While many are still left unsettled because the Braves didn’t pursue any of the biggest names this offseason, you’d be hard-pressed to find someone that has worked so hard to improve his team as Alex Anthopoulos has done since October. But the question still remains: Are the Braves done? Maybe. Maybe not. However, let’s check in on what AA and his team have done since the 2023 season ended.
Braves that Left via Free Agency
- OF Kevin Pillar
- RP Jesse Chavez
- OF Eddie Rosario
- RP Brad Hand
- RP Kirby Yates
- RP Collin McHugh
- RP Michael Tonkin
- SP Kolby Allard
- SP Yonny Chirinos
Braves Offseason MiLB Signings
- IF Alejo Lopez
- LHP Drew Parrish
- C Sebastian Rivero
- IF Luke Williams
- OF Luis Liberato
- RP Grant Holmes
- RP Ben Bowden
- IF Andrew Velazquez
- RP Tommy Doyle
- RP Jorge Juan
- UT Leury Garcia
- RP Zach Logue
- IF Phillip Evans
- RHP Taylor Widener
Braves Offseason MLB Signings
- LHP Angel Perdomo, Split Contract
- RHP Penn Murfee, Split Contract
- RHP Jackson Stephens, Split Contract
- RHP Reynaldo Lopez
- RHP Joe Jimenez
- RHP Pierce Johnson
Braves Acquisitions
- RP Aaron Bummer
- OF Jarred Kelenic
- UI David Fletcher
- RP Ray Kerr
- SP Chris Sale
Braves Losses via Claim or Trade
- OF Sam Hilliard
- RP Jackson Kowar
- SP Kyle Wright
- RP Nick Anderson
- SS Braden Shewmake
- SP Jared Shuster
- SP Riley Gowens
- SP Michael Soroka
- UI Nicky Lopez
- CF Drew Campbell
- UT Vaughn Grissom
Braves Losses after Trade Followed by Another Trade
- SP Marco Gonzalez
- C Max Stassi
- DH Evan White
- DH Matt Carpenter
- RP Tyler Thomas
Breakdown of the Madness and Who Goes Where?
Thus far, the Braves have dealt and/or let go 20 players that donned an Atlanta Braves, or one of it’s affiliates, jerseys in the 2023 season. And between the MLB and MiLB signings, the Braves have added 25 to their organization.
Of the 25, Bummer, Kelenic, Jimenez, Johnson, Lopez, and Sale look to be Opening Day locks, while Fletcher, Kerr, and Stephens seem likely to start in the minors. Perdomo and Murfee will be on a rehab assignment with Murfee expected back sometime in the middle of the season while Perdomo will be out all year.
The rest of the guys will headed to varying levels, but the frontrunners for MLB callups from this group are Murfee, Velazquez, Stephens, Williams, Liberato, Garcia, and Holmes. If I was forced to guess who’d be 1st, it would be Williams.
Anything Else?
When Looking at the active roster, you’d be hard-pressed to find a hole, with the exception of a RHH OF. Here’s how I see the roster:
Starting Pitcher
- Max Fried
- Spencer Strider
- Charlie Morton
- Chris Sale
- Bryce Elder
Relief Pitcher
- Joe Jimenez
- Pierce Johnson
- A.J. Minter
- Aaron Bummer
- Reynaldo Lopez
- Dylan Lee
- Tyler Matzek
- Raisel Iglesias
Infield
- Matt Olson
- Ozzie Albies
- Austin Riley
- Orlando Arcia
- David Fletcher
Outfield
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Michael Harris II
- Jarred Kelenic
DH
Catcher
- Travis D’Arnaud
- Sean Murphy
Breakdown: This leaves 2 roster spots to play with. In all likelihood, the Braves will start the year off by breaking the rotation in slowly, allowing AJ Smith-Shawever and maybe even Hurston Waldrep a few spot starts early in the year. That should fill in one spot. The other, and it’s the last hole on the team, looks to be a RHH OFer.
Cheaping out for an OFer
Financially speaking, the Braves are entering a dangerous position to be in.
Unless they dump some salary between now and the beginning of the season, the Braves are going to need shop at the Walmart Neighborhood market rather than Whole Foods when it comes to their pursuit of a RHH OFer. Of course, there are solutions to this conundrum that likely weaken the overall product: Trading one of Iglesias or Ozuna. Not only would that allow for the team to grab a RHH OFer, it would also help the team rotate the DH and shop in a larger aisle at the trade deadline. Iglesias is owed $16MM in 2024 and Ozuna is owed $18MM.
