain status that owning, say, a meat-packing concern does not. No such intangible benefit exists for a faceless corporation that must account for distribution of dividends. Anyhow, at least we saw Drake and Sean in the same lineup, though without RAJr, as if the manager tells us we will never have it all on his watch. So it goes, it remains a lovely sport, even if this particular team’s season is an unpleasant slog,
At least now we have a strategy for fantasy. Pick whoever pitches against the Braves.
I had not noticed that today’s game started early. Lucky me—I’ve been spared yet more frustration with watching the continuing offensive futility.
JF, I do remember the King and Odie, although I had not given that show any thought in at least 60 years. You have to be as old as we are to remember it, and a sizable majority of people on this blog and in the world are not as old as we are. Confound you! Now I have been reminded of my age, and what’s worse I am thinking of that show. It did not measure up to Tennessee Tuxedo or Underdog. And light years short of Rocky and Bullwinkle.
The King and Odie were the Denis Menke of Saturday Mornings. Rocky and Bullwinkle were Henry Aaron.
Grant Holmes with his 8th quality start and on track to lose his 8th decision. If you look at starts with 5 or more innings and 3 runs or fewer allowed, it’s 13 such starts. Great season for him. Could be a 15-game winner with a major league offense.
There’s going to need to be a cleansing fire after this season.
Considering current staff, we are probably the third worst team in MLB. The Rockies will keep us from the NL’s worst record
Murphy must read this blog. He hit that ninth inning homer so we’d have yet one more one run loss and another loss where we scored one run.
Recapped.