Alex Anthopoulos was interviewed on 680 the Fan this AM and in a very cryptic manner, let Braves fans know that he has a plan mapped out for the offseason. Here’s the quote:
I’m gonna Sherlock Holmes this sucker and go ahead and conclude that he’s not planning to change an historic lineup, considering that the entire lineup, plus some, will be back in 2024. Of the regulars, only Eddie Rosario isn’t guaranteed a spot as he has a $9MM option. However, there’s one thing that AA could be pondering when it comes to this lineup and that is rotating the DH to provide regular field rest for all.
While I’m not 100% sold on fatigue being the reason the offense tanked in the postseason, it’s at least worthy of debate, especially when we’re dealing with the king of vague statements. If this were to come to fruition, it would mean the end of the road for Marcell Ozuna as a Brave and the team would have to find an Adam Duvall type of player that can moonlight in all OF positions. Add Vaughn Grissom to that mix and you’ve got 2 guys that have the ability to cover all 7 positions needed in this scenario.
Would AA do that to aid in the idea of giving regulars 10-12 days of field reset? Who am I to know, but it makes a lot of sense. While I know there was a lot of emphasis on the gap between games from regular season to playoffs, fatigue is very different than rust and it’s anyone’s guess if it was one, the other, or neither.
Lights Out Relief
As the GM of the team that watched the Phillies throw flamethrower after flamethrower out of their bullpen, it would be hard to ignore how much that impacted the playoff. There might be help in this area coming early next year according to Justin Toscano:
If healthy, Tyler Matzek could provide some much needed stability in the back-end of the bullpen. Still, with Pierce Johnson heading to free agency (hope they re-sign him), there’s a real need to add a high-end back-end guy. If the Braves want to really make an impact in their bullpen, there are only a few game changers on the market and the biggest name is, by far, Josh Hader. Others noteworthy free agents are Craig Kimbrel, Jordan Hicks, Reynaldo Lopez, and Matt Moore.
Starting Pitching Stability
If Charlie Morton retires, the Braves will have a serious problem on their hands as Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder would be the only 2 regulars in the rotation that have been able to stay healthy. There are several starting pitchers that have shown the ability to pitch a full year’s worth of starts and do so at an above average rate. Lucas Giolito, Sonny Gray, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery top this list. I’ve said it prior to today, but Sonny Gray just screams Braves. He’s on the back end of his career, but has gotten better with age as his last 5 years are a remarkable testament to his ability to stay in the rotation for a full year and to produce at a high level. If AA were to offer him a 3/$66MM deal, I’d be down.
Your Thoughts on the Matter
Which of the 3 scenarios between rotating DH, Relief Pitching, and Starting Pitching do you think that Alex Anthopoulos is eluding to when it comes to his offseason plans?
You forgot that Nicky Lopez is still under team control, and is another guy that can play all over
I didn’t forget. I do think Nicky Lopez factors into some playing time, but 15-20 starts max unless there’s a serious injury.
Please Unsubscribe me from your services. This us not what I thought it would be.
Your Unsubscribe button is not working and keeps wanting me to Reload the Unsubscribe button. Tried it 6 times.
Please Unsubscribe me.
Thank you
What about a Max Fried extension?
I haven’t weighed in on all the kvetching because I’m still trying to overcome my disappointment but I have not changed my thinking at all. If Acuna gets on base, the Braves win. Acuna was on base one game and guess which one that was? The biggest difference in the series is that the Phillies had several disruptive guys when they were on base and the Braves had only one. Riley and Olson and Ozuna (and TdA and Murphy and Arcia) are not going to scare anyone on the basepaths. Rosario probably won’t. Only Acuna, Albies, and Harris have the ability to be disruptive. Albies and Harris generally won’t because they hit before Riley and Acuna. When baserunners are disruptive, the next hitters get better pitches to hit (and/or mistakes).
The second thought is also one I shared in game. A big rule of thumb especially in a short series is don’t let the superstar beat you. I would have given every bit of the “Barry Bonds treatment” to Bryce Harper. Especially because Bohm was not hitting a lick behind him and also especially with men on base. Turner and Castellanos may have still won the series for the Phils but Harper would have had zero RBI’s and HRs with me managing.
Everything else being talked about is just talk.
Freddie, Dansby… the writing is on the wall for Fried. The Carlos Rodon contract is the floor for Fried (6/$162). I sense something like 6/$180-190 easily for him. Anthopoulus ain’t touching that.