However, if the Braves don’t make any big changes and they have to make ~$3MM work, there’s not a a large list to shop from:
- Jordan Luplow
- Aaron Hicks
- Kyle Lewis
- Kevin Pillar
Of this list, my first choice would be Kyle Lewis and last would be Luplow. Hicks was really good against LHP last year.
Well, Forrest Wall is a RHH left/center fielder. I take all of this is a little personally, since I know I owe you a 2023 recap on Forrest Wall. Is this your passive-aggressive way to goad me into 1000 words on how Forrest Wall is the answer?
Yes!
Aren’t we limited by rule to 13 pitchers on the 26 man? That means there are two bench spots left, not just one. Unless I’m missing something or mistaken, we can’t presume one of those spots is for an extra rotation arm. One spot for a RHH OF (Forrest Wall is a left handed hitter) and the other spot for idk. Could be Wall in the other spot or some other internal option or we could shop at Walmart for another bench guy.
My bad… LHH, RHH. This is what you get when you underpay people who do the season recaps.
No worries, I was just saying that because he doesn’t fill the hole we presume that there is. Although there is room for him on the bench along with d’Arnaud and Fletcher if we want him to be there while still getting a RHH OF. But since he has options we could conceivably get a RHH OF and another guy for the bench. Obviously it seems that we don’t have much money, but there’s roster space for it if we can find worthwhile bargains.
Didn’t Pillar make the team as an NRI? Might be some players like that brought in to compete.
Not what we would like, but probably what the financial situation will allow.
What are the consequences of exceeding the 3rd tier?
The team pays a slightly higher tax rate on the marginal overage, but far more importatly;
1. has their first pick in the draft set back 10 places AND
2. gives up $1M in international pool money
Love this analysis, Ryan. I agree with everything you said except I hear that Lee may not be ready at the beginning of the year. If Lee goes on the IL to begin the year, I would bet on Ynoa (maybe Kerr) being the one added. I really like Ynoa and Lopez for long relief.
I also love your list of $3M RH OF and agree with your assessment. That kind of decision tree is likely why we ended up with Luplow last year.
I’d also like to see some of the lost roster elements back on MiLB deals (Chavez, Allard, Chirinos).
With all the depth we have (especially at SP), there is a long list of guys that can fill in as injury replacements,
I do think Chavez will be back.
Solid analysis, Ryan. Stuff like this is why I keep coming back to get my daily fix.
Bravo zulu.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/braves-chris-sale-agree-to-two-year-deal.html#comments
Need details!
Edit: Press release https://twitter.com/Braves/status/1742926524918235273
Lends even greater credence to Ken Rosenthal’s comparison of the way the team views Sale to the way the team views Morton.
https://theathletic.com/5175739/2024/01/02/atlanta-braves-chris-sale-charlie-morton/
Frankly, I like this extension. Sale isn’t sexy, but he was actually quite good last year – far, far better than I’d realized till I looked at his numbers after the trade.
Apparently this lowers the CBT number by about $7M giving us a lot more options on the RH hitting outfielder
Anybody on here confident that you can calculate any change in how this affects the luxury tax? Now, the 2025 pay goes into the “average.” Did the 17 million sent by Boston “count” to reduce this year’s hit on the Braves by equal amount? How does the change in contract affect the calculation (if at all)?
No, but I should imagine that the front office have had their calculators out for most of the winter
It’s almost like they had a plan…
And as fortune would have it, I get to post gratuitous links to my lifelong crush. Tenuous song title and detail in the lyrics
“It’s never gonna be this good so just climb in”
What I read said that since his salary for this year went from 27.5 to 16, that’s what lowers the CBT hit. 2025 might factor in (I’m not an expert), but lowering 2024 by 11.5M has got to lower the tax number. The Braves still get the 17M from Boston, which means in effect we are paying him -1M this year. But that just helps our own books.
I think Big D is right. There’s a bigger impact on the 2025 CBT giving us more money to extend Fried or sign his replacement. (I know this sounds a little worshipy but) this seems to be another genius move that not only improves the situation for Sale (gives him a guarantee instead of an option) and improves the situation for the Braves with a reduction in the CBT cost. I think Sale was always going to be the Morton-replacement unit and now it’s for $4M less with no deferred money. AA also essentially transferred the deferred money into direct salary – another good move. The Braves get Sale for a third year at a severely discounted rate because of the money the Red Sox are providing. The Braves were already on the hook for $30.5M for two years for Sale and now it’s $38M for three years. Genius.
