With the offseason a little more than a week out, the Braves will have some decisions to make right away. Players that aren’t under contract for the 2024 season will become free agents the day after the World Series is complete. However, there’s a 5-day grace period before other teams can negotiate with a free agent that was not on the team in 2023. During these 5 days, teams also have to decide on club, player, and/or mutual options. The following 2023 Braves will be free agents or have options.
2024 Free Agents
2024 Options
- Eddie Rosario: Club Option
- Brad Hand: Mutual Option
- Charlie Morton: Club Option
- Collin McHugh Club Option
- Kirby Yates: Club Option
If the Braves choose to pick up Eddie Rosario’s club option, it makes sense to talk with Kevin Pillar about a return. However, I’m not sure the Braves keep Pillar around or if Pillar would even want to stick around if they go the route of an every day LFer. Rosario’s a tricky one. He had his best defensive year in a Braves uniform, collecting 3 OAA (Statcast’s defensive metric and the metric I trust the most). However, he also had HUGE stretches of non-competitive ABs. Still, the option is for $9MM and it would be hard to pass up at this point, unless the team has real plans to upgrade LF. Point being, if Braves pick up Eddie, Pillar makes sense. If the team grabs an everyday LFer, Pillar should look for employment elsewhere.
Jimenez had a good year for the team, but likely wasn’t the lights-out back end relief that AA envisioned when he traded Justyn-Henry Malloy for him (Malloy had an .891 OPS at AAA with a 21.2% BB-rate, 15.2% K-rate, and 23 dingers. He also played multiple positions….OOPS). I’m guessing AA will let Jimenez walk. From there…
- If Uncle Jesse or Uncle Charlie want to return, they’ll be back.
- Ehire Adrianza will either move on or sign another MiLB deal with the team. It’s obvious they value him in the org.
- Pierce Johnson is an interesting decision. He was, by far, the Braves best reliever down the stretch and carried a 6.4 K/BB rate. I expect AA to try re-signing him to a 2-year deal with, of course, a 3rd year club option.
- I can’t imagine the Braves will bring back McHugh after poor results and an injury scare.
- I fully expect Kirby Yates to be part of this team in 2024.
- Mutual options rarely work out, so I expect Hand to be handed his release papers.
Braves 40-Man Subtractions and Additions
When the World Series ends and all of the above happens, the Braves will have to make a decision on 9 guys that are on the 60-day IL. Those are Kolby Allard, Yonny Chirinos, Nick Anderson, Dylan Lee, Tyler Matzek, Michael Soroka, Kyle Wright, Huascar Ynoa, and Sam Hilliard. Here’s my guess:
Released (or traded): Kolby Allard, Yonny Chirinos, Nick Anderson, Michael Soroka, and Sam Hilliard
Kept: Dylan Lee, Tyler Matzek, Kyle Wright, Huascar Ynoa
With the subtracting of those 5, the above option decisions, and the likely release of fringe players like Jackson Stephens, Allan Winans, and Andrew Velazquez, the Braves will have some wiggle room for roster additions and I’m ready for the Hot Stove season.
Pierce Johnson is the only free agent that needs to be signed quickly as there will be interest from other clubs. Uncle Jesse will wait until spring to resign. I assume he has a job for life in the org anyway. That frees 4 spots. I pick up the options of Charlie and Kali Jr and dump the others giving 3 more open 40-man slots. I release the same guys you do from the 60-day noting that I offer them all spring NRI’s. I’m pretty sure Soroka will take it.
Other than De Avilia and mayyyybe Grant Holmes the team doesn’t need to keep 40-man spots for potential Rule V picks so we would only drop the dross from the roster to do them a solid or if we sign someone.
I’d love to see the Braves re-sign Johnson quickly. He was lights out with Atlanta this year, even if it was in a relatively small sample of 23.2 innings. His curveball was a super effective pitch. He threw it 58.9% of the time, so it’s not like hitters weren’t expecting it, but they just couldn’t hit it (.261 xwOBA against, 40% whiff rate). I feel very comfortable with the idea of him continuing to be a high leverage option.
As for Yates, if he does return, I hope he fixes the command issues that plagued him this year. His splitter can be nasty, and he definitely had his moments this year, but a 14.6% walk rate just isn’t going to cut it.
Rosario is 32 and I think he’s probably got one more $9m season in him. I’d rather spend more and upgrade LF myself. But if they want to put some money into pitching, Rosario, Murphy and Arcia are still a pretty good 7-8-9.
Would love to see the Braves spend as if they realize 2024 is their best chance at another title, but I am not expecting that to happen. Spending big means signing one starting pitcher such as Snell or Gray, one premium reliever, such as Hader, and upgrading LF, ideally with Bellinger. And hell, while you’re at it, extend Fried and with him our window another 5 years. What I am expecting is signing Gray, acquiring one hard throwing reliever, signing one bounce-back prospect, and picking up Rosario. I would still love to trade Ozuna for Soler, but that isn’t happening either.
I’m really starting to think that there needs to be a paradigm shift with how you construct the roster in the offseason. I can’t help but almost clearly see that winning 100 games is simply not a good idea. If you win 100 games, you’re doing something wrong. Win 90, win the Wild Card, and you’re much more likely to win the World Series.
Obviously we already know that AA leaves money out to buy at the deadline, but should we go further? Should they be tanking the roster in the first half by, say, giving rotation spots to Elder, Smith-Shawver, and Shuster, and if and when they struggle, you buy at the deadline? Put the bullpen together with duct tape and chewing gum. Don’t exercise the Morton option. Don’t re-sign Rosario and play a cheap platoon in LF.
So then when you’re .500 at the deadline, you take all of that money you would have paid for an entire season’s worth of all those guys, and you just buy the prorated version of much, much better players (and more players). The infusion that we made into the roster in 2021 coupled with getting hot at the right time (especially in the pen) is what won us a championship. Why aren’t we trying to do this every year instead of paying to win a bunch of meaningless games in April, May, and June?
There’s another option, too, along the lines of what Texas did. Start hot, have a swoon so that you end up with the WC and then get hot at the end.