Alex,
Please bring back Craig Kimbrel he is the answer. He complents Minter Minter is a RHP and Craig Kimbrel is a LHP Craig can bring depth to the Bull Pen He still has his Numbers. Bill Edwards 😁 Editor Of The Palm coast Tribune. You would be doing yourself and team a large. Favor
Relievers & starters. I like Hader and Kimbrel for the former and Gray for the latter, whether Chuck comes back or not.
this is definitely the top tier!
I like the DH plan. IMO, the offense looked exhausted the last month of the season. Players can’t play every single game in that heat. But, AA needs to get Snit to buy into that plan. He seems to be ok with the players deciding when they play or not. He had Grissom on the roster for 2 weeks and barely played him. Ozuna had a great year. Now would be the time to sell high.
Speaking of Grissom, I think he gets traded for a pitcher. He’s too good to be on the bench (or in AAA). Would Grissom, Ozuna plus a couple of decent prospects get a good pitcher from a team that needs offense? I do think Charlie retires and I have zero faith in Elder being a reliable starter. Everyone wants AA to extend Fried but my guess is that Fried intends to go to free agency. He would have been extended by now otherwise. Rotation: Strider, Fried, New Pitcher, AJSS, Elder/Waldrep. They might need 2 starters. I REALLY wanted Sonny Gray the last time he was a FA. 2 -3 year deal might work.
Not worried about the bullpen. Agree on bringing back Johnson. Hate that a good prospect was wasted on Jimenez. Don’t waste any more good prospects on relievers.
1st) se what the market is for Fried, 2 years in a row he’s not reliable.
2nd) we need a reliable #2, metrics say that ain’t elder. AA never spends on pitching but a Japanese name would fit.
3rd) playoff Eddie was fun but if there is a better option I’m looking.
4) pitching, power pitching, no more “control” guys I want flame in the pen
Phillies picking up where they left off. If they don’t win it I’ll be shocked. And happy.
To be honest I’m not there yet on the rosterbating. Too soon I guess. Maybe we can add some guys with elite xDAWG advanced stats.
The Sean Murphy trade was a disaster. Let’s first agree he is one of the top 3 catchers in the league. But we had 3-4 major holes and traded 5 chips without filling any of them. In addition, we had no chips for a trade before the deadline where it was obvious we lacked at least 1 SP and 1 RP.
The farm is the top issue given our payroll constraints. Murphy turns 29 and we traded Contreras who was the top hitting catcher in the second half and only 24. AA gets a ton of credit as a GM. He signs great long-term contracts with players but his trades have been somewhere between lucky and mediocre or bad.
I think we have 6 holes: SS, LF, 2 RPs and 2 SPs and little bait. It’s actually not good. By the time the farm is rebuilt, the younger players won’t be young any more.
Agree. I’m glad someone else is saying it. Murphy is fine, but Contreras is probably the better player over the next 5 years if he isn’t already, and for cheaper. The fact we couldn’t trade for pitching when ours fell apart is what doomed us.
Sean Murphy was better in every facet of the game. His 2nd half slump was brutal, but overall, he was the better player and he’s definitely the better backstop. Time will tell, but I believe in Murphy’s overall skillset much more than Willy’s.
While Arcia slumped hard on the back end of the year, he was stellar defensively and this team can live with a SS that carries a mid-700s OPS that hits 15-20 HRs/year. Heck…that’s who Dansby was during his Braves tenure.
The Braves did give up a lot for Murphy, but to me, it was a brilliant trade. As AA said, when an elite defender at a premium position becomes available you have to take the plunge and go for it, even if that means giving up a fair amount in return.
Murphy had a great year. A 4.2 WAR player with a 129 wRC+ and great-to-elite marks in framing, blocking, and throwing is a super valuable guy to have. Sure, much of his production at the plate came in the first half, but he still played solid defense all the way through and posted good overall numbers.
Plus, it’s worth nothing that Contreras’ defense was an area of concern for the Braves. Everyone knew he could hit, but he’d never been above-average in any defensive metric, and because of that, the Braves evidently didn’t feel comfortable making him the catcher of the future. He did make massive improvements behind the plate with Milwaukee this year, some of which might have to do with their coaching staff. They’ve been known for helping catchers get better at the defensive aspects of the game.