I’m reasonably satisfied with how this has all gone. I demanded at least a mid-rotation starting pitcher and I got one, and though I still long for AA to shove all his chips into the center of the table at some point, it’s clear he’s just not ever going to do that unless he has almost no chips left. Despite that, there has been a method to the madness here, and AA’s goal seems to be to keep the window open as long as possible rather than maximizing chances over the next few years. If you’re a full subscriber to the crapshoot theory, it’s a strategy you surely agree with. (I am not, hence the slight hesitation.)
I think Rosenthal lays out the strategy pretty much perfectly in the article AAR linked to a couple posts above this one. That’s the plan. Interestingly, it may result in the need to shove a bunch of chips in in a couple years if it doesn’t work as hoped, but a) AA will cross that bridge when he comes to it; and b) he can probably find a way to wriggle out of that situation without going all-in too, if we’re honest with ourselves.
Anyway, consider me satisfied. And he got Sale to restructure his contract so that we can add another bench bat, so that’s a plus too.
It’s hard to square crapshoot theory with the fact that the Yankees won 4 world series in a row or the fact that we were bounced in the first round like 14 consecutive times when we had mediocre starting pitching. But then you have the Marlins winning the world series in 100% of their first 2 playoff appearances and the Diamondbacks coming damn close to winning it with lol after Gallen. So maybe it is totally random. I would say everyone is an underdog against the field, but some are far longer shots than others. If the best you can do is shy of a 30% chance to win the world series, it makes no sense to shove all in for one chance rather than taking 3-4 15-25% chances.
I mean, if you wanna call Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz mediocre that’s up to you…
They are obviously hall of famers, and when they were together in the rotation, it was a terrific time to be a Braves fan. Our run of first round exits didn’t begin until their time in the rotation together was over. There were a couple of years there where both Maddux and Glavine were still elite, but most of our 2 decades of playoff misery was for teams that didn’t have a true ace.
Here’s the breakdown for the man who’s responsible for our Payroll tab under our header:
The old deal was $27.5M in 2024, w/ $10M deferred to 2039 & $17M from BOS. It included a $20M option ($5M deferred to 2040). It carried a Luxury Tax salary of $5.7M in 2024 b/c of the deferred money. It carried a potential Luxury Tax salary of $17.6M in 2025.
The new deal is below. The Braves pocket $1M in cash payroll b/c the $17M from BOS still applies. It carries a $2M Luxury Tax salary for 2024 ($19M AAV – $17M from BOS). It carries a $19M Luxury Tax salary for 2025, slightly higher than before. It’s a higher 2025 cash salary ($22M vs $20M option). And of course the potential team control for 2026 as well.
My estimate of their current 2024 CBT payroll is $269.9M, leaving them a $7M buffer before crossing into the 3rd surcharge threshold.
Ryan’s thoughts below.
I’m now fully on board the Aaron Hicks bandwagon. Had HUGE numbers against LHP and can still play the corners pretty well. Should cost around $4-5MM.
Thanks for the detail. I had hoped this might be what happened.
Ryan, you mention Hicks in the corners. From what you know, can he cover for 10 days in center (or a day here and a day there for a rest day for Harris, only against lefthanded pitching).
I would take Hicks but I’m still on the Kyle Lewis bandwagon, He’s younger (28 vs 34), can also play any OF position, and is a former ROY. Has a huge pedigree yet to be fulfilled. Hicks has a better past but Lewis might have a better future. Plus Hicks is from CA and Lewis is from GA.
I would just bring Pillar back or use Wall. Snit doesn’t like days off so these guys don’t play anyway, and even when they do, they won’t cost you a game. So why pay for it? Save it for the deadline.
Rob is correct. Save some room for deadline reinforcements.
Aren’t we still waiting on 2 players to be named later? One from the Pirates and one from the Angels? Aren’t these supposed to be significant additions?
Yes, good call. I wouldn’t pay any money for a backup outfielder. Anybody good enough to start is going to be too expensive, and if we have an injury, we can trade for such a player at that time. Also, if Kyle Lewis is ever going to be a good major leaguer, he is going to need someone to give him daily ABs for months at the MLB level. He has been so terrible for 3 years that no contending team is going to do that if they have any other option. I would be happy to have him mash at AAA for us and maybe get a cup of coffee here and there, but what is best for him is for a truly terrible team to plug him in and let him play and see what happens.
Only one now. Pirates and Braves settled for cash.
Jeff Schultz walks into the sunset.
https://theathletic.com/5162555/2023/12/27/atlanta-braves-falcons-hawks-georgia-jeff-schultz/
It was time. With everything he’d been writing the last 1/2 decade, he could’ve opened up a fairly successful complaint factory.
Nice analysis of offseason: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/braves-unconventional-offseason-roster-strategy-clearly-has-october-in-mind/
We have a new thread.