Going into the Winter Meetings, the Braves biggest needs were left field and starting pitching and it didn’t take long for Alex Anthopoulos to get busy and address both at the Winter Meetings.
According to Ryan Divish, $4.5MM is coming back in the deal. Jarred Kelenic was the real target and Marco Gonzales and Evan White were just the price of doing business. Gonzalez is owed $12.25MM in 2024 while White is owed $7MM in 2024, $8MM in 2025, and has a $2MM buyout for the 2026 season. Assuming the Braves keep Marco, AA took on what will likely be about $25MM to secure a cost-controlled LFer.
When it comes to trades, AA doesn’t really like risk and even though there’s not a ton of $ tied up into this deal, the deal is risky from a production perspective. Kelenic has to be fixed in order to really provide the value the Braves need from him. His OPS in 2021 was .615, .534 in 2022, and .746 in 2023, which was aided by a .359 BABIP. If Seitzer can help Kelenci cut down the K and fix his swing plane, the kid could be a stud.
Overall, this is, at the least, a good idea. Kelenic has real pedigree. However, there’s real risk involved, especially if AA could’ve gotten better production elsewhere.
Lucky for us, though, Seitzer is one serious badass.
Edit: It looks like the Braves have no intention of keeping Marco.
Kelenic also has platoon splits, so it might be a situation where Grissom plays vs LHP. And the shorter right field fence at Truist will help compared to cavernous Safeco.
Mariner fans hate this trade.
Mariner fans are pissed that the team isn’t cashing in after their first playoff performance in years. Apparently, they’re pushing for Soto, but will never spend for him in free agency. Such a weird franchise.
While it’s true that Kelenic hasn’t reached his full potential yet, his 2023 season was promising. His stats weren’t exactly otherworldly (triple slash of .253/.327/.419, 11 HR, 108 wRC+), but his underlying numbers were great. He was above average in all of the following categories:
Barrel % (9.5%)
Average EV (90.9 MPH)
Sweet Spot % (38.8%)
xwOBA (.333)
xwOBACON (.457 — top 10% of MLB)
Hard-hit rate (45.5%)
The .457 xwOBACON is particularly important, as it indicates that Kelenic already does what Seitzer and the Braves teach their hitters to do: hit the ball as hard as possible without worrying too much about a contact-oriented approach. Yeah, that means he’s probably going to strike a fair amount, but the quality of contact is great, and he fits in neatly to what the Braves are trying to do with offensively. If his z-swing rate improves and the power remains intact, he could have a good time within the friendly confines of Truist.
Overall, Kelenic has tremendous upside with the bat, has a good throwing arm, and comes with 5 years of team control. Even if he doesn’t break out, though, the worst case scenario is that he provides league average offense and bats somewhere at the bottom of an order that is already stacked anyway.
What am I missing? Kelenic just put up those numbers including above average hard contact and barrel rates as a 23 year-old. We basically bought a 24 year old left fielder who already has encouraging performance (2.0 WAR 2023) and has his whole prime ahead of him for $25 MM and 2 fringe prospects. On the surface, this looks like an insanely good trade, and I couldn’t have conceived of it.
I would agree that AA doesn’t like risk, but what he does like to do is to bet on the mid-to-late twenties of talented players. Those bets are a lot safer than the late thirties.
It’s really unusual for a .300 hitter with significant ABs at AAA to be a .200 hitter in the Majors. I could be sold that his 2023 season is closer to his true MLB level at this point on his age curve. If that’s the case, in a full season he should at least equal Eddie Rosario at the plate while providing better defense and speed, even without cashing in any offensive upside.
I don’t think it’s a lock that he’s better than Vaughn Grissom, though. Grissom is a year younger, with a similar minor league OPS for those concerned about power from left field, and a better established MLB record. I could be persuaded Grissom has a higher floor and Kelenic a higher ceiling, but I’m pretty high on Grissom’s ceiling too.
Kelenic career AAA: 580 PA, .302/.374/.567, OPS .941.
Grissom career AAA: 468 PA, .330/.419/.501, OPS .921.
Kelenic career MLB: 974 PA, .204/.283/.373, OPS .656.
Grissom career MLB: 236 PA, .287/.339/.407 OPS .746.
I’m also pretty sure AA isn’t done maneuvering.
I wouldn’t assume we have given up on Grissom as a SS or that we’re sold on Arcia. Grissom is not ready to play SS, but I believe Wash when he said he thought he could hack it eventually. It’s also entirely possible as you suggest that Grissom is going for a Cease.
Well, I’ve given up on Grissom as a SS, but I’m just an internet rando. On the other hand, I’ve had some decent amateur success projecting hitters, and I can picture a Christian Yelich type trajectory for him. I really like Grissom.
Fangraphs are particularly unkind to Jerry Dipoto on this deal
Was Kelenic the guy who Seattle kept down apparently for service time reasons a couple of years ago that made Fangraphs writers particularly unhappy? I remember that whoever it was didn’t play well when he eventually was called up, which made me think he probably wouldn’t have set the world on fire if the Mariners had called him up earlier when he had less experience.