To me, it’s comforting to know that after Travis is gone, the Braves will still have a catcher who will play great defense even if his bat goes cold.
The bottom line are three issues for the Braves.
1. They need leadership in the clubhouse.
2. Change the hitting coach and the pitching coach. There has to be better out there.
3. Add two new starting pitchers.
JU
The Braves had a historic offensive regular season. I don’t think You can blame hitting problems in the postseason on the hitting coach.
It’s not going to happen but until AA has the chance to change the manager, it doesn’t matter what organizational changes are made. Snitker doesn’t look at advanced metrics with importance as He goes With His gut more. It was a tremendous season but such a downer postseason.
Seitzer is not the problem. He is exactly the type of hitting coach you want. The homer philosophy does not come from him
Seitzer is probably the best hitting coach in baseball. Players come to the Braves and get better when they work with him. Kranitz can go. He does nothing but snooze in the dugout. When was the last time a pitcher came to the Braves and got better. Gausman left and became an ace. He was bad with the Phillies and bad with us. They need a younger, more energetic pitching coach.
To me, Kevin Seitzer is a key part of the Braves’ coaching staff. From what I’ve read/heard, he is especially good at taking directives from the front office and relaying them to the players in a way that is practical and helpful. His work, combined with the team’s homer-centric approach and insistence on swinging incredibly hard/trying to crush the ball, have resulted in a Braves offense that has continually gotten better over the past few years.
Trying to explain why the Braves are out of the playoffs is like trying to explain why a coin flip came up tails. I don’t expect AA is going to overhaul a quantifiably great team over 4 games.
It’s true that it’s a small sample, but there are some independent factors such as lack of pitching depth that jibe with what that small sample showed. That’s why I think spending on pitching is the direction.
For the regular season? Yes we need more starting pitching.
For the playoffs? No amount of pitching was going to overcome 8 runs in four games.
Just a three solid starters is what they need in the playoffs; just need the bats to not go ice cold.
Yes, game 3 was for sure going to be dicey once Morton went down, and we didn’t have the bullpen to cover 7 innings. So, I see those as areas to improve at the margins.
There’s no doubt the core is coming back, but AA is implying some kind of change. Love that the dude is never really satisfied.
And it’s quite silly to think Braves need coaching changes. What needs to happen is that whatever idea AA has that’s going to alter his offseason needs to have buy-in from the coaching staff. If it doesn’t maybe they’ll make some changes in 2025.
Don’t we just love the nasal gazing after a playoff loss (again)?
For those that have had short term memory loss, who was expecting the Braves to win it all two years ago? I defer yet again to the “crapshoot” propensity of the playoffs (traditional chapeau for Jonathan F), and caution to over reaction given the fate of the Dodgers, Rays and hopefully Astros
I will get my stat head on and try to compare the baseball playoff crapshoot with the English football playoffs – I’m sure there are parallels and false narratives in equal measure, but I think there’s something there, so watch this space. I will crunch the stats
Is there some argument that the 2023 Braves were built for the regular season and not the playoffs? I’ll buy that – see 2021 above. The Braves used their all time offense to cover up the holes in their pitching. That’s OK over 162 games, but as someone pointed out in an earlier blog post, that doesn’t work in a post season scenario and the manager has to flex accordingly (I think Snit made errors; I still want him back for next year – I can put him in touch with Elizabeth Day)
Finally, the Fried and Swanson extension comparisons warrant an opinion. The simple matter is that you can replace a beloved ring winning shortstop – a premier pitcher, not so much. Am I convinced? No. My heart says that the Braves should overpay for Max (dollars but not years). My head says that this ship has sailed, and that leaves a huge hole – but not until 2025. I hope there is a banner to hang in the meantime. I hope
A good bit of my frustration comes from the fact during the regular season our plate discipline metrics were much improved over previous years. Once we got into the box against the Phillies it all went out the door. I have no idea how to fix that. I trust that we’ll talk it over before the NLDS next year. I don’t think it’s Seitzer and agree with the previous comments. He’s been really good for us. The pitching will work itself out. We have money and can spend it.
I would agree with that. My one observation was that it seemed like often we were trying too hard to make something happen and getting ourselves out on pitcher’s pitches.
Rusty, it’s called “pressing” and I agree there was a lot and too much of it from the hitters. That is another thing that went the Phillies’ way. They had a plan and stuck to it. I don’t think the Braves had a plan. Even superstars and the best offense in baseball can benefit from a “plan” to focus on rather than trying to hit 5-run HRs every time up.
