Just like my last recap on Saturday afternoon, the Braves let the opposition put up a highly lopsided number when Spencer Strider gave up 6 runs in the bottom of the 3rd in a scoreless game. (Am I troubled by Strider’s troubles? Not much.) Like Saturday night, the Braves immediately bounced back with not-quite-enough runs and continued to give up runs and continued to get not-quite-enough runs to catch up.
Unlike Saturday, though, the skies opened up in Pittsburgh which gave me time to answer a question: what is your probability of winning as a function of the maximum number of runs you’ve scored in any one inning? In other words, how important is a crooked number and how crooked does it need to be?
Here are the results:
| Max Runs In An Inning By Either Team | # of games | Winning |
| 1 | 18434 | 0.6953 |
| 2 | 48968 | 0.7853 |
| 3 | 50797 | 0.8253 |
| 4 | 34007 | 0.8632 |
| 5 | 17366 | 0.8878 |
| 6 | 7874 | 0.9185 |
| 7 | 3295 | 0.9402 |
| 8 | 1353 | 0.9619 |
| 9 | 601 | 0.9767 |
| 10 | 252 | 0.9921 |
| 11 | 126 | 0.9921 |
| 12 or more | 77 | 1.0000 |
So if you want to be pretty damn sure you’re going to win a game, have a 12 run inning or more. But to the point of tonight’s game, a 6 run inning (so long as no one has a seven run inning or more) gives you a 92 percent chance of winning.
But once again some critical at-bats with men on (in a game in which the Braves outhit the Pirates 10-9) proved feckless. Feck. So Saturday was 8-6. This was 8-7. But it looked about the same, except for the precipitation.
RonaldWatch
A fairly rare 0-5 with an OBA of 0. RAJ only has 21 such days in his career. He remains at
August 7: 149 Hits, 25 HR, 53 SB
But there are still only four other players who have hit those three numbers in a season (Henderson twice, Morgan twice, Cedeno twice and Sandberg once.)
The rotation has certainly turned in three straight clunkers. The starters surrendered 18 runs in 11.1 innings. That’s not good! Like JonathanF, I am not much troubled about Strider, but Elder and Morton have not been very reliable over the past month.
But here is the silver lining: the Braves had a chance to win each of the last three games. The bullpen continues to be very strong. Relievers gave up only 3 runs in 12.2 innings, keeping the team in each game. The pen is an unsung reason for the team’s lofty record since May. And the offense is still doing its job. Although they didn’t average 7 runs per game as they had been, they still scored 16 runs in 3 games.
Thanks for putting it into perspective, tfloyd. They’ll be just fine.
Yeah, man…perspective is everything. And 16 runs in three games grant this club at least a 2-1 mark most of the time. Strider’s underlying metrics are better than the results he’s been getting and I think he will be fine. I am less certain about Morton and Elder. In fact, I would be more willing to see Elder throw in the post-season than Morton right now.
It was so frustrating that all the PGH runs in the 3rd scored after 2 outs. I kept thinking (even after Tonkin got in and grybo’d) that we could get out of this with just one out.
That and 2-strike hits and walks all combine for a perfectly frustrating evening.
I feel like we almost have to have a month-long stretch (or longer?) where we play near .500 . Would be a good retrosheet type of question. What’s the average worst calendar month record for any team that wins > 95 games?
Well, we’re creeping up on a month of average results, aren’t we? I’m ready to rattle off eight of the next nine!
The average worst month for a team that wins 95 games or more is (rounded) a 0.500 month. (Actually .49997)
15 teams that won 95 or more had one month below 0.400, most recently the 2022 Yankees (August)
Six teams never had a month under .600
The 2021 Giants, the 1936 Yankees, the 1969 Orioles, the 1927 Yankees, the 1942 Dodgers, and the always amazing and crapshoot-proving 2001 Mariners, whose worst month was a .667 July.
Thanks Jonathan. I would’ve guessed around .500 . Surprised the below .400 was that many. Worst month of .667 is insane. When and if that Mariners season is finally eclipsed, the pressure on that team to not get bounced early in the playoffs will be immense. In some ways I’ve been hoping we’re not that team.
Every team enters the playoffs with “But what happens if one of our top starters lays an egg in a short series?”
Few, if any, other teams will enter the playoffs with “Already this season, our offense carried our inconsistent pitching for an entire month–as long as the postseason lasts–to a transcendent W-L record against many of the best/hottest teams in baseball.”
Four straight worrisome starts.
Crapshoot is the new copium.
That double that was then ruled a foul ball was very odd, I need to get some clarification on how that decision happened.