Great job by AA to get Kelenic. I’m also glad that it looks like we don’t plan to keep Gonzales. 6.7 ks per 9 innings over his career and dropping to between 5 and 6 ks over the last few years. Add forearm problems and the “innings eater” label that I’ve seen and it’s pretty clear he’s not the rotation solution.
Hot Stove is saying we are still talking to Ohtani’s agent. We are also trying to work something for Dylan Cease. This is going to be a super interesting Winter Meeting.
Kelenic has great underlying stats, but nothing can hide a 30% K-rate. If Seitzer can fix that, holy smokes…
Kelenic sounds like a budding Rosario that can play defense. If Marco has to go to get a better SP then so be it as long as it’s another improvement (ala Hearn for Lopez). I still like a rejuvenated Marco as a 4th SP, especially if we trade Elder.
Marco obviously has unimpressive peripherals, but at some point you are what you are, and he, up until a shortened 2023 had put together 5 years of impressive, durable starting pitching with a 3.94 ERA and even a 200 inning season mixed in there. You can do a lot worse for a 4th starter and much, much worse for a 5th starter. Lord knows the 2023 Braves did with regularity. I don’t know about his injury and recovery, but he was definitely a solid back-end option for a long time, and he’s just 31.
I’ll add my name to the people applauding this move by AA. Getting Kelenic for five years is quite the steal, and is probably better than any free-agent signing at that position.
I am very confused about our payroll situation. I guess we’ll find out soon enough if we have the payroll space to add a big name starter.
We don’t have a payroll limit. What we have is a cost-benefit analysis of adding further assets. That is why we’re talking to Ohtani still.
“Beyond the simple fact Ohtani could help turn an offense that was the best in baseball in 2023 into one that’s potentially the best in history in 2024, and potentially even fill the ace role in 2025 and beyond if the Braves lose Max Fried to free agency, there’s one reason that could outweigh all the reasons not to sign him. Stock price.
As of last summer, Liberty Media and Atlanta Braves Holdings are separate publicly traded companies. The Braves are the first publicly traded MLB team in a quarter-century. But Liberty remains the majority shareholder, Liberty’s CEO chairs the Braves Holdings board of directors, and several Liberty execs double as officers of Braves Holdings.
Liberty has allowed McGuirk and Anthopoulos to make all the baseball decisions in the past, and McGuirk is the one who basically sets the payroll and gives Anthopoulos permission to go over budget when need arises.
But how about if there was an opportunity to give a substantial boost to that Braves stock, a move that would directly cause it to soar? For instance, by signing the most celebrated baseball player of the modern era, one whose fame and individual brand is uniquely transformational in baseball. Ohtani in your organization could open new revenue streams not just from Japanese interests — broadcasting, advertising — but also from many other business interests seeking to be connected to his cosmopolitan, worldwide appeal.
But maybe more importantly, it could boost Braves stock to such a degree that tens of millions in luxury taxes and overage fees are relatively small considerations. Because with him in the fold, and that team stock on the rise, what would that do to the value of the Braves, should Liberty Media decide to sell the team? Selling it is something some business insiders have been predicting since the team split the stock, and others even before that, since the team first began raking in more dollars from The Battery and increased ticket and merchandise sales after its on-field success, along with the ascension to superstar status of the wildly popular Acuña.”
-DOB
Get it done, Warren.
Maybe I’m letting my initial reaction continue to cloud my judgment, but I’m really just not sure why we made this trade. What is Kelenic’s ceiling? A 2 WAR corner OF? Is that worth taking back $25M in salary and dealing Kowar, who we just traded Kyle freaking Wright for? I dunno, it just seems like we’re just moving risk around. Wright for Kowar, Kowar for Kelenic + salary. I dunno. I kinda wish we had just kept Wright at this point.
Now, if Kelenic becomes a 3.5-4 WAR OF, then that’s a different story altogether.
Im with you Rob, these few moves together have me scratching my bald head a bit, but AA so good at keeping everyone guessing maybe there is more to come
I think Kelenic’s ceiling is pretty decent. He’s 24 and should continue to improve for a few years. The question is, does he improve from last year’s numbers and approach his AAA record, or does he improve from his career numbers, which are pretty poor? Last season raises some optimism, but I’m reluctant to yada, yada away the other 500 MLB at-bats. The problem is that his floor is… Kelenic.
I just think Grissom is more of a sure thing. But getting anything for Kowar looks like a good deal.
A 2 WAR corner outfielder is what Kelenic was at 23. If you think he’s peaked, I wonder what you’re basing that on. Most position players peak at 28. If you follow usual aging curves, we get 5 years of a 3-4 WAR outfielder, and yes, that is worth $25 MM.