The team has leadership. Guys like Ozzie Albies and Travis d’Arnaud. And Charlie Morton. I wouldn’t fuss too much about “leadership”.
I also wouldn’t fuss about losing 3 of 4 to a red-hot Phillies team. (they’re wrecking everyone)
Fried is gone. But not until his contract is up.
I think a new veteran SP, a handful of RPs and a hit+field LF are on the way. I expect Ozuna to be traded. And a bunch of AAA starters are going to go too – Shuster, Dodd, Winans, Vines… maybe even Soroka. I believe only Smith-Shawver is safe.
New thought: How many top prospects would you trade for Juan Soto? (and start that package with AJSS)
I do not see the potential for improvement so much on the offensive side as on the defensive and pitching sides. However, we have enough players who may have overperformed their ability offensively that taking a shot at an upgrade is probably good.
I don’t see an Ozuna trade as likely, but possible. I think the urge to get rid of the contract is gone. On a player basis, having Murphy and D’arnaud cover DH (with maybe a few others roaming through) probably is close. However, probably nobody would offer enough for him to make it a move to get better in players. The only reason is to move the money to apply that money to pitching. So, a little more than a lottery ticket or a proven reliever is probably the top return.
Rosario is a below average player, overall. he is below average defensively for left field (a low bar) and therefore can’t play anywhere else, and can’t hit good enough to DH (except for against a righthander in an emergency). So, even though 9 million is not much, if you keep Rosario you don’t get much for your 9 million.
To this point, AJSS shows one potential problem. That is, he could be unplayable against lefthanded batters. At his age and experience, I actually expect that to get fixed with somebody working with him and getting a good change up or possibly a 2 seamer and cutter going (the Maddux just change the grip and rip).
Even though Soto showed some amazing early skills, he has stayed hurt and had long stretches of mediocre production. He is barely above Rosario as a fielder in left. He only has one controlled year left. ABSOLUTELY NO WAY i would give up AJSS for Soto, even straight up 1 for 1.
I personally love Juan Soto (absolutely hate facing him), and I would give up AJSS and more for even one year of him. Too likely that AJSS never pans out, and we can get a 6-8 WAR prime year of Soto who would immediately become our toughest out and most selective hitter. That has a spillover effect on the rest of the team. I don’t think it happens, and if it did, we couldn’t sign him. He wants to set a record, and he might with an MVP-caliber walk year.
@Cliff
I agree with your assessment of the defense. Riley, Arcia, MHII, Murphy were really strong, but Acuna, Rosario, and Albies were pretty bad. Ozzie falling off a defensive cliff is just odd.
I don’t think there are any easy answers. The Braves have a lengthy history of postseason failure (first round exits in ubiquity), capped most recently by epic failures by arguably the best two teams in probably two decades. If those teams can’t be successful in October, what’s the formula, then?
2022 NLDS, run differential: -14 (10 runs in 3 losses)
2023 NLDS, run differential: -12 (3 runs in 3 losses)
The pitching was more of an issue in 2022, but in both series, the offense has left a lot to be desired. I don’t know how you make your offense just show up when the calendar turns.
The way the Phillies just become the Dream Team in October, I don’t know if there’s any roster move or trade that changes the equation.
Phillies pitching has been phenomenal. They just aren’t making many mistakes. And their offense is clobbering anything in the zone. We were about this hot back in June/July – good times. Playing well when it really matters is maybe a skill, or maybe luck, I don’t know. If it’s just pure luck then I think we’d have had more than just 2021. I tend to think that the long history of choking has taken a toll on the franchise, players and fans alike. If this happens next year I think the fans might turn on the team.
Who is hot when can easily be luck, and a sample size of 2 postseasons is never enough to know. Rob Neyer did an analysis of Mr. October players years ago and showed that basically nobody sustained hitting better in the postseason vs their career norms if the sample size grew large, and that included some Big Red Machine players.
I think it is much easier to choke than to be clutch. I think players try pretty hard most of the time, and I don’t think Matt Olson can decide to become a .400 hitter for 3 weeks in October if he is a true .260 hitter. On the other hand, I have seen players suddenly look absolutely lost at the plate in the playoffs, and I think the stress got to them psychologically. So to me, being clutch is about not playing worse in the big moments. Playing better in the big moments is probably due to random variation.