When the news broke during the game that Orlando Arcia‘s HBP wasn’t serious, I was skeptical. Most of us on Braves Journal were. The dude took a 98 MPH FB right on the wrist. Surely something’s broken. Unfortunately, we were right. Arcia joins a HUGE list of unfortunate circumstances that have plagued this team since the beginning of Spring Training, yet this team has faced adversity and have come out on top in 9 of 13 games, which is good enough to be tied with the Brewers with the best record in the National League. Just in case you’ve forgotten all of the woe is me’s, here’s the list:

  1. Raisel Iglesias, shoulder inflammation, hasn’t played, 15-day IL
  2. Kolby Allard, hasn’t played Grade 2 oblique strain, 60-day IL
  3. Ian Anderson, IL and will undergo TJ surgery
  4. Michael Harris II, back strain, 10-day IL
  5. Max Fried, pulled hammy, 15-day IL
  6. Travis D’Arnaud, 7-day concussion IL
  7. Collin McHugh, shoulder inflammation, 15-day IL

Arcia will become the 8th player to hit the IL and it’ll likely be at least 2 months before he returns to the team. And yes, that really sucks for Arcia who, at 28 years old, was having a breakout start with a .911 OPS (gosh, that’s ironic), and solid defense. However, the old adage, “One man’s misfortune is another man’s opportunity” seems like the mantra of the 2023 Braves. I know that we Braves Journalers griped and moaned about the lack of depth that AA went into the season with, but I think we should probably go to our sock drawer, take out a pair, and shove said pair into mouth, because the depth has been tested and it’s answered the call.

A Series of Unfortunate Events Turn Not So Unfortunate

  1. Right at the end of Spring, Michael Tonkin (who I’d been hyping up despite lackluster ST results) was on the fence for a roster spot. However, when it was announced Raisel Iglesias would start the season on the IL, Tonkin’s time had come. In 4 games and 8.1 innings, Tonkin has carried a 2.16 ERA with a 0.48 WHIP. He’s also already been worth 0.2 bWAR.
  2. When Michael Harris II went on the shelf, I was bummed but also excited to see either Sam Hilliard or Eli White get an opportunity in CF. While Eli White did take Harris’s roster spot, it was Sam Hilliard that got the temporary CF job. Hilliard was one of 3 players that AA picked up this offseason that started their careers in the Rockies and their horrible development reputation is known throughout the scouting world. Hilliard had always hit the ball hard, but just wasn’t getting results. When AA’s advanced metric team got together, they noted a flaw in Hilliard mechanics where his body was diving toward the plate which made it difficult to barrel the ball regularly. They also noticed that Hilliard was greatly affected by the shift and would naturally have better results with the new rules. In 8 games, Hilliard has come to the plate 24 times and has 7 hits (4 of the 2-bagger variety), 3 BBs, and 2 SBs, which gives him an .893 OPS on the year. When Michael Harris II is eligible to come of the IL in a few days, Brian Snitker has a tough decision to make, but it really shouldn’t be that tough. Sam Hilliard needs to start in LF as he’s been the superior hitter and fielder, and it’s not been particularly close.
  3. With Ian Anderson and Kolby Allard both on the shelf that collects dust and Fried on the 15-day IL, the Braves have had to turn to Jared Shuster, Dylan Dodd, and Bryce Elder. And while we know that things didn’t go so well for Shuster’s 2 starts and Dodd’s 2nd start, Dodd had 1 strong start and Elder (who I’ve been critical of and I’ll gladly eat crow) has put up 2 phenomenal starts, which have probably solidified his spot in the rotation for the time being.
  4. Roughned Odor…man, I don’t like that guy. When Odor trucked Travis D’Arnaud, just like the Arcia incident, I thought, “There’s no way Travis stays in this game”. He did…but not for long. Later, we learned of the concussion and Travis landed on the 7-Day IL. At that point, Sean Murphy was seemingly being treated as a backup catcher. When the Braves traded for Murphy, it was said that Murphy and D’Arnaud would share the catching duties and get a lot of starts at DH when not catching. Unfortunately, the clogger of all things, Marcell Ozuna, was still…for some damn reason, getting the bulk of the DH bats. I’m not sure what was going on in Murphy’s mind, but his actions on the field didn’t seem like he was keen to that idea and in the 3 games since, Murphy has destroyed baseballs to the tune of a 1.262 OPS.
  5. Now, we get to the obvious. Vaughn Grissom was pulled from Gwinnett’s lineup last night and will be with the MLB club today, hopefully starting. Grissom, just like Tonkin, Elder, Dodd, Hilliard, and Murphy, just needs an extended opportunity to prove that he belongs. If his praise from Ron Washington and AAA results hold, he won’t have to wait long to prove that he should be here to stay.

Playing Roster Games

Let’s just pretend that Tonkin, Hilliard, Elder, and Grissom all show they belong and become roster mainstays and the others are ready to come off the IL. Who goes?

  • D’Arnaud’s easy. Chadwick Tromp will go back to AAA
  • Harris is easy. Eli White will go back to AAA.
  • Fried is easy. Danny Young or Bryce Elder will go back to AAA.
  • Michael Soroka: See above.
  • Collin McHugh: Here’s the start of it getting hard because many of the Braves relievers are out of options.
  • Raisel Iglesias. He’s started throwing and likely a few weeks away, but again, it’s good problem but still a problem.
  • Orlando Arcia. Should be easy as Ehire Adrianza isn’t too hard to replace.

Breakdown: The actual roster manipulation, outside of the relievers (who can likely always be IL’d with “shoulder blah blah”) is easy, but the playing time will be the most difficult thing to manage, but if I were in charge, I’d make it easy: Get rid of the bum. It’s that easy.

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