Wright I did not like trading one bit, but if you think his particular shoulder injury makes him questionable to be full strength even 2024, it makes sense. Shoulders are nasty things. We don’t know what sort of science AA had at his disposal.
I love the Kelenic trade and I hated the Murphy trade, and I still hate it. I don’t always give AA credit, but I do like this one.
There are two types of trajectories – down and up. When were on the downside, we traded veterans for prospects – that ultimately netted us Fried and Riley (and Swanson and Ynoa if you’re so inclined). We developed prospects – Albies, Acuna, Harris, Strider, Minter (and Soroka, Anderson, Elder if you’re so inclined). The next step is to consolidate potential into star power – that includes Olson, Murphy, Iglesias. I hope that can happen once again whether it be for Cease or Kelenic (or Arcia or Bummer, if you’re so inclined). That is ultimately the genius of the Braves organization (if not just AA). The ability to succeed during both trajectories to build what we have. I think it will continue. I may not have liked the Olson or Murphy trades (or Kelenic) but they make perfect sense in the scheme of things.
Be patient guys, the offseason is not over. We will get our ace.
Marco already gone. We hardly knew ye. To Pittsburgh with $ for a PTBNL.
Happy for Marco he’ll be a Pirate. Given his lengthy & colorful history as a Mariner (sailing around Asia, entering the court of Kublai Khan, etc), I assume he is most comfortable with nautical teams.
A few notes:
•It’s highly likely that the Pirates will claim someone today in the Rule 5 draft and trade him to the Braves as the PTBNL in the Marco Gonzales trade. My guess is that elite defensive IFer from the Marlins.
•I’ve watched video on Kelenic and there’s an obvious flaw in his swing. I think AA, Seitzer, and the analytics team know they can fix him. Simply lowering his hands and adjusting his swing plane will do wonders for him, but it’s going to take a TON of offseason work. My guess is the Braves get his K-rate down by 10% this year and he carries a mid-800 OPS.
it’s kinda fun watching our old friends sign – Yates, Heller, Tonkin. Hope we have improved with the new guys we have (and those returning from injury). I still think there may be more room for MiLB signings (Chavez?). If Ryan is correct, I think that may be a good thing – a cheap version of Nicky Lopez. And AA has set us up perfectly for such an outcome.
I don’t have a problem with the Kelenic trade in the abstract. You wanna take a chance on this guy and see if our coaching staff can fix him with the best-case scenario being we’ve solved our left-field troubles? Yeah, OK. Didn’t give up anybody that we’ll particularly miss, either, and as long as the salary we took on doesn’t prevent us from fixing our actual biggest problem – which remains starting pitching – I say thumbs up.
But that last part is the rub, isn’t it? Because we absolutely need another top-half of the rotation starting pitcher…full stop. And we’re probably gonna have to overpay to get one. And I’m not convinced AA (or ownership) is willing to overpay ever…even to get the one thing that he knows this team needs.
This deal strikes me kind of like the Murphy deal last year, where you tie yourself in a knot to make a deal for a piece that’s nice (might even be an upgrade) but that the team doesn’t really need. Meanwhile, you leave the thing that the team really needs undone because it’s too expensive or it’s not genius enough or…I don’t know. He’s got several more months to get a starter so I don’t want to get ahead of myself here.
It just kind of seems to me like AA has sometimes internalized a bit too much that he’s playing four-dimensional chess while everyone else is playing checkers or something. He spent way too much capital on the Murphy trade last year instead of fixing positions of need. And we very well might have been better off just keeping Contreras and not doing that deal at all. And here left field is at least a position of need, but it’s not the number one position of need, and I worry that come March we’re going to have signed a AAAA starter and said, Welp, we used all our spending money on the Kelenic deal so we’re not gonna upgrade the rotation at all, but I’m sure Max will be fine and one of the AAA starters will blossom and Elder won’t turn into a pumpkin and this AAAA guy will do the trick.
Again, I’ll give him the full offseason before going nuts. And I understand that the “we like our team now” stuff could very well be posturing during the Winter Meetings. But this can’t be what we go into the season with, can it?
Yeah, y’all are right that I’m under-selling Kelenic’s upside. He’s probably much better than a 2 WAR peak. And we just got money back for Marco, so that begins to even out the deal for our side.
Both the Mariners and Pirates are giving us money right now. It’s almost like a tax on the poor…
I have been told by a source that the Braves are sending $9.25MM to the Pirates in the Marco deal. And apparently, the PTBNL is going to be a fairly good player instead of the normal bottom of the barrel pickup.
True, but unfortunately, it’s Roberto Clemente.
LOL Jonathan
im really confused on these trades, we gave Pittsburgh a player, and a lot of $? who on earth could we get back from them? Reynolds?
How about Ji Hwan Bae? Wouldn’t that be a kick in the pants? Or Roddery Munoz…… lol.
New thread.
Looks like comments are closed on the thread. How can we leave comments regarding our favorite memories of Taylor Hearn?
Fixed!