It’s Braves and Yankees in Game 2…but let’s get the elephant out of the room.
- 2015: 2.89 ERA
- 2016: 5.83 ERA
- 2017: 2.98 ERA
- 2018: 3.39 ERA
- 2019: 1.50 ERA
- 2021: 0.00 ERA
- 2022: 3.18 ERA
- 2023: 8.06 ERA
Has his velocity dropped? No. Has he been unlucky? Not much. Did he have Tommy John at some point? Yes. February of 2020. Has he been effective post TJS? Yes. A really strong 2022.
I asked my Yankees friend (loose term) what’s wrong with Severino and his answer was very Yankee-esque: He sucks. The weird thing is that he shouldn’t suck. The velo is nearly the same but everything else on his Statcast page is straight out of the North Pole. It’s been a rough year for the 2 teams in New York, but this turn of events might be the most shocking. Well, the Braves do love a fastball and apparently Severino’s been putting it on a tee all year so tonight should be eventful for the home crowd.
Bryce Elder counters Severino tonight and could really use a good outing. His ERA was sitting at 2.45 on July 3rd, but has since risen to 3.64 in only 6 starts and 3 of which he gave up 7 runs in 3.1, 2.2, and 4.1 innings. Tonight’s game is remarkably important for Bryce as he needs to prove that the first half of this year wasn’t a fluke.
Transaction a Day AA
This is one that brings me no joy to post. Ozzie Albies is easily my favorite current Brave and is right there with Dale Murphy as my favorite of all time. It somewhat surprised me to see Vaughn Grissom to get the call considering the fact that Brian Snitker has been notoriously stingy with playing time for any of the offensive call-ups. Peanut seems to think that Grissom and Nicky Lopez will split time. I have my doubts, especially if Lopez continues to hit the ball well.
Braves Lineup
Nicky Lopez gets the start at 2B over Vaughn Grissom and I’m not sure I see that changing if he keeps hitting.
Thanks, Ryan. I am excited to see what Grissom can do and hope he gets his at-bats. His last few weeks especially have been very strong at Gwinnett.
Fangraphs Roster Resource is thinking of Lopez and Grissom as a lefty/righty platoon. If that turns into reality then it still means few appearances for Grissom.
I’m still wondering what the heck is going on with Lee. Does he have some issue no one is talking about? Wouldn’t he be better than either of Chirinos or McHugh. I don’t think McHugh is gonna be around next year anyway so why not start now getting rid of him???
Yeah, Severino’s Statcast page is just ugly. That 7th percentile Barrel% is just…oof.
“if Lopez continues to hit the ball” is a big if. I know first impressions are important, but Lopez has had 10 PA with the Braves. Before coming to Atlanta, his seasonal OPS+ numbers were (all in 190 or more PA) 58, 51, 104 (BABIP 50 points above his career average), 59, and 70. He’s a slightly better offensive player than Rafael Belliard was, maybe closer to Darrel Chaney but with more steals, but I expect that within a week or two his numbers will come back to earth. When that happens, either Ozzie will have recovered or Snit will eventually give Grissom a chance. In the meantime, it’s not like the team will lose the division by playing Lopez.
“if Lopez continues to hit the ball well” is a big if. I know first impressions are important, but Lopez has had 10 PA with the Braves. Before coming to Atlanta, his seasonal OPS+ numbers were (all in 190 or more PA) 58, 51, 104 (BABIP 50 points above his career average), 59, and 70. He’s a slightly better offensive player than Rafael Belliard was, maybe closer to Darrel Chaney but with more steals, but I expect that within a week or two his numbers will come back to earth. When that happens, either Ozzie will have recovered or Snit will eventually give Grissom a chance. In the meantime, it’s not like the team will lose the division by playing Lopez.
I know it’s controversial, and that maybe I’m the only one thinking it, but look, I’m just gonna say it: Nicky Lopez is not going to finish the season hitting .700.
But the contrast between the Mets/Yankees and the Pirates has been very interesting over the last week or so. The NY teams are not good, and they are not playing like contenders. The Braves’ pitching has been inconsistent, but it turns out when you score this many runs, it mostly doesn’t matter.
As far as I can tell, based on the stats on the standings page on MLB.com, we are making headway towards leading the league in both runs allowed and scored. The Dodgers have one fewer game but we’re up by 30+ runs; the Padres have one more game, but we have only given up 7 more runs than they have, so maybe 10-11 more given the extra game? That’s doable.
I had never even heard of Nicky Lopez before two weeks ago, and based on the accumulated mass of evidence since becoming aware of him, I think there’s no clear proof that he won’t continue to hit .700.
Running Nicky out there for the groundball guys and starting Grissom with Strider/Morton makes sense. We know Snitger understands these concepts but never seems to do anything with them. Perhaps this time will be different.
This is a really good point/idea I hadn’t thought about.
With Ozuna’s recent surge, we now have 8 of 9 full time starters either over .800 OPS or close to it. With a .751 OPS, I don’t think Rosario will make it to .800, but everyone else has a legitimate shot (Ozuna, Harris, Arcia). Has there ever been a team with 8 of 9 starters OPsing over .800? I know OPS is not the be all, end all stat, but it definitely shows that we don’t have a real weak spot in the lineup.
Recapped.