Knowing How to Win
As that great sportswriter Jane Austen memorably said:
“It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a fan in possession of a great starting lineup must be worried about starting pitching.” Jane was, I think, discussing cricket, but the point still applies to its American cousin.
Charlie Morton’s amazing seven-walk, three-hit five innings of shutout ball has me thinking of the old “knows how to win” nonsense For those of you who assiduously read the comments, this is going to be redundant, so just skip to the next section.
Charlie’s performance was tied for the 27th worst WHIP in a scoreless game for a starting pitcher who “earned” the win. And many of the performances ahead of him are by really good pitchers: Vida Blue. Kenny Rogers, Nolan Ryan, Greg Maddux, J.R. Richard. Expand the list to pitchers who gave up 1 run and you can add Tom Glavine’s game here where he gave up 11 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings pitched and only one run.
Is that luck or a skill? To be fair, it’s obviously both.
Yankee Nightmares: Memento Mori
Just about everything went right for the Braves tonight. Max Fried pitched well after giving up a couple of hits and a run in the first. Rosario had the only homer (and was 3 for 5 with 4 RBIs) but a bunch of singles sandwiched around a d’Arnaud fielder’s choice which he hustled to stop the double play gave the Braves a six run lead in the third that was never seriously threatened. 2023 Folk Hero Nicky Lopez (subbing for the hammy-tweaked Ozzie Albies) was 3 for four with another 3 RBIs. That’s now a cool .700 BA with Atlanta and 8 RBI in 10 at-bats. I predict either regression or Cooperstown.
Now for the buzzkill.
The ancient Romans knew you’re never as good as you think you are when you’re winning. To quote Tertullian (pictured at the top):
He [the emperor] is reminded that he is a man even when he is triumphing, in that most exalted chariot. For at his back he is given the warning: ‘Look behind you. Remember you are a man.’ [Respice post te! Hominem te memento!] And so he rejoices all the more that he is in such a blaze of glory that a reminder of his mortality is necessary.
Tertullian, Apologeticus 33
The Braves dominated the Yankees 11-3 tonight. That’s great, but it reminds me, as so much does, of this game, an 11-1 World Series win over the Yankees that was followed up by a 4-0 shutout the next day and then… disaster. For those who don’t think the playoffs are a crapshoot (are there any of you left?) please tell me which team was better that year – and if you tell me the Yankees, I sentence you to a jail cell with Jim Leyritz… oh, never mind. He killed someone and got a year’s probation.
SmoltzWatch
He talks a lot. Most of it is sensible, but jeez! there’s a lot of it. I assume Fox pays him by the word.
RonaldWatch
Ronald, after today, has 159 hits, 26 homers and 55 stolen bases. There are only three players who managed to equal or exceed those numbers in a single season. Cesar Cedeno in 1974 got there on September 26th. Joe Morgan got there on September 28th, 1973. Rickey Henderson got there twice: on October 1st 1986 and October 3rd 1990. Ronald is going to blow by those numbers.
FYI: Cedeno finished 16th in MVP voting in 1974. Morgan was 4th in 1973, and Rickey was MVP in 1990 but got no votes in 1986.
Best-of-BothWatch
I wrote an offday piece about predicting the probability that Atlanta both scores the most runs and gives up the fewest in the NL. I’ve improved the model greatly since I first wrote that by including the quality of the opposition. The model is now much more accurate. Going into tonight’s games, here are the probabilities:
Since I talked about this last, the Dodgers have taken the runs scored lead. But it’s still close. Atlanta probability of scoring the most NL runs: 46%.; On the other side, the Braves have closed some ground on the Padres: probability of giving up the fewest runs: 13%.
Overall probability of both: 6 percent, down about 1 percent. The 11-2 game tonight will raise the probability. But to paraphrase another line from Tertullian: I believe because it is close to impossible.
Come for the recap, leave with an insight on an Early Christian Carthaginian. You’re welcome.
Thanks Jonathan. My views are pretty much the same as Tertullian’s.
Thanks, JonathanF. Noted Braves fan Soren Kierkegaard was also a big fan of Tertullian. He often quoted the line you refer to: “Credo quit absurdum.” I’m confident based on this that Tertullian is also a Braves fan.
Former Met Tug McGraw is remembered for the line “you gotta believe.” It’s reassuring to know that the sentiment originated with a Braves fan.
To quote Wayne Campbell, “Was it Kierkegaard or Dick Van Patten who said, ‘If you label me, you negate me’?”
Albies to the 10 day IL. It sounds like Grissom will be called up today. If this happens, my guess is Grissom will stay on the roster until they expand by 2 in September. When Albies comes back, Grissom would stay. I wish he would start working on playing in the outfield.
I’m not sure Grissom will be on the Braves expanded roster as his presence would be repetitive with Nicky Lopez there. IMO, Grissom will be here while Albies is on the IL and will go back down when Ozzie returns. I also expect NL to get the bulk of starts and for Grissom to be a “just in case” option, which is terribly unfortunate.
Since Snitker doesn’t really use his bench players, Forrest Wall has as good a chance as any to stick on the 28 man as a late-inning speedster.
Forrest Wall definitely seems to be a good option for the bench – who was the guy who came up in 2021 for pinch running that did not play in Atlanta the whole year? As noted, I think the only way Grissom is on the playoff roster is if he plays in the outfield. It doesn’t seem like that’s likely.
You’re thinking of Terrence Gore. He made one appearance as a pinch runner in one of the 2021 NLDS games against Milwaukee, and that was it.
I’m guessing Grissom will get some action against left-handed pitching, if we face any of that in the next 10-14 days.
“Regression or Cooperstown” is a great line.
However he goes, Lopez fits right in with the Braves’ stable of cheerful middle infielders.
I, too, remain scarred by October 1996. (And the final in Game 1 — the Andruw Jones 2-HR game — was actually a slightly more-bruising 12-1.)
But this Yankee team is a zillion miles away from that Yankee team. Really, only Judge & Cole could play for that bunch. Their ’23 lineup is the worst I’ve seen since the Stump Merrill Era.
I was kinda looking forward to tonight’s matchup b/c Luis Severino, previously a good pitcher, has been remarkably awful this season. Everything has gone wrong, including his confidence (as he revealed after his last rough outing). I know it’s baseball & anything can happen, etc., but if his confidence was shaken by the White Sox, it might be especially amusing to see what this lineup does to him.
PS. — The legend that is Nicky Lopez has been unleashed. And, thankfully, he can field his position better than Brooks Conrad ever could.
I went to the 4 games in Flushing w/ an ATL buddy this past wknd & we laughed out loud every time Lopez got a hit. That 3-run upper-deck shot damn-near killed us.
I was watching the MLB Network broadcast last night and Bob Costas mentioned that Aaron Judge is possibly the only Yankee who could even crack this year’s Braves starting lineup. Gleyber Torres is the only other Yankee in the top 10 in OPS (I think was the metric they were using on the graphic backing Costas up) if you combined the two teams, but you wouldn’t start him over Ozzie Albies. So yeah…the mid-to-late 90s Yankees this team is not.
I’d probably start Bader over Rosario and Stanton over Ozuna, but yeah.
JonathanF’, your recaps are consistently superb. And the reminder that you’re never as good as you think you are when your winning is always apt.
BUT— was it really necessary to cite October 1996 to make your point? “Buzzkill” is a gross understatement. That reminiscence should have come with a trigger warning.
I had no intention of doing that until the Braves got up 8-2. When they did that, my mind wandered to 1996, and I try, in my writing, to share both my joy and my pain.
Note that as I write this the Braves are up 5-0 tonight. The parallel continues.