Well…this was a fun surprise for a Monday…
Shohei Ohtani wants to win and outside of maybe Baltimore, Atlanta is set up for sustained success for years to come. Ohtani will not be able to pitch in the 2024 season, but should be good to go in 2025. It remains unclear as to what procedure Ohtani had, but the timetable suggests that he had a 2nd Tommy John surgery and that would really complicate things.
Let’s be real though. Ohtani is other-worldly with the bat, but is relegated, like Ozuna, to the DH position. In 2023, Ohtani collected 44 HRs, carried a 1.066 OPS on the year, and was worth 6.6 fWAR with his bat alone. So yes, he’s relegated to DH, but he’s also the best hitter currently in the game.
Would Ohtani’s Contract Pay for Itself?
It’s assumed that Ohtani will get $50MM/year for 8+ years, but how much of that contract pays for itself? I have a friend that has lived in Japan for a decade. I asked him about Ohtani and he said his face is everywhere and that 1/2 the population wear his jersey and rock Angels hats. While I don’t know the % sales that each individual team gets when they sell their own products, if millions of people across the globe are rocking your brand, there’s more than just tickets sales that go up. The Braves would sell out every game and their merchandise would fly off of every shelf worldwide, especially in Asian countries.
In 81 home games, the Braves sold out 54 times. If the Braves were to sign Ohtani, it’s almost guaranteed that Ohtani’s presence makes 54 become 81. Total revenue in 2023 rose $55 million, but imagine what it would rise if the team were to sign the most popular player in baseball across the globe.
Conclusion
Historically, Anthopoulos is not the guy to go make these kinds of moves. However, when it comes to Ohtani, the man’s presence just prints money. Put everything else aside and ask yourself if the Braves can cover the cost of Ohtani’s salary through the added income and that answer is likely a hell yes.
Yeah, Ohtani’s pretty much worth whatever you pay him on merch alone. In the words of Teddy KGB: “Pay that man his money.”
Pay that man his money and pencil him in the lineup every day, please AA!
I think Ohtani is at that otherworldly level, like a Jordan, LeBron, or Tom Brady. If he says he wants to come to your team, it doesn’t matter what else you have going on at that position. You clear a space for him and make everyone else slide down a spot.
What’s interesting is the idea of the Braves almost being in a position to say “no thanks”. They are already so stacked with talent that Ohtani maybe gives them a smaller boost than he would give to another team.
On Ohtani. He was worth nearly $60MM on the bat alone. Also, according to this fangraphs piece, pitchers with a 2nd TJ have similar results compared to what they were accomplishing before the operation.
LIke the outside of the box thinking
If I were trying to extract as much money as possible from either the Dodgers or Mets, the Braves would be the exact team I’d say I’m intrigued by.
I mean, of course he says he’s intrigued. That’s leverage.
It would be a hell of a thing for him to come to the Braves. But I still think he ends up in New York or LA.
We go through this every year. We know AA almost always strikes early. What if Jimenez and Johnson (and Morton option) are the big signings for the year?
Don’t forget Morton! Oh wait you said that.
I like rosterbating as much as the next guy, but I am getting a bit jaded after years of thinking something big might happen and nothing does. I like baseball every day; the offseason is excruciating.
Although I’m not expecting it, I’ve always felt Ohtani to Atlanta was a possibility. This article doesn’t mention Atlanta’s interest, but my guess is the speculation will not last long if Atlanta does kick the tires. He’ll be signed very quickly or we will move on very quickly if it doesn’t work out.
“Few (if any) teams are set up to contend long term than the Atlanta Braves.”
Would be cool, sure, but… there’s also the Dodgers.
I’ve said for a long time that I think he ends up in Seattle. It just makes too much sense: they’re also set up to win long-term, they’re on the West Coast, they’re in the same division as LAA, and the Ichiro connection. But if he restricts his window to only West Coast teams, then his leverage plummets since Seattle’s pretty much the only West Coast team that makes sense. Saying you’ll go to the opposite end of the country is smart.