Their’n
Break up the Reds! They’ve won 11 in a row for the first time since Sputnik; their potential Hall of Fame first baseman is back with a bang, and their rookie shortstop has the loudest tools in baseball this side of Shohei Ohtani. (And he just might have harder cheese.)
And they’re doing all this with Hunter Greene on the IL; the young flamethrower was almost certainly the most famous Red on the Opening Day roster, as Votto was out on injury rehab until just a few days ago. And they’ve been getting tremendous contributions from guys who frankly sound like they could’ve played baseball in Cincinnati at the turn of the century: Friedl! Senzel! Steer! They’ve even got a pitcher named Buck Farmer!
(Farmer actually grew up in Conyers and was a ramblin’ wreck in college. Actually, there are six Georgians on the roster in total, including one we know rather well, Lucas Sims. Catcher Tyler Stephenson, outfielder Will Benson, and utilityman Nick Senzel were all born in Atlanta, though Senzel went to high school in Tennessee. Benson went to Westminster, where he’s the second-best player in school history behind Gordon Beckham. Oh, and Alan Busenitz is from Watkinsville, outside Athens.)
Anyway, I don’t think you have to be a Reds fan to like these guys, especially as their recent success kicks more mud in the faces of the St. Louis Cardinals.
Our’n
Of course, we’ve got a hell of a likeable bunch ourselves, including the top vote-getter in the entire All-Star Game, a right fielder named Ronald Acuña, Jr. Turns out everybody likes him. And we’ve got a 20-year old Texas toeing the bump tonight. (Seems like we’ve got a 20-year old in a major role for the team every single year, doesn’t it?) Smith-Shawver will be duelling Luke Weaver, who grew up in DeLand, which means I automatically assume he knows Larry Wayne Jones, Jr.
The Rookie
The name to circle in the lineup Elly De La Cruz, of course, but his massive power is not unaccompanied by holes in his swing. His 30% K-rate is the kind of thing that all but kept you out of the league until recently. (Adam Dunn‘s career K-rate was 28.6%, for a Cincinnati comparison.)
Intriguingly, he appears to have compensated by swinging at far fewer pitches. He’s actually 10 percentage points below league average in swinging at pitches inside the strike zone, while he’s swinging at slightly more pitches outside the strike zone than league average, and he’s making less contact than average. And he’s been getting lucky as heck on the balls he’s hitting fair, as his BABIP is currently .457. That’s why his xwOBA is nearly 100 points lower than his wOBA, .396 to .300.
So my takeaway from all of this is: challenge the guy and don’t give in. Don’t hang one, don’t pitch backwards, don’t get cute. Come after him. Fastballs up and in and sliders low and away: there’s not a hitter in baseball who can hit one when he’s sitting on the other.
After all, that’s why Smith-Shawver got called up to the majors with just two pitches to his name.
That’s my scouting report, anyway. We’ll see just how smart I am once they play the game. One final question is about Sean Murphy, who pitch-hit in the top of the ninth and struck out. Will he be available off the bench? Or is there a chance he’ll DH?
Man, I didn’t realize De La Cruz’s BABIP was so absurdly high. That is NOT sustainable. Let’s hope his luck begins to run out in this series.
Let’s also hope the offense can beat up on Cincy’s pitching staff. The Reds’ starting rotation is currently 26th in MLB in fWAR and have posted a 4.56 xFIP collectively. We don’t necessarily have three aces starting for us this weekend, but I’ll take AJSS/Shuster/Morton over Weaver/Ashcraft/Lively any day of the week.
It’s hard to take the Reds seriously with this joke of a starting rotation they have.
That’s a pretty good first inning, offense! 😂😂😂
Hello, Cincinnati!
Big inning for Smith-Shawver here… wobbled a bit with his control in the 2nd and a clean inning here would be a boost.
Edit- so much for that. The non competitive misses are going to be his undoing
Pen time. Smith-Shawver does not have it tonight
Elly De La Cruz is for real.
How much longer? It isn’t like these are cheapies
If ASS is going to give up multiple homers every start then he will lose his spot to Soroka soon.
McHugh ain’t it, but there wasn’t much choice.
I can’t even be upset about De La Cruz and Votto. Couple more days of this and I could get so, though.
McHugh’s ERA is rising to meet his FIP. Before today, his ERA was roughly the same as last year, but his H/9, walk rate, and k rate are all much worse. Once Chavez and Lee come back, he can be IL’d indefinitely for all I care.
6 hits and 4 HRs. That’s just weird. And both HBPs scored last inning. That is unacceptable. The Reads make you throw strikes and then bangs them. Our pitchers are going to have to make more competitive pitches.
So far, de la Cruz is beating Acuna.
This could be a positively ugly series. A bunch of mashers against a duct-tape rotation and bullpen. The Rockies, they ain’t.
I was concerned that essentially our 3 weakest starters were lined up for this series and our bullpen options aren’t great either. This really could go poorly today and tomorrow especially
Looks like it’s our pitching that sucks.
And de la Cruz has a cycle.
5 walks and three HBPs is never going to cut it.
It’s not helping that when our guys do throw strikes the umpire won’t call them strikes.
Only having one LHP in the bullpen right now is not helping.
I can’t be mad. The Marlins blew their game. And the Reds are a great story. Eventually, there will be a book on De La Cruz. There sure isn’t one now.
Maaaaybe I got a little overoptimistic, huh?
Not even counting tonight…
Braves Starter A’s xFIP was 4.78.
Braves Starter B’s xFIP is 3.95.
In a previous thread, someone was saying that, in the future, the Braves should fake-DL Starter B to keep Starter A in the rotation because Starter B wasn’t pitching well…
Even if you could contort yourself into the belief that Starter A’s tiny sample somehow meant they were a better, more reliable option than Starter B, Starter A’s innings might have to be limited anyway.
Not that it’ll necessarily matter, but…
if that Jeffery Maier dipshit doesn’t stick his glove over the fence & come in contact with the ball, the ball very probably bounces hard off the wall, allowing d’Arnaud to score.
It mattered.
Worse than that, it was his freaking hat! He interfered with play trying to catch the ball with his hat like a total numbskull.
MVPacuña!
Well, this inning got fun.
Boom, boom, boom.
Ten runs on 16 hits so far… can they score one more before they make 4 outs?
And can we prevent the Reds from scoring at all?
And Jimenez immediately walks the leadoff man. He just is not a high-leverage guy.
God I hate how Snit handles one-run deficits. It’s absolutely insane.
Get to the ninth down just one and the chances of us tying the game seem like they’re almost 50-50. So of course this situation isn’t worth one of our best relievers. Gotta save them for when we’re up 8-4 tomorrow.
Well, I was wrong on all counts there, I guess.
Saying the Braves’ chances are almost 50/50 and the Braves losing doesn’t mean you were wrong…but that does mean you’re wrong about being wrong, so it evens out.
Not as wrong as my scouting report on Elly De La Cruz was!